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Clutch factor will decide Orlando Magic's playoff fate

The Orlando Magic showed grit and resolve to push the Oklahoma City Thunder. But they were missing that extra element the defending champion Thunder clearly have.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made all the clutch plays to lead the Oklahoma City Thunder past the Orlando Magic.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made all the clutch plays to lead the Oklahoma City Thunder past the Orlando Magic. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The difference between winning and losing in the Playoffs is often quite small.

It is a made shot after a big stop. It is a run at the right moment with too little time to answer. It is the calm and composure to close things out. It is, frankly, the ability to get your best player the ball in that most opportune moment. And having the role players step up exactly when they are needed.

The Orlando Magic could feel the chance at an upset against the Oklahoma City Thunder in their hands, trailing by four with 3:26 to play. They were right in the game.

And then in a flash, the Thunder could not miss, extending the lead out to 10 in a little more than a minute.

That is the difference between winning and losing. A missed free throw from Wendell Carter, a three from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a missed three from Tristan da Silva, a turnover from Paolo Banchero that leads directly to points.

In a blink, the Magic's chances to win disappeared. The Thunder beat them with extreme poise and execution for a 113-108 victory at Kia Center on Tuesday.

"The ball didn't bounce our way tonight," Desmond Bane said after Tuesday's loss. "SGA made some tough shots. We had some fouls and a couple of turnovers. That's how the game goes. The only thing you can ask for is a fighting chance. They executed better than us down the stretch."

This is the kind of playoff battle the Magic are preparing for.

Their series may very well come down to whether they can win the final three minutes of a Game 3 or 4. In a playoff series. That is a quarter of your chance for failure or success. Series turn on the ability to close games out and steal clutch victories.

The Magic are certainly capable. They have succeeded in clutch situations this year.

But the Thunder gave the team a stark reminder of how fine the margins are. And how good the best teams in the league are at winning them.

Clutch moments

This has been a season filled with plenty of clutch moments for the Orlando Magic.

They had their share of game-winners -- whether it was Desmond Bane's winners against the Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz, or Paolo Banchero's game-winners against the Brooklyn Nets or Indiana Pacers, or Wendell Carter's winners against the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks. There are heroic moments aplenty this season.

The Magic have found themselves in a lot of close games this year and have found themselves on the winning end of a lot of those games.

Orlando is 23-12 in clutch situations, second in clutch wins and seventh in clutch games played (when the game is within five points in the last five minutes). They have largely built their record on winning a lot of close games -- 23 of 38 wins is 60.5 percent.

That should have the Magic plenty battle-tested for the Playoffs.

While Orlando has a sterling clutch record, the team has a -0.7 net rating in clutch situations this season. The team has a 109.6 offensive rating in these situations (when the game is within five points in the final five minutes). The team is not typically able to score down the stretch.

The Orlando Magic tend to rely more on their defense. And their clutch games resemble more of Saturday's win over the Miami Heat when they have to hang on in the end.

There have been a lot of games like that where teams pick up the pace desperately trying to get back into the game, and the Magic have had to hang on.

"That's the game," coach Jamahl Mosley said after Tuesday's loss. "A big stop, a big shot down the stretch, that's what happens. You look back at the Cleveland game, that's what it tended to be. One shot made, one shot missed. Tonight that was very similar. Our ability to get stops down the stretch and make sure we take care of the basketball at all times to get those possessions."

The Cleveland game was indeed like that, with both teams hitting big shots and ultimately Desmond Bane hitting the clinching three. But that was another game the Magic had to hang on as the Cavs made a late push at what felt like a comfortable lead.

Orlando has had to face a lot of those this season playing with a lead. It is playing from behind and needing to rally themselves that the team has struggled.

Playing from behind

It did not take long for the Orlando Magic to lose grip and control over the game Tuesday night. The Oklahoma City Thunder can attack and take control very quickly, and it only takes a few mistakes to change things.

Orlando had only two possessions before Oklahoma City pushed ahead by 10 in the fourth quarter. From there, the Magic were simply trying to stay in the game, unable to cut the deficit down in time.

But it was similar to other parts of the game. Those clutch moments were only similar to other points when the Thunder took control.

Oklahoma City used an 11-2 run late in the first quarter to go up by seven.

The pain continued with the Thunder opening the second quarter with a 19-5 run to go up by 18. Paolo Banchero led the team back into the game to trail by one at the half.

But that set the tone for the uphill climb for most of the game.

When Orlando took a seven-point lead in the third quarter, Oklahoma City answered with 7-0 run to tie the game in roughly 2.5 minutes. The Thunder closed the third quarter on a 15-2 run to take a six-point lead to the fourth quarter.

There were simply too many of these spurts the Magic had to make up. And that continued to the end of the game with the game on the line.

"We had a couple of good looks that didn't go in, and they converted," Paolo Banchero said after Tuesday's loss. "You just have to give them credit, obviously. We would like to make some more shots and convert on some more looks. You have to tip your cap sometimes. He was making a lot of tough shots for sure."

That Orlando was good enough to do so is a sign of their talent. That the team had to do so throughout the game is a sign the team lacked the details that diferentiate it from championship-level teams.

Orlando is indeed still reaching for that level. It will need to find it to succeed in the Playoffs.

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