The Orlando Magic face some big decisions as the trade deadline draws near and a big summer is ahead. How should they evaluate their assets?
At this time last year, nobody knew what to make of the Orlando Magic.
This was a team with some interesting young players and a coach who was good at establishing a foundation that had not found itself yet. Nikola Vucevic was named an All-Star, the team’s first in seven years, but his team was no closer to breaking through to the playoffs.
The Magic seemed like a team that had big decisions to make about their future. It seemed like this was a team that was finally ready to make a reset.
The trade deadline passed with only a future-looking move for the Magic. The team did not trade away either of their free agents. Instead, they took a risk on a reclamation project in Markelle Fultz.
The team was locked in.
Suddenly things picked up for the team. Jeff Weltman’s — and Steve Clifford’s — instincts about his team was correct. They had a run in them to make the playoffs. And the decision to stand pat paid huge dividends.
The Magic still had those big questions to answer then. With the success in their back pocket, they kept the players key to that success. They were not about to turn back and concede their playoff appearance was a fluke. Nikola Vucevic, Terrence Ross and everyone else came back.
Orlando enters this year’s trade deadline in a much different frame of mind.
The team is ahead of last year’s pace and seems capable of returning not only to a playoff berth but a possible .500 record even with a massive amount of injuries.
But the Magic are still not satisfied with their season. They thought they could take a step forward. Injuries, especially to promising forward Jonathan Isaac, have hampered the team’s ability to reach its potential. But still, the team has shown tons of inconsistency.
Worse still, the team feels like it is reaching its ceiling. And, at some point, the Magic have to transform into the team they ultimately envision for themselves down the road. Everyone is antsy to see the team shift responsibility to their young players.
Everyone is antsy to see this team’s future come to life.
Excuse the Magic if they are not quite ready to go all in. They have a long-term picture in mind. But they also value the playoffs and putting those young players in an environment where winning, even on a small scale, is expected.
That makes the trade deadline a bit trickier for Orlando. The team is certainly looking to move some players and free up space for other players on the roster. But the Magic still want a good return.
And this trade deadline — despite Tuesday night’s four-team trade — does not seem to have a lot of the juice as others. Teams are not angling for cap room for free agency this summer and plenty of teams still have playoff aspirations.
Orlando will have to look at trades carefully at the trade deadline and in the offseason to push past the ceiling their team seems to have. they will have to find a way to get better and clear the way for their young players.
And, yes, they have big free agency decisions to make with Evan Fournier and D.J. Augustin this offseason that will put some major changes on the roster — whether that happens at the deadline or in the offseason. It seems that neither player is exactly in Orlando’s plans moving forward.
The trade deadline is a good chance to take a pause and assess the players the Magic have and how they can use them.
As I have done for the last several years — 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 — I am following Bill Simmons’ lead and writing a trade-value column. Quite simply, I am ranking players by who I would trade for straight up, taking into consideration the player’s output on the floor and salary.
Let’s dive in. . .
Category I — Sure, you can have him
15. Amile Jefferson (2 years, $3.3 million, non-guaranteed in 2021)
Amile Jefferson continually goes to the G-League and dominates. that level. He records double-doubles with ease and is simply a big force on the glass.
At the NBA level? Amile Jefferson really has not even gotten a chance.
Jefferson has played in just 74 minutes across 17 games for the Magic this season, averaging less than a point per game. He mostly is not in the game long enough to make much of an impact. But even with all the injuries, the Magic have at the power forward position, they have opted to go in a different direction.
Jefferson just has not gotten a chance on the floor to show what he could do. Or maybe he has not earned that opportunity.
Either way, it is disappointing that Jefferson cannot make his way onto the floor. Ultimately, his problem is that he is a tweener in the worst ways. He probably has to play center to succeed in the league and he is too small to play center.
At this point, Jefferson has probably hit the end of his road in the NBA.
14. Gary Clark (1 year, $0.8 million)
Orlando Magic
Gary Clark is on the second of his 10-day contracts. That probably means there is not much interest in trading him (if 10-day contracts are even eligible to get traded). His final 10-day will expire soon.
Gary Clark is clearly a fringe NBA player. The Houston Rockets were a bit hesitant to let him go, but they had to in order to clear a roster spot at the time. Clark is a reliable shooter and a good defender. But he is not spectacular enough at either to stay consistently on a NBA roster.
At this point, the Magic are playing him out of necessity because of the injuries. They are still trying to integrate him into the group. It is unclear if the Magic will sign him for the rest of the year.
13. Melvin Frazier Jr. (2 years, $3.1 million, team option for 2021)
Melvin Frazier is very much like Amile Jefferson. This is a young player seeking a chance. He is someone who desperately just needs playing time to see what he can be and see what he can do. The Magic, even after nearly two seasons, really have no clue what he looks like.
Melvin Frazier has really played only a few games — less than a handful! — of meaningful minutes in the NBA. That was really only the game Jonathan Isaac got hurt on Jan. 1. It is his only game playing more than 10 minutes.
Frazier had some vague chance of getting minutes in that period that quickly dried up. it was both that he didn’t take advantage of it and also that he did not get the chance.
In the G-League this year, Frazier has looked very good. He is averaging 16.1 points per game on 49.4 percent shooting. He is still hitting only 30.0 percent from beyond the arc, but Frazier has done a good job attacking the basket off the dribble, setting up a growing mid-range game and running in transition. Frazier is still an elite G-League defender.
Orlando has done well to get him playing time in the G-League. So the team is still clearly invested in him. The question is if and where he gets his chance. And that part is still unclear.
Category II — Let me think about it
12. Al-Farouq Aminu (3 years, $29.2 million, player option for 2022)
It has been an extremely tough first year for Al-Farouq Aminu.
The Orlando Magic wanted to add him for depth at the power forward position. They saw what happened in the playoffs against the Toronto Raptors and knew they needed a bit more size to keep a versatile and big group on the floor at all times. Al-Farouq Aminu was a full-time starter for three of the past four years. The Magic felt they had a high-level reserve.
Aminu’s move back to the bench came with a lot of bumps in the road. He did not fully adjust to his role. And he had a lot of odd statistical occurrences.
Aminu will likely finish the season averaging a career-low 4.3 points per game and 29.1-percent field goal shooting. It has been a career-worst season. He could not hit shots around the basket all of a sudden.
Jeff Weltman’s first big free-agent acquisition has looked exceptionally poor. Even if some of the logic behind it was justified (although still a bit fuzzy to some with the limited resources the Magic have).
Aminu’s season is likely over after he suffered a setback while recovering from a torn meniscus. The Magic are going to have to hope that Aminu can bounce back next year with a little more comfort in his role and perhaps a season virtually spent off his feet.
11. Khem Birch (2 years, $6 million)
If you were to ask me who is the most likely player for the Orlando Magic to trade at this year’s trade deadline, I would point to Khem Birch. What team could not use a solid backup-level center who can defend pick and rolls and protect the rim.
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Khem Birch has had a solid season, all things considered. The Magic are now playing him out of position at the 4 which is both a compliment to what the Magic and coach Steve Clifford think he can do and also exceedingly odd. Birch has done as best he could in the position.
The greatest compliment anyone can give a player is that teammates love to play with him. And that is absolutely true about Birch. His contract is manageable and a contending team in need of a center — hello, Houston Rockets or Golden State Warriors? — could easily take him in and set themselves up for the next few years.
The Magic certainly value Birch. But he is starting to take minutes from an improving Mohamed Bamba. Orlando definitely needs a third center to buffer against injuries. But Birch has not quite been what he was last year. The team does not absolutely need him.
If Orlando wanted to add some backcourt depth. Birch is an easy piece to dangle around to add it.
10. Wesley Iwundu (1 year, $1.6 million, restricted free agent in 2020)
At the beginning of the year, it looked like Wesley Iwundu would get squeezed out of the rotation. The team had loaded up on so many veterans that some players were just not going to find time. Despite a strong run to finish the 2019 season, Wesley Iwundu was the man left on the bench.
He was an insurance plan and the team knew it would need him at some point. As injuries ripped through the roster, Iwundu started getting more playing time. Clifford promised that with more playing time, Iwundu would start to get a rhythm again and make an impact.
That has proven true.
In the last 17 games (since Jan. 1), Iwundu is averaging 7.5 points per game and shooting 43.2 percent from beyond the arc. These are numbers that are in line with his season last year. Iwundu has found his rhythm with consistent playing time and he is a capable spot-up shooter and a smart defender.
Iwundu is still a player in need of playing time to get comfortable and make his impact. And the Magic have not provided that consistently. They have slotted him in as a backup player when really he should be starting to help set an early tone in the game defensively and slide Aaron Gordon to the 4.
This summer is a big one for him. It is not entirely clear what his free agency market will look like. Or even what kind of deal the Magic want to bring him back on if they do. He is one of the big free-agent decisions the Magic quietly have this summer.
Perhaps the team drafted a very similar player in Melvin Frazier will give them some ease in letting Wesley Iwundu walk. But it is not clear.
All the while, Iwundu puts in plenty of work and has proven himself a solid end-of-the-rotation player. He should find a NBA home somewhere.
Category III — Is that what you are offering? OK, I guess
9. D.J. Augustin (1 year, $7.3 million)
When the Orlando Magic signed D.J. Augustin to a four-year deal in the fated summer of 2016, everyone was a bit confused with the decision to commit that much to a backup point guard. Orlando has asked Augustin to wear a lot of different hats.
By the end of this contract, the Magic organization is certainly very thankful for their point guard. He hit that big shot in Game 1 against the Toronto Raptors last year. And Augustin largely keeps the team organized and playing with a proper pace.
Augustin, currently out with bone irritation in his right knee, is missed dearly by this Magic team. He has good chemistry with Nikola Vucevic and is just a solid offensive option. Even if his impact does not show up statistically, he impacts this team’s winning.
Raptors Rapture
Still, Augustin would have been a prime candidate for a trade to add some depth elsewhere, even if the Magic needed his shooting. Orlando is trending toward versatile, athletic players at every position. While Augustin is a solid game manager, he does not fit that profile. Augustin was a holdover from the previous group.
With Augustin hurt at the trade deadline, the Magic are likely going to hold onto him to the end of the season (he is due to be re-evaluated for that injury this week or next week, according to the team’s original timeline). It is not likely the team brings him back on any kind of long-term contract.
8. Michael Carter-Williams (1 year, $1.6 million)
It is really incredible how Michael Carter-Williams has saved his career. The Magic brought him back on a 10-day contract last season after Isaiah Briscoe‘s injury and Michael Carter-Williams immediately embedded and endeared himself to the team. His impact seemed to be a whole lot more than the 12 games he actually played.
His defensive energy has been impossible for coach Steve Clifford to leave off the floor. That is why the Magic tried some of those odd lineups with Carter-Williams at shooting guard or playing off the ball. The team just needs him to push the pace and cause havoc.
Carter-Williams is absolutely a player the Magic should look to re-sign using some of the space freed up in Augustin’s likely departure. So many teams could use a player that can mix things up and give their team an edge like Carter-Williams.
It is really amazing how much Carter-Williams has embedded himself in this team’s culture.
He is not perfect, of course. Sometimes he goes off that edge and takes unnecessary risks. He is not always the best at getting the team organized and into their sets. He probably needs to be in lineups with more shooting — something the Magic just cannot give him with their bench groups.
But Carter-Williams has Clifford’s complete trust and that means something. Especially since he is still so productive.
Category IV — If you keep twisting my arm, I might say maybe
7. Terrence Ross (4 years, $50 million)
The Orlando Magic’s ace up their sleeve is Terrence Ross. Whenever the team feels like it needs an offensive jolt, they put Ross in the game, run him off a few screens and watch the momentum and tenor of a game change. More than any other player on the roster, teams have to specifically game plan for Ross.
As expected after a stellar 2019 season, Ross has regressed to the mean some. He is shooting just 32.7 percent from beyond the arc in averaging 13.2 points per game. That might roughly be just two fewer points per game than last year, but it is his lack of efficiency that is hurting the team.
One of the issues the Magic have faced this year is a lack of ingenuity and creativity offensively. Some of that is how the team runs plays specifically for Ross and the whole offense shifts to set him up. Some of it is that Ross has a perpetual green light to take even contested shots.
This is a down year for Ross, the worst 3-point shooting season of his career. He will learn to adjust to the defenses teams have thrown at him. And the Magic certainly can try to build a rotation that will get him better looks and more space to operate.
Ross is in the first year of his four-year deal. His salary takes a bump up next year to $13.5 million before decreasing in the final two years. It is simply too early to find much of a trade market for Ross.
Orlando needs his scoring off the bench way too much to consider trying to move off his deal quite yet.
6. Mohamed Bamba (4 years, $29.3 million, team option for 2022)
The first two years of Mohamed Bamba’s career have been frustrating.
He was a project when the team acquired him, to begin with, and they knew it would take time for him to gain the strength to play major minutes in the NBA.
King James Gospel
Injury cut his rookie year short and deprived him of that valuable playoff experience. It also did not help that Orlando’s best player played his position. There were already too few minutes for him to play and get on the floor.
An injury in the summer slowed things down too. The Magic have seemingly gone out of their way to make sure Khem Birch plays. And this further depresses Bamba’s playing time.
But Bamba is starting to figure things out on the floor. The Magic were always patient with his development. They were always going to be patient with him.
So teams looking to pluck a young player from a playoff team are probably going to be disappointed. The Magic are not anywhere near ready to give up on him. And Bamba is starting to reward them for it. He is showing a lot more patience and understanding where to be.
Orlando still has very high hopes for Bamba. The hope is still that he can add strength and make a push to start at some point next season. That might be a time to cash in on some of the other chips they have on the table.
5. Nikola Vucevic (4 years, $100 million)
If you want a sure way to start a fight online, mention anything to do with Nikola Vucevic.
Vucevic has become the most polarizing player probably in Orlando Magic history. Someone who is a connection to a past everyone wants to forget but a player vital to the team’s survival in the present.
Vucevic is in the same spot he has always been. He is a walking double-double who can put up solid numbers and provide stability to the team. The Magic are better with him on the floor — -3.6 net rating with him off the floor, trailing only D.J. Augustin among regular rotation players.
Pippen Ain't Easy
But he is also a limiting player. He can lose his timing defensively and become a sieve at the rim. And this year, Vucevic has gone through a bizarre shooting slump. The team has struggled to make up for the loss of his reliable shooting.
This is not Vucevic’s All-Star year. Like so many players, he has had some major regression this year. And the Magic have to find a way to get Vucevic going if they want to find any success.
But like all the previous years, the Magic seem to be biding their time. They are waiting for the time when they can move on from Vucevic and bring in the athletic, defensive center that is at the corer of their identity. Yes, the Magic are waiting on Mohamed Bamba to take over the role.
He is not quite there yet. And so Vucevic is still necessary. At least for the time being.
Then again, Vucevic takes up a fair amount of offensive oxygen. He is a big man without a ton of athleticism so he tends to slow the half-court offense down, especially when the team goes out of its way to set him up in the post.
There is a feeling — and a correct one — the Magic need to find a way to move their offense away from centering around him. But who steps up to that plate? Is there anyone else who can contribute all the things he does?
That answer is hard to find. So while Vucevic may not be important for the team’s future (his front-loaded contract will help the team move him down the road), he remains vital to the team’s present.
4. Evan Fournier (2 years, $34.3 million, player option for 2021)
The biggest conundrum the Orlando Magic have to make at the trade deadline regards Evan Fournier.
Fournier is having a career season, averaging 18.6 points per game with a career-best 55.0 percent effective field goal percentage (his rookie year was technically better, but he played significantly fewer minutes). When the Magic were without Nikola Vucevic in November, it was Evan Fournier who kept the team alive.
But the Magic have big questions about their roster. This team is a clear Playoff team in this Eastern Conference but does not seem to be much more than the 7-seed. Magic fans — and surely the front office — are feeling the pressure to push this team to do more.
And that inevitably means change. Especially after the Magic spent a summer keeping everything virtually the same.
How can the team make changes to push this team forward and shift more responsibility to the young players they want to grow if they keep bringing back the same players?
Daily Knicks
Orlando could get away with bringing back Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross last year to build off the playoff year. Both of those contracts are structured to move.
It would be more difficult to justify bringing Fournier back for another long-term deal. The Magic have to start making decisions. And bigger contracts are on the horizon for Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz in the summer of 2021.
The Magic cannot pay everyone. Certainly not for a team that tops off as a 7-seed.
Fournier, personally, should be looking to get one more big contract. This is a weak free-agent class and Fournier would enter it as one of the best players available on the market (especially if the Magic are not super interested in bringing him back.
Fournier should have some value on the trade market. He is a productive player who can spread the floor and work as a secondary playmaker. As the third option on a team, he could help a playoff team take the next step.
The question is just what the Magic want in return. They likely want a player they can plug into the starting lineup on a reasonable deal. The Magic still want to compete this year.
That likely complicates their pursuit of a trade.
3. Aaron Gordon (3 years, $54.4 million)
It is still hard to believe that Aaron Gordon is just 24 years old. It feels like you always have to remind yourself of this as you analyze him. There is still so much more potential for him to grow. Giving up on him now could be folly.
Orlando Magic fans certainly fear a repeat of trading Victor Oladipo and Tobias Harris too soon. They have seen enough of their former young players go off elsewhere and become at least near star players or major contributors.
Giving up on Gordon this soon would be a mistake. There is no doubt about that.
But there is also still a question about his fit with Jonathan Isaac (foreshadowing to the rest of this list) and figuring out how to get the most of him within a roster that still feels fairly limited.
And if the Magic want to package a player to get a disgruntled star and complete this roster, Gordon is probably the contract the team has to trade to do that. And with his front-loaded contract, they probably have to do that within the next calendar year.
Nugg Love
Complicating matters further is Gordon’s frustrating 2020 season.
This was a year a lot of pundits believed Gordon would take a leap forward. Instead, his offense has cratered to 13.6 points per game on a career-worst 46.9-percent effective field goal percentage. His 3-point shooting has flirted around the 30-percent mark all year.
Defensively, Gordon has done a good job with ball containment. He remains the team’s best individual defender on a team that hangs its hat on defense. But his defense has even taken a small step back.
Gordon’s chances to star still come from his ability to make and create shots for himself. And that development has stalled.
This has cratered the return the Magic surely hoped for Gordon. They probably should still hold out to get a start-caliber player in return for him because Gordon still has that potential. But the team also needs to start shaping the team into the vision the front office has.
Gordon is young enough the Magic can and probably should wait things out. And that makes him still very valuable to the team.
2. Markelle Fultz (2 years, $22.0 million, RFA in 2021)
Last year, the Orlando Magic took a flyer on Markelle Fultz. He was a reclamation project, someone who just found the wrong fit and the wrong situation to go with bad injury luck in his original home. The fact he was the top overall pick only added to the pressure and frustration in his former home.
Fultz needed a fresh start. And the Magic did not need him immediately. They still viewed themselves as fairly early in their development stage (that perspective makes their playoff appearance even more encouraging) and they could wait on his injury.
The hope for this first season was to ensure he was healthy and could get through the full season — his first full season. That almost did not happen as Fultz was not cleared for basketball activities until September. The Magic were still largely managing him carefully.
But very quickly, it was clear Fultz was a lot more than everyone expected. There was a reason he was the No. 1 pick and he was reminding everyone of that with every dribble and every attack.
The Sixer Sense
Within five games in the regular season, it was clear he needed to start. And so he has started since early November virtually.
Since then, he has amazed everyone with how quickly he has taken back to the game. He has shown why he was the No. 1 pick and that he has plenty of talent to tap into. If he were a rookie, he may not be the Rookie of the Year, but he would be among the best in this class.
Magic fans are itching for the team to give him more responsibility. Orlando wants to see more of Fultz.
And quickly, Fultz has now established himself as a core player on this team. He has never had a healthy summer and so it will be interesting to see how he adds skills to his game. The future is extremely promising.
Orlando put some faith in Fultz by picking up his team option for next year. The team can look forward to his restricted free agency summer after the 2021 season. But Fultz is clearly a part of the team’s future for now. A very key part actually. Orlando has to feel good about who they have manning the point for now.
1. Jonathan Isaac (2 years, $13.2 million, RFA in 2021)
There has not been a wing player to lead the league in blocks since 2004. That was Andrei Kirilenko, a lanky dynamic and versatile forward who flew to the rim to block shots and used his length to deflect passes and create steals.
The league has not really had anyone play like that at a high level in a long time from that position.
In stepped Jonathan Isaac.
Nobody knew where Isaac’s game would grow. He was a solid defender, but not a defensive playmaker last year as he made it through his first full season in the league. The hope was he would expand offensively. And he has, but that is still a work in progress.
What changed this year is that Isaac became a much more dynamic defensive presence. He locked down his individual matchup consistently, especially that game against the Dallas Mavericks when he was credited with hold Kristaps Porzingis to 2-for-9 shooting.
That was also the game that showed what Isaac could do. He came one steal shy of the vaunted 5×5 club. He was leading the league in “stocks” — steals and blocks combined — and was just a dominant presence defensively.
Orlando had a defensive backstop at last. And Isaac cleaned up a lot of mistakes and showed plenty of growth.
His injury on Jan. 1 was fortunately not as bad as it could have been. But it derailed one of the best seasons going around the league — a potential Most Improved Player and Defensive Player of the Year season. He was certainly on track to make an All-Defensive Team.
Isaac seems to be recovering well. He likely will not play the rest of the season (he is due to be evaluated again at the end of the month and reportedly will be off crutches soon).
But the Magic discovered a keeper in Isaac. They found someone they feel comfortable they can build their defense around. Someone they believe can continue to grow.
What will he grow into, however? That is the part nobody really knows yet. And when he is healthy and able to hit the court again, the Magic certainly want to see him expand his offensive game.
Either way, Isaac is the most important player on the Magic. He is the one opposing teams would want most from the Magic and the one the Magic will be most sure not to give up.