For several years, president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman has warned that the salary cap would come for the Orlando Magic.
After years operating well below the salary cap and not even concerning themselves with the tax, the Magic knew the bills would come due. If they drafted well, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs would come with an expensive price tag.
Indeed, all three received extensions for more than $30 million per year in the last two offseasons, with Wagner and Banchero netting max contracts.
Maintaining continuity and retaining key players further deepened the Magic's financial penalties under the new CBA. New contracts for Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter kick in next year. The Desmond Bane acquisition made for a fourth player making more than $30 million for the 2027 season.
The Magic will pay the tax for the first time since 2012 this upcoming season. They do not have to concern themselves with the apron, signing Tyus Jones using the non-taxpayer mid-level exception hard-capped them at the first apron. But the aprons will become very real next year.
It all means Orlando is not talking about winning a title as an aspirational goal. The team is talking about it because the window to win financially is now. The Magic must make the cost of their roster worth it before the price becomes too heavy.
And that cost will be heavy.
The Magic are likely a second apron team in 2027
The Orlando Magic's finances are not as dire as it all may seem. The team still has some flexibility to make roster moves and improve the team based on the results of the 2026 season. The Magic could easily dip back under either apron.
But that flexibility goes away pretty quickly, especially if the team is trying to win and improve.
Before getting into anything else, the Magic are already quite expensive.
According to Spotrac, the Magic have $186.0 million in guaranteed salaries for next season, assuming Paolo Banchero does not make All-NBA and activate the supermax. If he does, then the Magic's guaranteed total jumps to $194.1 million.
Orlando also has an additional $28.6 million in likely options and guarantees for Jonathan Isaac, Anthony Black and Tristan da Silva.
That makes for a guaranteed payroll of an estimated $214.6 million or $222.7 million. That blows past the projected $209 million first apron and is right above the $222 million second apron.
Orlando still has a little bit of flexibility. And if the cap continues to rise, the Magic should find some minor relief. But the reality is that Orlando will have difficulty adding players. They are going to deal with the restrictions of the aprons moving forward.
The biggest restriction in the first apron is that teams cannot trade players and take back more money than they send out. They are also limited in free agency to the taxpayer mid-level exception, which hard-caps the team at the second apron. That will make it difficult for the Magic to add anyone in free agency next summer.
The second apron is even more restrictive.
Teams are not only limited in being unable to take back more money in a trade, they also cannot aggregate players (trade 2-for-1 -- the Magic were hard-capped at the second apron for trading two players for Desmond Bane). They also do not get any access to the mid-level exception and can only sign players to a minimum contract.
There are even some restrictions on signing minimum players during the season that eliminates them from the "mercenary market" of buyouts later in the season.
This is all to say, the Magic are deep into the apron territories and everyone has to be aware of these rules moving forward. The team they are rolling with for the 2026 season is likely their team for the next few years, with only minor changes.
Orlando can still move some things around -- Jonathan Isaac's $14.5 million is a big one to move around. But there comes a point of diminishing returns. And Anthony Black is extension-eligible in the summer of 2027. Orlando has to be preparing for his new contract in 2028.
Unless a big sell-off is coming -- and it is always on the horizon under the new CBA -- the Magic are going to be dealing with these restrictions for the foreseeable future.
Apron trouble means the Magic must get results
These things are not hard to foresee. The Orlando Magic knew they would have to pay the piper for all of their draft picks and these big extensions. This is the cost of being a good team in the NBA.
The question is how long will the Magic be wiling to pay those luxury tax payments and deal with all of these various restrictions.
Orlando's top brass so openly talking about the team's desire to win a title is not just about having a roster that seems poised to improve and grow. It is also a financial reality that the team is too expensive not to deliver results.
The teams that should be paying this much in payroll are the teams that are meant to be competing for a title. There will be tough decisions ahead because of finances, but the Magic should be worried less about those and focused on this moment of trying to push this team to a title.
Those tough decisions are for a few years down the road.
In other words, Orlando's title window is open now, whether the team is ready or not. The team's payroll dictates the Magic must be competing for a title -- at least next year, when the team is likely to be in the second apron.
The Magic's hopes for winning a title are not merely talk. They are a necessary reality.