The Orlando Magic can feel the anticipation and excitement of some good news on the injury front.
It has been a week since Paolo Banchero's injury status was upgraded from OUT with a torn right oblique to OUT for return to competition conditioning. He said then that playing 5-on-5 and taking contact were the last hurdles. Coach Jamahl Mosley said before the team left on its two-game road trip that he was taking "light contact."
Banchero has since been spotted on this road trip returning to a pregame shooting slot and getting work in before games. He may have participated more in the team's shootarounds before the two road games this week.
All signs point toward Banchero's return coming within the next week or in the next few games. The Magic are almost out of the wilderness for one of their major injuries—do not expect Franz Wagner back until sometime in February.
The Magic have figured something out without Banchero. They were 3-2 after the loss to the Chicago Bulls when Banchero was hurt and now sit at 21-15 and fourth in the Eastern Conference as he nears his return.
In many ways, the time without Banchero may be a net positive for the team. The Magic saw Franz Wagner become an All-Star-level player in his stead. The team cemented its defensive identity. And the team saw plenty of deep players step up throughout the course of this absence.
Orlando took a temporary loss without Banchero and likely dropped some games the team would not have otherwise lost. But the Magic also gained a lot of experience for players like Tristan da Silva and found different ways to score and different players to attack.
It should make Banchero's job easier.
The Magic took a bad situation without Banchero and turned it into something positive. And that is a testament to this team.
As Orlando reintegrates Banchero, the team is not going to fall right back into the habits from training camp and the beginning of the season. This is a new team Banchero is joining. And the Magic should not stop doing the things that have worked even with Banchero back in the lineup.
There are a lot of things Banchero will enhance. And this is where the Magic trusting their process will go a long way as Banchero returns.
These are three simple things the Magic must continue to do with Banchero's return imminent.
3. Defend like maniacs
Paolo Banchero is going to enhance many things for the Orlando Magic. Teams will have to double Banchero a lot more and he will warp defenses with his presence and the threat of his scoring. That will create open shots. Banchero will be a gravitational force for this Magic team.
That was something nobody expected to leave with Banchero out.
Banchero is an improved defender, but he was not the linchpin of the defense. And some of those early games without Banchero were not discouraging because of the losses, they were discouraging because the defense looked jarred.
The Magic obviously righted the ship. Since Banchero's injury was announced on Oct. 31, the Magic are third in the league with a 106.3 defensive rating. Orlando plays at a relatively low possession count—something that fits Banchero's more methodical offensive style—and that keeps scores low, putting even more pressure on opponents.
Orlando forces turnovers at a high rate—opponents have an 18.0 percent turnover rate against Orlando, second in the league since Banchero's injury—and the team hounds its opponents. The Magic have struggled at times to score off those turnovers. And that is a space where having a more relaible scorer in Banchero is going to be important.
The Magic's defense has always been there. The Magic had a 107.8 defensive rating with Banchero on the floor in his five games. That is second-worst on the team but would still be third in the league overall!
Orlando's defense is not going anywhere. What the Magic hope happens is Banchero brings an offensive lift that allows the defense not to be so perfect all the time.
2. Keep shooting
The simplest solution to many of the Orlando Magic's problems has been their inability to make shots. They are last in the league in 3-point field goal percentage—even after Friday's 19-for-42 showing against the Toronto Raptors—making only 31.0 percent of their threes. They have made only 30.3 percent since Banchero's injury.
That is kind of the secret sauce though.
In Banchero's five games, the Magic shot a respectable 34.6 percent from three. Orlando took 42.8 3-point attempts per game with Banchero in the lineup, compared to 35.9 per game since Banchero's injury.
Orlando knew it had to take more threes after taking the second-fewest attempts in the league last year. The Magic have not been afraid to let it fly, nor should they be. The question has always been about the quality of those looks.
That is where Banchero's absence has ben felt the most.
For the season, Orlando is taking 20.1 3-point attempts with the closest defender six or more feet away, according to NBA.com. That is the 10th-most in the league. The team makes only 33.3 percent of those shots, so making them remains an issue. The Magic take 13.8 attempts per game with the closest defender 4-6 feet away at 31.2 percent shooting.
While the Magic had Banchero, the team took 25.6 "wide-open" 3-point attempts per game and made 38.3 percent of those shots. That was the second-most attempts in the league at that time. Orlando took 14.4 "open" 3-point attempts per game.
Banchero created 15.2 assist points according to data from Second Spectrum. He passed to 9.4 3-point attempts per game—3.4 per game to Jalen Suggs. The Magic were not always making those shots but the attention and gravity he creates should make for better shot opportunities.
Small samples, but that feels significant. Orlando has not been afraid to shoot. But the quality of those shots decreased with Banchero out. Sticking to their shooting process with Banchero will be a big boost.
1. Cement the new roles
Paolo Banchero is going to enhance a lot of things for the Orlando Magic. Teams will have to double Banchero a lot more and he will warp defenses. That will create open shots. Banchero will be a gravitational force for this Magic team.
But the most valuable thing coming from this period is how other players have had to step into the spotlight.
Franz Wagner became an All-Star-level player in his absence. Jalen Suggs got valuable on-ball reps as the lead scorer and creator, learning and struggling with patience and analyzing the floor in front of him. Tristan da Silva stepped into a bigger role and took advantage of his time on the court.
All of that will not change. The Magic will still lean on those players. They can ease Banchero back in.
Banchero had a heavy burden early in the season. He had a career-high 32.0 percent usage rate. Nearly one of every three possessions ends with a Banchero shot or turnover. Lowering that number a bit—not too much—will be a big boost for him. If the Magic can find a way to get him more spot-up shots and easy shots, that will go a long way.
Banchero will have the ball in his hands a ton. That is not going to change. But Orlando can trust other players to be involved. They can use that to involve Banchero in a number of ways and try to twist the defense.
But there is no putting some of these genies back in the bottle.
The Magic do not want Franz Wagner to return to being a passive supporter. They should put the ball in his hands and let him attack the same way he was without Banchero.
They should trust da Silva with some decision-making. Suggs should get more spot-up opportunities, but he should still do the traditional point guard plays he is making with Banchero out.
They have to fit this new style with Banchero back in the lineup. That should make it all better.
The offense was always a struggle for this team. It has especially been a struggle since Banchero's absence. But the hope is that what these players learned translates to playing around Banchero and that Banchero can benefit from all the team has gained.