When the Orlando Magic woke up on Nov. 30 (last Saturday), they were probably a bit surprised to see where they were.
Not that they did not expect to compete for homecourt advantage and sit in third at 14-7 after 21 games. That was always the goal and what the Magic believed they would be able to accomplish this season.
It is one thing to have ambitions and goals, it is another to go out and achieve them. Especially with all the curveballs a season can throw at you.
Nobody could have guessed that Paolo Banchero would start the season on a heater only to go down with a major injury five games into the season. Nobody could have predicted how the team would respond to that and that they would find their rhythm nonetheless.
It is a credit to the Magic then that they rolled with those punches. They remain on track to accomplish that goal of getting homecourt advantage.
The first quarter of the season was about survival. It was about showing the maturity and poise of an experienced playoff team and surviving this first big hurdle they faced.
They somehow made it through it all. They look capable of continuing that trend and solidifying their spot.
The second quarter of the season then will be about integration and establishment.
The news of Franz Wagner's torn oblique throws a wrench in these plans. The Magic will go at least a few weeks without either of their key stars. The Magic will have to figure themselves out all over again and maintain their place in the Eastern Conference pecking order.
In the next month to the season's midpoint, the Magic will work to establish themselves as a top-tier team in the conference and maintain their spot in the Playoffs.
They will also likely get a boost from Paolo Banchero's expected return in late December. That will take an adjustment to reintegrate their star player back. One they hope will be quicker now that they know Wagner is out for at least the next month.
That too will come as the schedule stiffens up, even with 11 games at the Kia Center on the horizon, including an extended homestand after the NBA Cup games.
Where the Magic ultimately finish in the standings likely gets determined in the next 20 games.
Orlando started last season 14-7 through the first quarter of the season. But they went 8-12 in the second quarter of the season as injuries and illness hit the team. That sent them stumbling down the standings, forcing them to rally to clinch the 5-seed late in the season.
Orlando is facing a similar challenge this year again.
When the Magic talk about valuing every game on the schedule, this is the part of the season they were highlighting. The Magic cannot afford to slip as teams around them start to find their footing.
The season's second quarter will be as important as any other. The Magic have established themselves in the Eastern Conference pecking order. They got off to a blistering start.
The next 20 games will determine where their season ends and how good they can be. But first, they have to answer several critical questions.
5. When will Paolo Banchero return?
This is probably the central question for the Orlando Magic in the next 20 games. Especially with Franz Wagner now out for at least the next month with a torn oblique. Everyone is on pins and needles waiting for Paolo Banchero's return.
The team said Banchero would be re-evaluated in 4-6 weeks after announcing his torn right oblique on Oct. 31. That re-evaluation has possibly already happened without much fanfare publicly. Banchero told reporters on the Magic's last road trip that he has started doing stationary dribbling drills and set shots.
To be clear, he has not reported he has started running, cutting or doing anything truly basketball-related. He told Marc Spears of Andscape he is hoping to return around Christmas. Even by the most aggressive estimates that is still a few weeks away.
But the timing is coming for Banchero to make progress. Orlando having a six-game homestand after their NBA Cup games is a perfect time for the Magic to get some practice time in and get Banchero up to speed.
With the homestand straddling that Christmas timeframe (the Magic are home from Dec. 19-Dec. 29), it is fair to think Banchero is targeting a return sometime during the homestand. At the very least, Orlando should be hopeful to have Banchero at the start of the new year.
It has been easy to forget just how good Banchero was in his five games before the injury. He is averaging 29.0 points per game, 8.8 rebounds per game and 5.6 assists per game with improved efficiency—49.5 percent shooting overall, 55.2 percent effective field goal percentage and a 59.0 percent true shooting percentage.
A 50-point game helps with all of that. But there is no reason to think Banchero will not get back to this level shortly after reintegrating into the lineup.
4. Can the Orlando Magic bank wins against playoff teams?
The Orlando Magic's early season schedule was projected to be tough. They played 16 of their first 25 games on the road. Their second quarter of the season is much more home-heavy, where the team is 9-0.
But the one thing the third-place Magic are missing is a bevy of marquee wins. Orlando has feasted on the worst teams in the league again. But they still have to prove themselves against the league's best teams.
That was something put in the spotlight with the team's 121-106 loss to the New York Knicks on Tuesday.
Orlando will play 13 of the next 20 games against teams with records better than .500 (that includes the loss to the New York Knicks on Tuesday).
The Magic are only 3-6 against teams with records above .500. Only the Milwaukee Bucks at 2-8 have a worse record against winning teams. The Magic still must prove themselves against the teams they will need to beat when the playoffs begin.
Everyone knew this part of the schedule would be especially difficult. This is a proving ground for the team. And it has only been made harder for the team with Franz Wagner out. But the Magic still have to prove they can beat the best teams in the league—stars or not.
The injuries this team is facing will make this period much more difficult to get an assessment of this team. Orlando will surely steal some games throughout the process. But the Magic are going to find out who can step up and who cannot regardless of how healthy they might be.
3. Will the point guards power the offense?
The biggest obsession among Orlando Magic fans throughout the offseason was the need to find a point guard and a playmaker. That the Magic opted to use their free agent capital to sign Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and trust Jalen Suggs to handle the point guard duties did not quite those calls or those concerns.
As trade season opens, everyone is going to be thinking about filling in a point guard and helping stabilize an offense that ranks 24th in the league at 110.3 points per 100 possessions.
While the Magic are happy to lean on their two forwards in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner to have the ball in their hands and attacking, they still seemed to need someone who could set the table. Someone at least more experienced and natural in making sure the offense hummed along.
The Magic seemed content to go with the experiments with Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black as the team's two main point guards. They have both had their moments but they have also both struggled.
In the end, the Magic entrusted Banchero and Wagner even more to man the point and run this team. Suggs and Black tend to work as the main ball-handlers only in transition.
That is going to get thrown out the window with Wagner out now with a torn oblique. The Magic will figure out if Suggs and Black can take over as the lead guards on this team.
And this experiment will come to some resolution during the next few weeks with Banchero and Wagner out. The Magic need to see whether either of these guards can take this mantle or whether they need to address this weakness to take the next step.
2. Will Goga Bitadze supplant Wendell Carter in the starting lineup?
The Orlando Magic have a lot of depth. And that is a good thing. But it also means not everyone can play.
The injuries on the Magic's roster have forced the Magic to use every bit of this depth. And that has caused them to avoid some key questions.
That is what has happened since Wendell Carter returned from a plantar fascia injury. The Magic have played Wendell Carter alongside Goga Bitadze to some success. But it is clearly not the cleanest fit.
The Magic have not seen the best of Carter at all this season. He is averaging a career-worst 7.7 points per game although his rebounding has bounced back to 7.8 rebounds per game. Carter is shooting 50.8 percent from the floor but only 19.2 percent form three.
Carter has looked out of rhythm and uncomfortable at power forward.
In his stead once again while Carter was out, Bitadze played superbly. Bitadze is averaging a career-best 8.2 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. While Bitadze is limited offensively, his defensive playmaking is hard to ignore, averaging 1.7 blocks per game.
Most fans are clamoring for Bitadze to be the permanent starting center for the rest of the year with Carter struggling to make a clear impact (even if he is averaging more rebounds and virtually the same points). The Magic, for their part, seem like they always default to Carter to finish games over Bitadze.
The Magic are still avoiding the question. But when Paolo Banchero returns, he likely would slot in at the 4 forcing the Magic to decide who starts at center.
Carter still needs time to establish himself after returning from his long-term plantar fasciitis injury. And that likely means time on the floor without Bitadze to settle into the lineup.
The question is whether this is either the right decision or how long does Carter need to settle into the lineup. Is this what he is and do the Magic need more?
That is probably a question the Magic have to ask themselves the rest of the season. But more immediately they have to ask who gives the the best chance to win. And that is clearly something that is up for some debate.
1. Does a trade become inevitable?
Trade season opens throughout the NBA on Dec. 15. Already everyone is speculating about the next star to get dealt—some overseas bookmakers have the Orlando Magic as favorites to acquire De'Aaron Fox despite no sense the Sacramento Kings are ready to trade him. It is indeed silly season.
The Magic have long spoken about their continuity as one of their strengths. President of basketball operations Jeff Weltman said during the summer that continuity only makes sense when the team is winning.
Indeed, the Magic have continued to improve year over year. And this year seemed like it saw the team improve again into a team that could win homecourt advantage.
Orlando probably does not know what it needs until it sees the holes in its armor in the playoffs, even if they feel obvious.
The question then becomes if the Magic struggle in the next few weeks without both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner and then continue to struggle with Wagner out when Banchero returns, will that necessitate a move to save the season and keep the Magic on track to achieve their goals? Do the Magic look at the situation and decide they need to take immediate action?
No matter what, Orlando does not seem likely to sell its future to try and make sure they make the playoffs this season. There is no Hail Mary for them.
The Magic know their future is tied to Banchero and Wagner and their development. The goal will still be to build a team that permanently enhances those players.
And both Banchero and Wagner should return in time to keep the season afloat and make the playoffs in the end.
But the Magic have clear weaknesses that were apparent in the first quarter of the season and should only become more glaring now that the Magic are down so many key players.
It may not happen at this year's trade deadline, but a trade is on the horizon to keep elevating this team. It is inevitable.
The question is whether these injuries will force their hand sooner.