The Orlando Magic have already made a deal ahead of the trade deadline. Who is to say whether they are done or what comes next? We assess the team’s assets.
Well, we have finally made it to this point.
The All-Star Break is over and the rest of the season stands before us. The trade deadline Thursday will offer the last chance to make any major improvements to the Orlando Magic’s roster and get that last little push toward the Playoffs, potentially.
Or to free up cap space for the summer and be players during the summer of 2016 to improve the team.
The Magic struck first at the trade deadline in trading Tobias Harris to the Detroit Pistons for Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova, in a move that should shore up the Magic’s bench the rest of this season and clear some cap space for the summer.
They then reportedly agreed to deal Channing Frye to the Los Angeles Clippers for more cap space.
There is no secret around the league the Magic were and are continuing to search for a deal. Looking at the roster as constructed before the Tobias Harris trade, it is somewhere between the 19-13 stellar team that raced out of the gates and took the league by storm and the 2-12 team that had everyone scratching their head.
Recency bias has us remembering the disaster of January more than the successes of December right now. But it is still extremely disconcerting.
So too are the continued losses late in games and the inability to close teams out. This Magic team is missing something and at some point in the very near future will have to resolve these issues to take a step forward.
That is what has brought urgency to the trade deadline this time around. The Magic know they need something new to take a step forward.
It has the team reportedly aggressively pursuing a veteran to give some leadership and guidance to the roster on the floor and perhaps thinking a little bit bigger. And obviously making a pretty major move.
The Magic are in a real interesting spot in their development. They are clearly ready to take the step up to the Playoffs, but still have some work to do to get the roster to that level.
In order to get something though, the Magic have to give up something. And even that part of the equation is difficult.
The Magic have invested a lot of time and even some money in some key players on the team. There are big decisions to come in the very near future and several young players still waiting for development. No one on this team has reached their ceiling (most likely) and no one on the team is quite at an All-Star level.
The Magic have a lot of young players that should attract some interest. But who are the Magic willing to give up to get something major? Who are the Magic ready to move on from? Who are the Magic hoping to keep and continue developing? How do they balance that with winning.
There are a lot of factors involved as the trade deadline approaches.
Cost-benefit analyses are definitely in play. Contract length, value and free agency are in play as is trying to figure out what you could get for a player. All we can do right now is assess what the Magic have on their roster.
Like last year, we are going to revive the old Bill Simmons trade value column and put the magnifying glass on the Magic. Yes, I started writing this before the Harris trade and so Harris’ ranking and a brief analysis is included. Trading Jennings and Ilyasova at this point would have to come immediately and I do not have enough information to properly rank them in comparison to the Magic’s other assets.
In making this ranking we are considering several factors: current play, potential, contract length and marketability. Essentially the rankings are saying you would trade the player straight up for any player above them — i.e. you are not trading No. 1 for anyone, only would trade No. 2 for No. 1 and so on. That was the basic idea of Simmons’ original column.
This is not to suggest a deal or who the Magic would or would not give up. Just how to rank and assess the team’s current assets.
Next: Category I -- Sure you can have him
Category I — Sure you can have him
14. Devyn Marble, $3.1 million/ 3 years, Non-guaranteed in 2017, RFA in 2018
Devyn Marble is basically an afterthought on this team. He has moved up and down between the main roster in Orlando and the D-League roster with the Erie Bayhawks. He has played in only eight games this year after playing in 16 last year.
With his contract non-guaranteed next year, you have to ask whether Marble has a long-term future with the Magic. Or in the NBA at all. Which is unfortunate because he has shown himself capable in the D-League — 14.8 points per game in 14 games for the Bayhawks this year.
Essentially Marble is a throw-in player in any deal at this point. As much defensive potential as he has, he does not seem to have developed the offense to match to stick in the league. And it seems unlikely the Magic will keep him another year on the main roster.
13. Shabazz Napier, $8.5 million/4 years, Team Option in 2018, RFA in 2019
Shabazz Napier is trading on his name from Connecticut. Unfortunately, that does not carry a ton of weight. Napier’s heroics and shotmaking have not translated and the first round pick the Magic acquired for virtually nothing probably could not be traded away fro that much either.
The Magic picked up his team option for the 2017 season, so he has at least one more year in the NBA to prove himself.
His already low shooting numbers have decreased this season and Napier just has not found his fit in the league with either the Miami Heat or the Orlando Magic. It is just not clear what kind of player he is supposed to or going to be.
And nobody wants that, even if he is in just his second year.
Next: Category II -- We're not even sure what we have
Category II — We’re not even sure what we have
12. Dewayne Dedmon, $2.2 million/2 years, RFA in 2017
Dewayne Dedmon had so much promise before him entering this season. He finished last year as a starter alongside Nikola Vucevic and had the rim protection the Orlando Magic needed. A little more development and refinement and he would be a serviceable backup that might push for more minutes because of his defensive acumen.
This year though, Dedmon is a complete afterthought. He never got to the starting line.
He is averaging 10.4 minutes per game in 33 appearances, posting 2.3 blocks per 36 minutes and 6.3 minutes per 36 minutes. He has never had a year where he did not average less than six fouls per 36 minutes. Essentially, he cannot stay on the floor.
Dedmon had to learn how to control his body and play with verticality and not wildly swing his arms. Let alone get some offense. He did not make any progress in that regard and, well, that is where he is at right now.
11. C.J. Watson, $15 million/3 years, Non-guaranteed in 2018
The Orlando Magic have barely had time to figure out exactly what C.J. Watson is. He has been out of the lineup since November. He played in only eight games before his mysterious injury knocked him out of the lineup.
He is supposedly close to coming back — Scott Skiles said there was a possibility he would play in the Magic’s first-half finale against the San Antonio Spurs.
At this point, other teams know exactly who Watson is as a player. He is a solid backup point guard with decent enough shooting and on a relatively reasonable deal. He has value.
He just has not played. So at this point who knows what he really is moving forward. The Magic certainly do not and they need a backup point guard like him for the moment.
Next: Category III -- Hmm... I am listening
Category III — Hmm… I am listening
10. Andrew Nicholson, $5.8 million/2 years, RFA in 2017
Andrew Nicholson is really an interesting case of a player. Really he could go in the previous category or in this category. As an expiring contract, he has some value, particularly for his restricted free agent rights. At the same time, has he done enough to stay in the league?
Some team is going to feel like Nicholson has a place in the league, even if it is at the end of the bench. He still has some value in this league. There are few players that have the post moves Nicholson has and his 3-point shot has improved. It just does not seem enough.
At this point, it is unclear exactly how the Magic value him. Or how anyone values him. He has a future somewhere in the league for at least the short term, but with whom and in what role is still a complete mystery.
The Magic do not even know how to use Nicholson and so you just have to scratch your head.
9. Jason Smith, $4.3 million/1 years
Jason Smith has been one of the nicest surprises for the Orlando Magic this year. He has established himself as one of the best mid-range shooters in the league (whether that is a desirable skill is another debate) and just fits in. Teams leave him open and he makes shots. That is a good skill to have.
He also has been a better than expected defensive player and a decent rim protector. The Magic really should not be upset at all with their decision to let Kyle O’Quinn walk and go with the cheaper option in Jason Smith.
Smith has returned that value in his one year contract and has stated he would like to stay in Orlando. He should have some type of market this offseason. The Magic have to look into what his value is. But at the same time, Smith is always going to be a bench player.
He is far more valuable to them coming off the bench even if the Magic miss the playoffs. His small salary makes him difficult to move anyway.
8. Channing Frye, $23.4 million/3 years
The most controversial and talked about player on the Magic who probably does not even play very much — Frye has averaged 12.4 minutes per game in eight appearances since leaving the starting lineup.
Frye does a lot of things well and helps the team spread the floor. He is shooting 39.7 percent from beyond the arc last year, even better than last year’s strong shooting year. But even then it feels like he is a disappointment.
Frye has become the team’s scapegoat. The easy guy to blame for all the team’s defensive shortcomings. It is easy to look at his individual stat line and say that he is not producing anything. Especially when you consider he is the Magic’s first big free agent acquisition of the Rob Hennigan era (at least the first big contract offered).
But the numbers also show the Magic largely play better with Frye on the floor, especially offensively. He does help the team.
And teams around the league know this. Which is why he should be ranked highly in this setting. Teams value that they know what they will get from him night to night and value his shooting. Add in his contract is front loaded and Frye still has interest and value around the league.
To make salaries match for one of the Magic players on their rookie contract, Frye is almost giving up too much unless the return is really good.
Of course, the Magic also have reportedly agreed to a deal to send Channing Frye to the Los Angeles Clippers for Lance Stephenson and C.J. Wilcox in another move to clear salary.
Next: Category IV -- If we have to
Category IV — If we have to
7. Tobias Harris, $64 million/4 years
Tobias Harris has been something of a lightning rod for the Orlando Magic and Magic fans through the early part of the season.
He got the big extension and got a lot of responsibility thrust upon him — both on the court as a scorer and off the court as a leader. And there has been some disappointment.
His shooting is down this year to 31.1 percent from beyond the arc and 50.7 percent effective field goal percentage down from 36.4 percent from three and 51.2 percent effective field goal percentage. It has been a down year for his shooting, even if his efficiency with his shot has stayed virtually the same.
His scoring numbers are down. And that contract is awfully large.
The Magic traded Tobias Harris to the Detroit Pistons for Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova on Tuesday.
Clearly the Magic knew they had to free up the ball and get some more playing time to players like Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon. Harris had underperformed and so the Magic moved him for some expiring deals, hoping to free up the cap space they just used on Harris.
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6. Evan Fournier, $5.6 million/2 years, RFA in 2017
Before the Tobias Harris deal, if there was a candidate to lead the way to get traded, it was likely Evan Fournier.
Fournier was set to become a restricted free agent and has a lot of promise. Whether it would be for a team looking for a sharpshooting rental or a team that views Fournier as part of their long-term future and they want the security of matching his contract, Fournier has some real value.
He has been one of the big surprises of the season. His run of play earlier in the season when he was scoring seemingly at will was magnificent for the team. He had a skill that no one else on the team seemed to have in his shooting.
Fournier has had his ups and downs and remains a bit inconsistent. He will go through long stretches of hot play and then follow it with cold stretches. That is kind of the life of Fournier that the Magic have learned the last two years.
Still his ability to dissect plays in the pick and roll and create his own shot in that situation is valuable in this NBA. Match that with his ability to still be effective off the ball as a spot-up shooter and the Magic have a promising young player that will be one of the big gets in free agency this summer.
That makes him valuable in the trade market. And I am sure the Magic will be fielding a lot of calls about him.
Next: No. 5 Elfrid Payton
5. Elfrid Payton, $13 million/4 years, Team Option in 2018, RFA in 2019
The Orlando Magic feel they have their point guard in Elfrid Payton. That is important. Especially with the way the league is.
And Payton is young enough to still have plenty to grow on. So those warts — the shooting and some of his consistency issues playing within Scott Skiles’ offense — are OK. He should still get plenty better even though he has struggled through a good chunk of this season.
There is still mystery about what Payton can become. Everyone seems enamored with his ability to get into the lane and pass. He has good length, good size and good vision. Everything a lot of teams want in a point guard. That makes him desirable on the trade market.
Of course, Payton has his warts.
He is trying to improve his jumper, but the progress has been slow and steady. He is shooting 42.6 percent from the floor this year, about the same as last year but his effective field goal percentage bumped up to 44.7 percent with his better and more confident 3-point shooting.
Payton’s future is dependent on his continued development as a shooter. Otherwise he has all the tools to be really good and should remain a curiosity on the trade market.
For now, he is about as untouchable as any player on the Magic (well, except for the four ahead of him on this list). His defensive regression has been worrying and a big part of the Magic’s struggles, but he has the potential and talent to improve in those areas.
The Magic are not going to part with Payton easily any time soon. A good point guard option, particularly a young one, is hard to find.
Next: 4. Mario Hezonja
4. Mario Hezonja, $23.7 million/5 years, Team Options in 2018 & 2019, RFA in 2020
Mario Hezonja is still the big mystery among the NBA rookies.
The fifth overall pick has been slow to get playing time. But that appears to be slowly correcting itself. Scott Skiles has trusted Hezonja a lot more and he is making the most of his minutes, beginning to show the playmaking and shooting ability that got him his high draft slot.
That legendary confidence is beginning to peak through. The comfort in the NBA is growing and that is making him a better player.
There has been some frustration among fans with how he has grown and been developed. Skiles has had a short leash with him and pulled him after defensive mistakes. That does not hurt his value though.
Teams around the league obviously still have high hopes on him and believe he can fulfill that talent. Surely when the Magic approached teams for major deals they insisted on including Hezonja in the deal. The Magic have not used him enough to make his value all too clear.
The way they acted despite seeking a big splashy trade to push the rebuild forward in keeping Hezonja speaks worlds about what they think about him. Heck, trading Tobias Harris speaks a lot about how the Magic value Hezonja.
There is still a lot of work to go for Hezonja. He has not realized his potential yet. And the Magic are not about to let him go at this stage of his development. He is still really valuable as someone who could grow into a star in the league.
Next: No. 3 Victor Oladipo
3. Victor Oladipo, $20.3 million/3 years, RFA in 2018
Victor Oladipo quickly became a lightning rod and is probably the player among these top five on the trade value column that was most shopped around and likely to get traded.
Oladipo has shown star potential in his three years in the NBA. There are games where he absolutely takes over. He can get to the rim at will. And when his jumper is going down, there is not much defenses can do with him. Look to both Oklahoma City games this year to see him at his absolute best.
The Magic have a big question to answer with him this summer when he is eligible for an extension. And he will get something close to max offers when he becomes a restricted free agent.
For sure, if the Magic have another big move to make before the trade deadline it will come with Oladipo. Teams certainly still buy into his potential and talent.
The Magic do too, which is why they have resisted all overtures or reached in trying to deal Oladipo.
His scoring is starting to come back up after struggling at the beginning of the season. His scoring and shooting are still down after that slow start. But the Magic clearly rely on him for a lot of playmaking late. Oladipo has to continue developing and finding out who he is as a player.
Decisions have to be made on him soon obviously. So that will change. Right now, he can trade on his potential as he continues to produce and improve as an individual player.
Next: 2. Nikola Vucevic
2. Nikola Vucevic, $48 million/4 years
On a team that is based so much on potential, Nikola Vucevic is Mr. Reliable.
The team can count on him for a double double almost every game. His offensive game makes him unique among centers and very difficult to defend. He works well in the pick and roll and his jumper is difficult for centers to track down.
Offensively, Vucevic is about all you could ask for from a center, except for maybe a penchant to stay away from the post on occasion.
Vucevic has flaws for sure. Defensively he is not a good rim protector at all. While he does a good job when he is in position, he does not do a good job keeping out drivers or guarding the pick and roll. His inability to hedge has been an issue for the team in its defensive schemes. It ultimately keeps him from achieving all-star status.
Still, Vucevic is a unique center. And he is on one of the most affordable contracts for a player with his value and production. A team in need of a center would gladly take him. Even as a stop gap.
Vucevic is still a good player in his own right. The Magic would be foolish to let him go without getting anything significant in return. But moving forward, they have a very valuable asset.
Next: No. 1 Aaron Gordon
1. Aaron Gordon, $21.3 million/4 years, Team Option in 2018, RFA in 2019
This is not just a reaction to Aaron Gordon’s stellar performance in the Verizon Slam Dunk Contest. Although that certainly would not hurt his value.
No, Gordon is perhaps the Magic’s most prized possession of a player and the player undoubtedly many teams have called about again and again throughout the whole trade deadline process. The Magic would need a star in return for Gordon and there seems little doubt about that.
It seems weird to say that about a player who averages only 7.7 points per game and 6.1 rebounds per game. He is not a superstar yet.
But that athleticism displayed during the slam dunk contest is something he is using exceedingly well on the defensive end and on the glass.
Gordon is still learning the finer points of team defense, but has already grown into a solid one-on-one defender. He scratches out rebounds with solid athleticism and smarts about how to pursue the ball.
Offensively, he still is incredibly raw. The play he displayed at Summer League is a bit of what he could become, but he has to learn how to pick his spots and be a more consistent driver to create his shot. Not to say about his 3-point shooter — 29.9 percent from beyond the arc this year.
But Gordon has just tapped into his potential. And everyone knows it.
He will get better. How much better? No one knows. Not even Gordon probably knows.
Next: Orlando Magic sought balance in Tobias Harris trade
And on his rookie contract, that limitless potential certainly makes him extremely valuable.