Most of the NBA's offseason business gets done within the first week after free agency begins.
By this stage in early August, most of the money around the league has dried up. All that is left are free agents signing for the minimum to complete their rosters.
That is, except for one thing.
A quartet of restricted free agents remain on the market and trying to decide whether to take what their respective teams are giving them or take the risk and sign the qualifying offer at far below those values. Both the teams and the players are kind of stuck in this purgatory.
Josh Giddey (Chicago Bulls), Cam Thomas (Brooklyn Nets), Jonathan Kuminga (Golden State Warriors) and Quentin Grimes (Philadelphia 76ers) will all come to some resolution before training camp begins. But the "Restricted Four" are a more blatant example of how dangerous and precarious restricted free agency has become.
Players who have not established a clear place or value in the league, even with gaudy stats, can find themselves trapped in this purgatory, uncertain what they are worth on the open market but unwilling to take a smaller deal.
The Orlando Magic avoided these questions this offseason by agreeing to extensions last summer for both Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner. Those two players were unlikely to face this purgatory. The Magic were always going to take care of them.
Anthony Black, who is extension-eligible this summer and would become a restricted free agent in the summer of 2027, is a different matter.
In two seasons, Black has shown his potential as a defender and made some critical improvements offensively. But Black has struggled to firmly establish himself beyond his potential. He certainly does not feel like a sure candidate to get an extension next summer, especially considering the Magic's tight financial squeeze.
That makes this season a critical one for Black to establish his place and map out his future. Otherwise, he could find himself struggling in that fourth year to make his mark and secure a long-term future.
Black has a big opportunity ahead
Anthony Black will not be short on opportunity to do so. He figures to be a key player for the team in his third season. But the Magic ultimately want him to take over the lead guard role and be a bigger contributor on offense.
After being pressed into action throughout his rookie year, Black made some significant strides in his second season. He averaged 9.4 points per game. He shot 42.6 percent from the floor and 31.8 percent from three. He was solid on defense, which is where he makes most of his marks for the team.
Orlando will need a more consistent offensive effort. When Black was good, he was excellent. When he struggled, he could disappear.
The splits are pretty telling. In 39 wins, Black averaged 10.7 points per game, shooting 47.4 percent from the floor and 40.8 percent from three. In 39 losses, Black averaged 8.1 points per game but shot 36.7 percent from the floor and 21.7 percent from three.
Against the Boston Celtics in the Playoffs, Black averaged 8.2 points per game, shooting 40.5 percent from the floor and 2 for 13 (15.4 percent) from three.
With the Magic trying to contend, they need to see him take a major step up and show some consistency in his third season.
He is a player that everyone around the league is going to be watching. Zach Lowe named him one of the most intriguing players ahead of the 2026 season, hailing his athleticism, defensive instincts and potential on offense. It is about putting all the pieces together.
"I think for this team to really threaten to make the Finals, which is what they want to do and what I think what they can do in the East, the state of the East given what it is, he has got to become a true sixth starter, almost," Lowe said. "Part of that is the shots just have to be better, and part of that is can he find more ways to involve himself on offense. There's something here. For the Magic to hit, he's got to hit now. It's time."
There are a lot of eyes on Black. His potential is clear. It is truly about playing consistently and being a more reliable player. It is about turning potential energy into kinetic energy.
This is truly a critical season.
Magic's finances will come into play
It becomes only more critical because the Orlando Magic must begin considering his future with the team. Anthony Black is extension-eligible after the 2026 season. He would become a restricted free agent in the summer of 2027.
Orlando likely would love to bring back Black as it is right now. But the question always comes down to at what price? Is that something anyone can answer? And if the Magic are going to be this expensive, can they afford another big-time extension, especially for an inconsistent bench player?
Black's final year is slated at $10.1 million in the 2027 season. Even if he gets a modest raise to somewhere in the $15-18 million range, how much would that impose on the Magic's tax bill? Would that even be a range Black would accept?
A lot of these questions are not yet in focus. Black has to play out the 2026 season.
It is a big one for him because it will determine what his price range ultimately might be, whether the Magic offer him an extension in the summer or whether the Magic opt to move him and eliminate any uncertainty.
Orlando has already had to let a key player walk due to cap complications, Black could easily be its next victim.
There should be a lot of focus and pressure on Black to take a step up this season. The Magic surely resisted a lot of calls to trade him at the February deadline and in the offseason. They need to see how that investment pays off.