The last big question of the Orlando Magic's offseason has little to do with the team this season.
That roster is set, with the team already filling out its training camp roster and beginning to build its G-League roster (the team will officially name its new coach soon, with Dylan Murphy heading to Michigan).
Most of the Magic's big questions have to do with what happens beyond this season. How will the team perform and what will it mean for the team's future construction? How will the Magic approach the aprons?
The first point of that debate hits a deadline in October with Anthony Black's extension deadline.
Black is a player who is tough to value. He had a breakout season last year after two development seasons to begin his career.
Some think he could elicit a $30 million contract similar to the deal Jalen Suggs got. Others think he might end up closer to $20 million per year.
The answer is likely somewhere in the middle. The trick is negotiating to that number.
What will help swing things one way or the other is the market and what other players get in their extension negotiations.
The first real comparison and market setter for a player like Black came in Friday.
ESPN's Shams Charania reports that Keyonte George has agreed to a five-year, $157.5 million deal with the Utah Jazz. That averages $31.5 million per year.
That will certainly be more than what Black can expect. But that has now set the market for guards in this extension market.
George was likely to get more than Black anyway. He plays a bigger role for the Jazz and has greater counting stats. But that certainly sets an upper bound ahead of the October deadline.
It has been a fairly quiet summer for the Draft class of 2023. Victor Wembanyama inked a max contract (but without the Rose Rule) in an obvious move for the San Antonio Spurs. And Amen Thompson signed a five-year, $208 million extension with the Houston Rockets.
Keyonte George will not be the last player in this draft class to get an extension -- expect Brandon Miller and Ausar Thompson to find deals and perhaps even Cason Wallace, a much closer comp for Black's future deal.
But now there is a deal on the table.
Black and George
Keyonte George was a player many Orlando Magic fans had targeted with the team's two picks in the 2023 NBA Draft.
George came out of Baylor as an undersized guard with good scoring chops, but a need to improve both his shooting and his defense. Orlando opted for the jumbo guard style of Anthony Black and the sharpshooting of Jett Howard. George slipped to the 16th pick.
George got ample opportunity with the tanking Utah Jazz and has delivered as a scorer, putting all the pieces together last year. He is third in his draft class, averaging 17.2 points per game.
He has steadily increased his scoring average, hitting 23.6 points per game while shooting 37.1 percent on more than six 3-point attempts per game. He was the player teams worried about with the often-injured Jazz.
After acquiring Jaren Jackson Jr. last year and pairing him with Lauri Markkanen in the frontcourt, Keyonte George is a critical player for balance in the backcourt. The addition of Darren Peterson in the draft only adds to the growing talent in Utah.
George was certainly worth the price to the Jazz as they establish their core.
Black was never going to hit those marks on a Magic team that had more established stars. George had a more defined and translatable skill set entering the league. Black was a pure potential play.
That potential began to cash in last year.
Black averaged a career-high 15.0 points per game. He took more than 10 field goal attempts per game for the first time in his career. He clearly was not lacking confidence.
In the 28 games from Nov. 14 (Paolo Banchero's groin injury) to the Berlin game (when Franz Wagner returned the first time), Black averaged 17.6 points per game while shooting 46.4 percent from the floor and 35.6 percent from three. He had more 20 point games in the 2026 season than he had in his first two seasons.
It would be fair for Orlando to see if Black can do that again, especially in the context of a fully healthy roster as the team's sixth man. Or perhaps pushing for starter's minutes.
But that is one of the reasons why the Magic may not be rushing to give Black a new contract. Without a clear contract comparison in this market, it makes it harder to figure out where Black sits.
A tight cap situation
Keyonte George should get more than Anthony Black. He has had a stronger start to his career and means more to his team than Black does at the moment. Black is not getting a $30 million contract, even if that was once thought of the upper bounds.
But there is a negotiation going on behind the scenes.
Most around the league expect the Magic and Black to take things to restricted free agency next summer -- although Jake Fischer of Bleacher/Report noted some optimism that a new deal might come.
The deadline is Oct. 19.
Black's negotiations are not happening in a vacuum. They are happening while the Magic are in a difficult situations.
Orlando is already approaching the tax line for the 2028 season with just seven players under contract as one of the most expensive teams in the league.
Orlando has to get its books in order before worrying about Black. They are budgeting for Black and it is clear they will have to make some moves to make it work.
To be clear, if the Magic believe in Black, they should take care of him and make those cap maneuvers when they rise up. Ultimately, the team wants talent and if they believe they need Black to win a championship, they should sign him now to what they think he is worth.
There does seem to be this wide gap. And Black still has a lot to prove.
A market has been set now though with this rookie extension. Log it as negotiations surely continue.
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