With the NBA All-Star Weekend completed. It is full steam ahead to the NBA trade deadline Thursday. In our yearly column, OMD breaks down the Magic’s assets.
The Orlando Magic did not wait for the trade deadline to begin the seismic shifts sure to occur with this franchise following this season.
The team’s disappointing 21-36 record was going to necessitate change. And it started with cutting their losses on Serge Ibaka. The Magic traded Serge Ibaka to the Toronto Raptors for Terrence Ross and a first round pick (likely the LA Clippers’ pick in the late 20s).
Considering all the ambition placed into this season, that feels like the first domino to fall. The Magic said they were going to be active entering the trade deadline. There is no reason that will stop just because the Ibaka deal is done. The Magic are still 6.5 games out of the final Playoff spot and have no feel for their new team or the direction it will head.
Surely the Magic are resetting their rebuild some right now. They are trying to restock some assets and find players that complement each other better. The Magic are assessing their roster and determining what should stay and what no longer works.
Clearly after four years out of the Playoffs — and likely a fifth after all these changes — the Magic are rethinking their future and the direction they must go. That likely top-five draft pick also looks pretty good as a basis for building.
The future for this team is up in the air and Rob Hennigan — or whoever else — is going to have some work to do to remake the roster and get the team back on the right track.
Fortunately, the Magic still do have some assets and a few players other teams would want. Maybe not enough to get a star or really transform the team, but the Magic are not locked into salary cap hell.
They could use some internal improvement and a couple of shrewd moves — the few tweaks the team needs to get back into the Playoff picture — but it does not feel the Magic are completely lost. They still need help and have to piece some things together, but things are not completely lost.
Or at least that is what the Magic might have to tell themselves for now.
Orlando will remain active heading into the trade deadline. It does not appear the Magic are close to being done and they know that. The next deal could still be right around the corner.
As we have done at Orlando Magic Daily, it is time to take some stock of what the Magic have with our annual trade value column.
Based off the popular Bill Simmons column, here is our ranking of the Magic’s trade assets. The idea here is, based on the player’s skill, production, upside and contract, who is the most valuable player on the team?
Category I — Sure you can have them
14. Damjan Rudez, $2.7 million/2 years, Qualifying Offer 2018
Damjan Rudez was a training camp invitee and it is hard to see him doing much more than that for the rest of whatever is left in his NBA career.
Rudez does have a NBA skill. He is a good shooter. Coach Frank Vogel’s joke that Rudez can stay in so long as he makes shots is at least partially true. Rudez does not provide much more than his shooting to a team. His defense is suspect at best and he does not do much else offensively.
Rudez is a prime candidate, despite the rest of his contract becoming guaranteed in January, to get cut so the Magic could free a roster spot for a D-League call up at some point this season. At this point, it is hard even to say he is a full-time NBA player.
That good will Rudez built up with Vogel from his time in Indiana only lasts so long. Rudez can only provide so much to the team.
13. C.J. Wilcox, $1.2 million/1 years
The Magic acquired C.J. Wilcox hoping he would add some additional shooting to the team. Wilcox was begging for an opportunity to play. There was some hope he could get that opportunity in Orlando.
Instead, injuries have slowed Wilcox down. The Magic acquired some other shooters and pushed Wilcox to the bench once again. Orlando did not even pick up his team option, turning him into an unrestricted free agent.
Orlando Magic
At this point, Wilcox is hanging on in the NBA. He needs to focus on getting healthy and playing well in Summer League (no matter who that is for).
His potential and salary could make him attractive for a move. But he has done too little in the NBA and with the Magic this season to have any real value right now.
12. Stephen Zimmerman, $5.7 million/4 years, Non-Guaranteed 2017-18, Qualifying Offer 2019
The Magic drafted Stephen Zimmerman because of his upside and talent. Until a knee injury sidelined him at UNLV, there were some projections that had him going in the Lottery. He has first-round talent at the very least.
The Magic decided they were going to take things slow with him. The plan was for Zimmerman to spend a lot of time in the D-League. And so far he has appeared in more games with the Erie BayHawks (21 games) than with the Magic (nine games). That is fine and the Magic can still afford to wait a bit on Zimmerman and see what he becomes.
Other teams might be too. Because the former McDonald’s All-American has something worth looking at. He has an odd versatility for someone his size. Although he still has a long way to go.
Category II — Buyer’s Remorse
11. Mario Hezonja, $20 million/4 years, Team Option 2019, Qualifying Offer 2020
Mario Hezonja is the great hope for the Magic. Much of the talk about Hezonja is what everyone hopes Hezonja should be rather than what he is. The fifth overall pick carries with it a lot of weight. And it is tough to erase those expectations.
Hezonja’s season has been a rough one. The Magic had big expectations for him. Rob Hennigan has even publicly expressed disappointment in Hezonja’s season. There is still hope for his development.
Getting Hezonja on the court will be the first part to figure out what he can do and to try to increase his value. Before his recent addition to the rotation, it was questionable whether the Magic would even pick up his team option for the 2019 season.
Right now the Magic can only sell Hezonja on what he was supposed to be. What he is right now is inconsistent at best, raw in reality and a bust at worst. Hezonja is a nice throw in at the moment.
10. Bismack Biyombo, $68 million/4 years, Player Option 2020
The Magic were at Bismack Biyombo’s door at midnight on July 1 with Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton in tow. Even with Serge Ibaka on the roster already, Biyombo was one of the Magic’s key targets.
They figured a second rim protector would bolster their defense and turn them into a dominant defensive team. It gave them insurance when that inevitable Nikola Vucevic trade occurred. That never happened and the Magic went to the season with both centers competing for playing time.
What has been made worse is Biyombo has underperformed. The Magic did not expect him to contribute much on the offensive end, but his defense has been suspect. His rim protection is down from last year. Even his rebound rate is near career lows.
Other defensive metrics suggest he is still making an impact. But he did not pair well with Ibaka at all. The final defensive rating for lineups with Biyombo and Ibaka together was 112.2. That is not at all what the Magic had in mind.
And right now, the Magic are kind of stuck with Biyombo.
9. D.J. Augustin, $29 million/4 years
The Magic’s first big signing of the offseason was backup point guard D.J. Augustin. The Magic hoped to add some shooting off the bench and make him a solid backup point guard behind Elfrid Payton.
By this point in his career, everyone knows who Augustin is. He can score and shoot in a hurry. But his defense is suspect. If a team has to rely on him as a starter, then that team is probably going to be in trouble.
Augustin has started 20 of the 57 games he has played this season. Payton has struggled to stay in the starting lineup. And that has exposed Augustin’s weaknesses even more.
The Magic have to find a way to get Augustin to be the backup point guard again. Because it does not feel likely they will be able to move him unless he is needed for a larger salary.
Augustin can still be productive. And there will be some interest. But the Magic would have to take back long-term salary to trade him. Sometimes a deal involving a player like Augustin feels too good to be true.
Category III — The Expirings
8. Jeff Green, $15 million/1 year
The annual exercise of trading Jeff Green at the trade deadline is underway once again. It was what the Magic essentially signed him to do. He has been traded at or near the deadline in each of the past two seasons!
Green came in with little expectations. The Magic had cap room to burn, needed a veteran to fill that spot and felt ready to overpay. If he worked out, they could flip him for younger assets to help them make their Playoff push.
His one-year, $15-million contract is not onerous. If a team is looking to spin off salary and create cap room, the Magic might be happy to do so if it nets them a valuable piece.
No one should be expecting to bring on Green and get more than what he has shown in Orlando or anywhere else in his career. Green is averaging 9.4 points per game and shooting a 43.7 percent effective field goal percentage.
Whatever team wants Green will have to consign him to the bench and a reserve role. That is not what the Magic have afforded to do. They relied on him too much. And letting him walk is not the worst thing in the world if there ends up being no market.
7. C.J. Watson, $10 million/2 years, Non-guaranteed 2018
C.J. Watson’s time in Orlando has been rough at times. Injuries kept him from doing much of anything last year. This year, he started the year in a shooting slump. It was hard to find much value for him.
But Frank Vogel kept turning to him, citing his good defensive positioning and the things he does that make a team work even without scoring. It infuriated Magic fans since he was playing ahead of Mario Hezonja and it felt like Watson was doing very little.
The last few weeks have changed some of that narrative.
Watson’s shooting has come back around and his defense has remained solid. As solid as anyone on the team, at least. Watson is the kind of veteran that just has his coach’s trust and plays his role, even if it does not mean a large statistical impact.
Watson also has the benefit of a very friendly contract. He is virtually an expiring contract with just $1 million of his $5 million salary next year guaranteed. If a team needs a veteran point guard off the bench for a Playoff push, the Magic surely would have a taker to flip him for something.
6. Jodie Meeks, $6.5 million/1 years
The Magic might actually want to consider re-signing Jodie Meeks depending on how Terrence Ross, Mario Hezonja or the Draft works out. Meeks has played well for the Magic in the short time he was healthy, helping ignite the team’s offensive capabilities.
It is amazing what a little shooting can do.
The foot injury that kept Meeks out the first 20 games of the season and now the thumb injury for Meeks has put a damper on his season. But in between those two, Meeks was a shooting marvel for a team that lacked a lot of outside shooting.
The Magic were thankful to have Meeks when he was out there. His job was simply to shoot and teams had to give him that respect because he was making shots at a pretty good clip.
If Meeks is close to returning, the Magic could definitely get something of value for him. He may still be a nice throw in on top of that. But the injury history this year does him no favors overall.
5. Elfrid Payton, $10.5 million/3 years, Qualifying Offer 2019
Elfrid Payton may still be the most polarizing player for the Magic. He may be the most polarizing player for the Magic’s observers in trying to assess value. His play might be the most polarizing on the entire team.
At this point last year, Payton was still fifth on this trade value column. He is still there, but his stock is considerably lower.
Last year it was about what kind of starter Payton could be. He was a great driver and leader put in perhaps the wrong offense and still trying to figure things out. Payton still had a ton of potential.
More than that, the Magic reportedly reached an ultimatum with Scott Skiles over Payton and stuck with Payton. That depends on whatever rumor or report you want to believe. The Magic still had a lot of belief in Payton and believed with improved shooting, he could be a starting point guard still.
His stock is considerably lower these days.
Payton is in and out of the starting lineup now. And his status as a starter in this league is in question as he enters his extension summer. It is safe to say with the Magic exploring other point guard options in a trade and a point guard-heavy draft upcoming that Payton’s value is near a low.
When Payton is at his best, the Magic are clearly a better team. He can take them to another level and have them playing above their talent level. That just shows how important consistent point guard play is in the league.
Right now, Payton has not been able to provide that. It feels like the Magic either need to move him to be a full-time backup, or cash him in while he still carries some value.
4. Evan Fournier, $85 million/5 years, Player Option 2020
The Magic had a big decision to make this offseason. Maybe it was a false one, but the team sensed it could not keep both Victor Oladipo and Evan Fournier together. Neither player may have been perfect, but it was financially infeasible to keep both.
Orlando chose Fournier, shipping Oladipo off in the Ibaka deal. With Olympic pressure growing and Fournier trying to get his contract issue resolved before Rio, he signed for a below-market value.
Fournier arguably still produces to his contract. He has averaged a career-high 16.8 points per game. His PER is still a slightly below-average 13.6, among the best in his career but down from last year considering his increase in role.
Fournier is really the Magic’s only consistent scoring option on the perimeter. And that is probably a role Fournier never should have been put in to begin with. Oladipo was better suited to that primary role.
Still, Fournier should retain some value. He is a solid shooter and smart attacking rotations. He is not bad playing the pick and roll but not someone who will break down defenders off the dribble. He will struggle against the best defenders. He needs someone to relieve that offensive pressure from him.
This is all to say, the Magic have no reason to shop Fournier actively right now. Not that they could get much for him. He is in the first year of a five-year deal. Put in the right role, Fournier would certainly flourish. And so the Magic have to find a way to put him in a role he can succeed better.
Because he probably is not going anywhere for a while.
3. Terrence Ross, $31 million/3 years
The Magic made their first big move of this trade deadline in acquiring Terrence Ross. And he should remain quite the interesting prospect moving forward. Guys on their second contracts are especially valuable now with the cap spike.
The Magic are going to hold onto Ross for now (they could not trade him in combination with other players for another three months) but he could become very valuable if he thrives in the bigger role the Magic appear to have planned for him.
Leaving Toronto now, Ross has a chance to expand and increase his value. He is still young enough to take another step. It has been some time since he started full time. And he was still always behind DeMar DeRozan on the depth chart.
It is still unclear exactly what role Ross will play and what he can provide. Certainly, the Magic could use his shooting. And, if the team can get its defense in order, his athleticism in transition will be a big boost for the Magic too.
All of this is speculation. But there are high expectations for what Ross can do and bring to the team. Things will remain optimistic . . . until they are not.
2. Nikola Vucevic, $36.8 million/3 years
It felt like Nikola Vucevic was ripe to be traded and the Magic would have to deal him to take their next step for several years. Everyone knows about his production and his team-friendly contract. That is just something the Magic have to shop if they want to improve their roster.
For the first time, though, it really feels like the Magic could get worse by moving Vucevic.
His scoring is down this year, thanks to an addition of new weapons and a use of more big-heavy lineups with Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo. But his defense has never been better. A player whom everyone assumed was not a good defensive player has proven himself at least adequate.
Vogel is a master at teaching verticality and Vucevic has thrived because of it. Vucevic’s positioning and anticipation is a lot better. And he does a better job corraling players. He still has work to do on the pick and roll and he could probably still use rim protection behind him — or at least a really tight scheme — but Vucevic’s defensive improvement has been one of the nicer stories this season.
Especially after a season where so many games have looked lifeless, having someone who feels embedded into the community and the franchise is a plus. Vucevic has endeared himself again to fans after so many wrote him off as gone and unnecessary.
Unfortunately now, Vucevic is the Magic’s most tradable asset. To get a better return, they are likely going to have to trade Vucevic to make salaries match. He is that attractive with his production and potential.
1. Aaron Gordon, $17.1 million/3 years, Qualifying Offer 2019
Aaron Gordon is still the great hope for the Magic to develop an All Star. At the very least, he is the player with the most potential, marketability and the like. Gordon is everything the Magic need to develop and grow.
The experiment the Magic ran this season playing Gordon at the 3 was an interesting one. One that should have been done before the team started trying to win rather than this year. Everyone seems frustrated with where Gordon is playing outside of the team. And even the Magic now seem ready to relent and play Gordon at the 4.
Gordon’s offense is still a long way away. He is far from consistent off the dribble or on the perimeter. It is an odd fit.
But he has his moments. His 30-point games against the LA Clippers were a surprising outburst. And Gordon appears to have his moments when he puts everything together. This is what everyone holds on to when it comes to Gordon.
Where Gordon has established himself is on the defensive end. He is a potential all-Defensive Team player. That is a big part of his ceiling and why he probably remains a starter in this league. Especially if he continues some improvement offensively and with his shot. There is no reason to think he will not.
Gordon is still a lot of potential. He is still a lot of what he can be. And that is what anyone would bank on.
Next: Orlando Magic working to rebuild young assets
And that is what the Magic are banking on. It is why he is the most important player to the team right now.