The talk around the Orlando Magic last year was that this was the can't-miss riser in the league.
The addition of Desmond Bane seemed like the perfect addition for a young team that needed an offensive jolt. It was the kind of big swing a team that is on the cusp of contention makes to get over the top.
Maybe the Magic were not quite at that level, but everyone could see the vision. They could receive the benefit of the doubt for an injury-filled 2025 season and a stronger-than-expected showing in the Playoffs against a title contender in the Boston Celtics.
It is safe to say that benefit of the doubt is spent.
The Magic disappointed to say the least in another injury-filled season. They won 45 games and looked inconsistent in the process to finish eighth in the East. Their playoff series showed their potential to be an impactful team, only to be let down again when Franz Wagner got hurt.
There is a lot of doubt around this Magic team.
Most of the early preseason predictions have them returning to the Play-In Tournament for a third straight year. Some are willing to say they will miss the postseason entirely -- a complete disaster only saved by the slim hope that this year the Magic get to keep their pick.
There is a lot of pressure for Orlando to perform. That would be there regardless.
But there is considerably less pressure coming from outside the building. And the reality remains that this is still the same roster that held so much promise last year.
That is something the Magic are betting on. And something even the most pessimistic can still acknowledge is a path forward.
Standing pat and delivering?
The Orlando Magic are certainly betting that the 2026 season was some disastrous injury-filled season. They hope that it is a blip on the radar and their best was hidden under that inconsistency.
The team mostly stood pat this offseason, losing Moe Wagner and Jett Howard while acquiring Nikola Vucevic in free agency.
Most of the analysts, including Sam Vecenie on Game Theory, gave the Magic a static C grade for their offseason while admitting they need to see the team play before they make any final judgments.
There is that little bit in the back of everyone's head. What if this is the year things click for them? What if the issue was truly a change in voice and leadership on the bench? What if this team is healthy?
Even the most pessimistic analysts have not quite been able to quit this team. They all have to qualify that the world exists in which the Magic have that breakthrough at long last.
The Magic, like their star player in Paolo Banchero, have gone from a team that is so overrated or disregarded that they are kind of underrated.
This is a team that, despite missing a key player for the majority of the season, still won 45 games. This is a team that, despite all the reported frustration behind the scenes, still managed to finish a game behind the 5-seed in the Eastern Conference.
The margin between a horrific result and some measure of progress was not that great.
Even in an Eastern Conference that will see a resurgent Indiana Pacers and an improved Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers, the Orlando Magic should not be so easily dismissed. They should remain right in the mix too.
What needs to happen to shock the league
As the offseason has hit its dog days where everyone is searching for content and the bustle of the summer transaction period has died down, there is some reappraisal of those early predictions.
Maybe the Orlando Magic can be a surprise team. Opinions are starting to come around.
"I think Orlando ends up a top-5 seed in the East," Tyler Rucker of No Ceilings said on their podcast. "I think this is a classic example of a team that everyone thought was going to blow up last year. I think everyone was expecting them to blow up because of the Desmond Bane trade and it's time for Paolo to take the leap and Franz. They had a year of nightmares: he's hurt, he comes back, another guy gets hurt. You get a new coach in there that I'm a really big believer. I think this team is poised to explode."
A lot of things will need to happen.
The team will need to click with its new coach in Sean Sweeney.
Even Franz Wagner admitted the team needed a new voice after five years with Jamahl Mosley. The coach had lost some of his juice.
Sweeney is expected to bring a more serious and detailed approach to the team. But nobody is quite sure how things will work out.
The consensus around the league is that Sweeney is as capable as anyone to fill that seat and help the Magic reach their next level.
Paolo Banchero will need to greatly improve. While he remains typically quiet at his home base in Seattle, Rucker said he has heard good things about his offseason. He would be as poised as anyone to make a statement season to silence doubters surrounding him.
Franz Wagner is also doing his work quietly in Germany -- peaking out for an adidas basketball event this weekend -- but he is due for a major bounce-back season after his injury-filled year last year. Wagner is also in his first offseason without any international basketball responsibilities.
This is also still a very young team.
Anthony Black had a breakout season last year and is poised for more stability after ending last season recovering from an injury. Tristan da Silva had a solid season and could be poised for another year of growth.
The Magic had plenty of reasons to stand pat and stay invested in their group.
The team showed hints of that high upside everyone believe in last year. But they were merely hints.
This season's success or failure will come down to who this team can be on a regular basis. That is where a new coach and a chip on their shoulder after a disappointing season are plenty of reason to be cautiously optimistic.
Ultimately, the Magic must prove themselves. Everything is earned on the court.
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