Taking a cue from Grantland’s Bill Simmons and his popular column. What is the trade value of each Orlando Magic player? We rank them 1-15.
The NBA Trade Deadline is quickly approaching — February 19, less than a week away — and eyes are turning quickly toward what deals the Magic might make. And, like every trade deadline, it will be an important one for the Magic.
Orlando has some interesting expiring contracts to play around with. Not to mention young assets the Magic could potentially cash in on.
As always, Rob Hennigan seems to be in a real interesting spot from an asset standpoint. And, as he has said numerous times, the Magic are going to explore every avenue available to them.
There is also the problem on the floor.
Continuing to lose at this alarming rate and in this alarming way, cannot keep up. Something will have to change aside from the coaching staff this summer. That transformation could begin this week.
The Magic are also going to keep an eye on the future. Their trade deadline strategy is going to call for the team to examine everything sent their way, but it will also require them to retain assets or and keep future cap flexibility (target is 2016 for a big-name free agent, it looks like).
Orlando is not going to cash in on assets for a questionable star or some high-priced player. The team is not about to mortgage its future for a fleeting Playoff trip.
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So the Magic appear to be neither buyers nor sellers at this trade deadline. They are still evaluating all their assets and getting a sense of who to keep and who to cash in. That is why Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel named Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo and Nikola Vucevic as the team’s untouchable players. Hard to argue with that.
Just about everyone else on the roster could be had for the right price.
With Bill Simmons’ annual trade value column coming out earlier this month, it seemed like a good time to review and rank the value of each player on the Magic roster.
Like Simmons, everything is in consideration: salary, contract length, on-court production, etc. This is only my list and how I would rank the trade value of each Magic player.
Like Simmons, I will break them down into categories and highlight some of the more valuable players on the Magic’s roster.
Next: Categories I & II -- Devyn Marble and the Veterans
Category I: Devyn Marble
15) Devyn Marble, $4 million/4 yrs., Non-Guaranteed 2015-16, 2016-17; RFA 2017
Players drafted in the second round are on very team-friendly contracts. Marble has shown good things in his stint on the floor, brief though it may be. What are you going to get for him? Not much. He is a throw-in at the moment and really nothing more.
Marble could become a solid player. He needs a lot more development to increase his value and become a quality player in the league. Teams know that if he does not pan out with the Magic, he is easily discardable and they can jump in then.
Category II: Veterans who we know
14) Luke Ridnour, $5.5 million/2 yrs., Non-guaranteed 2015-16
Luke Ridnour has largely done whatever the Magic have asked of him. He has played backup point guard when needed and has been mentor off the bench when needed. No one expected a major statistical contribution from the veteran journeyman.
Certainly a team could us him late int he season and the Magic might very well just waive him to make room for a Peyton Siva or Seth Curry to play the backup point guard minutes.
This is why Ridnour probably does not have a ton of value on the trade market. His price is reasonable and low risk considering his second year is non-guaranteed. The value is low enough to be nothing more than a throw in.
The likelihood that he can be had later — and considering finding another player of comparable ability is probably going to be easier once the CBA season ends — is probably going to keep him from being the center of any trades. That is, unless a team gets desperate.
13) Channing Frye, $32 million/4 yrs.
Channing Frye is the big enigma among the Magic veterans. And truly, the four Magic veterans are a category in their own.
Frye still has value because everyone knows he can drain the 3-pointer. Yet, this year he is decidedly not doing that — 39.3 percent from beyond the arc (which is actually his second best of his career). He has a lot of pressure on him because he is a veteran and because the team is so young, Frye is judged a lot on his production. More so than any other player.
Frye has not performed. Or better yet, has not performed as expected and his offense has not made up for his defensive shortcomings.
On top of this, Frye is in the first year of a four-year contract. The good news is that this season is the year he gets paid the most. His contract reportedly decreases each year. That should make Frye more marketable and tradeable.
A new coach might be able to hide Frye better and pump up his value. Frye is part of the weak links of this team and this defense right now. Whomever the Magic hire will have to figure out the best way to hide him. And hope his shot falls in case it is time to trade him.
12) Willie Green, $1.4 million/1 yr.
The Magic claimed Willie Green off waivers during the summer in a somewhat surprising move. It was not a huge financial commitment and he has proven to be a consistent and reliable veteran off the bench. Not someone that should be in the rotation for a really good team, but someone who can do things the right way.
The coaching staff really trusts him and he does not make a ton of mistakes — other than a few spells of iso-Willie.
So does Green have any value outside of Orlando?
Teams know exactly who he is and what he can do. So that mystery is gone. He is on a minimum deal that expires at the end of the season. It is a low-risk acquisition.
The question is what can the Magic get for him and what would teams give up for him? There is not much. It seems like Green is more likely to get bought out or outright waived to go play for a contender. Other teams might be thinking this is what would happen and will not give up anything of value to get him.
Green has proven himself to have a ton of value. But enough for a trade? That part is not likely.
11) Ben Gordon, $9 million/2 yrs., Non-guaranteed 2015-16
The fact Ben Gordon is contributing anything to the Magic is, frankly, a surprise.
Rob Hennigan and his staff dusted Gordon off from the dust heap and hoped to salvage anything from him. They overpaid to get him and virtually only committed to playing him this year as his contract non-guaranteed for next year.
That makes Gordon, barring any strange clause in his contract guaranteeing his contract should he be traded, kind of valuable on the trade market. That is, if he has proven he still has worth in the league.
Gordon has done some good things for the Magic this year. He has done some scoring off the bench and helped spread the floor for a poor second unit.
He has not been the Ben Gordon of Chicago Bulls lore, but he has not been the one of Charlotte Bobcats lore either. The Magic just wanted a serviceable player and they got one. Without any real desire to spend money, they splurged to bring Gordon in as someone in the locker room to be an example and stay out of the way for the most part on the court.
Does he have any value though?
Few teams would likely take the Magic up on that second year. But for a Playoff push could he help and help a team pass off a bad salary or underperforming player the Magic would risk for? Gordon has played well, but maybe not THAT well.
Next: Category III: We value Moe and Andrew more than you
Category III: We value him more than you do
10) Andrew Nicholson, $7.3 million/3 yrs., RFA 2016
Marc Stein reported last week that the Magic had agreed to make Nicholson more available for trades and try to find a better situation for the young power forward. Our Carson Ingle, reporting from All-Star Weekend in New York, said he spotted Nicholson in the city for All-Star Weekend. That certainly would increase speculation that he and his agent are working to get a deal done before Thursday’s deadline.
The problem is Nicholson is still on his rookie contract and the Magic likely believe in Nicholson more than any other team. The willingness to trade him leaked out by Stein certainly seems to suggest the Magic value him less and would take less on return than they would say Maurice Harkless (see below).
Nicholson has shown a ton of skill in his limited time. He has a robust post game that rightfully earned him the nickname “YMCA.” He added a 3-point shot to his game. But that seemed to limit him in the Magic’s mercurial offense. His defense remains an issue and the biggest thing that keeps him from seeing the floor.
So why would Harkless get the nod over Nicholson?
Nicholson is probably closer to his ceiling. He really peaked well his rookie season and has already started to decline. Whether it is confidence or whatever, his hook shot is not falling with the same reliability. He has fallen far off his expectation and his promise.
Nicholson can be moved. But it depends on how much the value him. They seem open to trading him, but that is no guarantee they actually move him.
9) Maurice Harkless, $8.8 million/3 yrs., RFA 2016
Harkless is probably the hardest player on the Magic to figure.
On one hand, he has more than 100 starts in three years in the NBA. He has proven his potential with his athleticism and his defensive potential. But he has struggled to break into the rotation this season and has been buried on the bench.
It is really hard to give up on a first round pick. Especially one that everyone seems to think has the potential to be a player in this league, and in many ways has proven he can have effect on the game.
Harkless’ struggles this season have been well documents. Value-wise, they are what will keep him from being traded at this point.
Orlando probably values him more than other teams right now. The Magic likely still see a potential in him that other teams do not even if he cannot crack the rotation. Other teams likely see a player that they would like to steal from the Magic for a bargain price.
Here is the push and pull of the trade negotiations involving Maurice Harkless. The Magic are not going to give him away unless they get something valuable for him in return. About the only thing of value the Magic are likely to get for Harkless is another disappointing project or player high on potential that has not quite delivered.
It does not seem Orlando would be much in the market for that. The Magic would likely want someone that can contribute a little more immediately if they were to give up on Harkless’ upside. They do not seem ready to give up on him quite yet.
Next: Category IV: Let me think about it
Category IV: Hold on. Wait a second. Let me think about this.
8) Evan Fournier, $7.1 million/3 yrs., RFA 2016
Fournier jumped out to a great start this season after being buried on the bench in Denver. It looked like Rob Hennigan found a gem in dealing Arron Afflalo quite suddenly.
He has come back to earth some and struggles a bit when he does not have the ball in his hands. He works better as a quasi-point guard creating for others. And he does a good job setting his feet for 3-pointers and getting his shot up quickly.
That a good player does not make. He has proven himself to be pretty streaky. But at just 22 years old, he is young enough to show promise and get everyone thinking.
Fournier has value. His age and his shooting ability make him valuable. He is still on his rookie contract which makes him very valuable. The question is what his his ceiling and what can he contribute to a team? Despite how well he has played, he seems destined to be a bench player for his career without a drastic improvement.
7) Aaron Gordon, $25.3 million/5 yrs., Team Option 2016-17 & 2017-18, RFA 2018
It is really tough to trade a rookie in the first year of his contract. The length is long, but it is a reasonable rookie deal.
Much like Gordon himself. The talent is there, but we are not quite sure what it is. This is not about the Magic and whether they would make a deal though. This is about who a team would make a deal for.
Gordon is a big mystery and that plays into his value. The 19-year-old forward is all potential. No one is quite sure what he will become. But what he could become is what tantalizes. Only no one probably wants to put in the work to develop him. They would probably want to leave that to someone else.
So, as a rookie, Gordon is probably best left where he is to develop with the Magic. Let them figure out what he is and who he can become. Traders can reap the benefits later or a little closer down the road.
6) Dewayne Dedmon, $3 million/3 yrs, 2016 season non-guaranteed, RFA 2016
Dedmon is still a really intriguing and interesting talent. He has had trouble breaking into the Magic’s rotation consistently, but there is no denying his defensive talent and ability. It is still very raw, but he has put things together. He went into the break on the back of three very strong games.
His offensive game remains pretty non-existent however. Dedmon is not going to do much more than put back and rebound with the ball in his hands.
And defensively, he can get a bit overzealous. Causing as many fouls as he does blocks — 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes to 6.8 fouls per 36 minutes. Still, that is more than enough as a 7-footer to get a ton of interest.
Next: No. 5 Elfrid Payton
5) Elfrid Payton, $15.4 million/5 yrs., Team Options 2016-17, 2017-18; RFA 2018
The Magic’s spunky point guard has shown he belongs in the league after toiling in the Sun Belt for three years and then shooting up draft charts right before the Draft. The Magic gave up a lot to get him — Dario Saric (the 12th overall pick) along with sending back the pick acquired from Philadelphia in the Dwight Howard trade.
So far, Payton has rewarded that investment.
He is adept at driving into the paint and looking to pass. He is always searching for teammates cutting and moving off him. Payton has completed some incredible passes and run the Magic pretty effectively for a rookie.
Especially for a rookie that does not have a reliable or consistent jumper. That is the part of his game Payton desperately needs to continue to improve. There is not a whole lot to do about it in season except continue to improve and work on mechanics.
For what Payton is, he has proven to be good for the Magic.
For this trade market, Payton just does not pop (nor are the Magic very interested in moving him). There are a lot of point guards available in Goran Dragic and Ty Lawson that would supersede Payton on the market. He just is not going to be in demand.
Again, as if the Magic would trade him.
They spent the entire All-Star Weekend advertising how Oladipo and Payton are their backcourt of the future. That is apparently the direction the Magic would want to go. It seems unlikely Orlando would make any moves to bring in another point guard, because they have their point guard set right now.
That is Payton. His ceiling is still completely unknown because his jumper needs a ton of work. The Magic though like his growth potential and they will value him pretty highly.
Next: No. 4 Tobias Harris
4) Tobias Harris, $5.8 million/2 yrs., RFA 2015
Probably the man at the center of every trade rumor or fantasy the Magic might have. Harris’ future with the Magic is extremely uncertain. Adding to that uncertainty is the fact he is an unrestricted free agent.
Orlando offered him one value, Harris wanted another this summer. The two decided to let the market set itself.
So what is that market?
That is extremely difficult to say.
Bill Simmons in his trade value column seemed pretty excited, but left Harris off his top-50:
"Tobias Harris: Why I Might Rejoice If My Celtics Offered Him $70 Million For Four Years As A Restricted Free Agent This Summer: He doesn’t turn 23 until July … he’s already a steady 18-and-7 guy … he’s a stretch 4 who makes 3s (2015: 41 percent) … he’s competitive as hell … there’s a decent chance he could evolve into a 50-40-80 guy … he’s never played for a good coach in his life … he loves taking and making big shots … you can never go wrong with anyone named “Tobias” … and he already has his own “Buzzer Beater” YouTube Montage."
The Magic have made it clear they will match any offer he gets. That is probably true so long as it is not crazy backloaded. But anything reasonable — something in the lines of four-years, $48 million — probably is in the range the Magic are willing to spend.
The other question is do teams value Harris enough to want that protection of being able to match him. Or do they think he is going to get that big contract the Magic would be unwilling to match and are afraid to give up the assets to get him.
That is the difficulty of figuring out Tobias Harris.
Only the Magic really know how good he is and what they are willing to pay for him. Other teams are only guessing on what his value might be. If the Magic shop him around too much, it becomes clear the Magic think he is due a big contract this summer.
That would make it tough to get a full return for him. The Magic are not likely to give him up for nothing. It is a pickle and a very difficult decision.
Next: No. 3 Kyle O'Quinn
3) Kyle O’Quinn, $2.1 million/2 yrs., RFA 2015
Kyle O’Quinn might be the biggest bargain and the biggest risk on the Magic roster when it comes to trades.
First, O’Quinn is a second round pick from a small school. He has brought himself into the league by his own bootstraps and his hard work to scratch out a living and a place in teh Magic’s rotation is proof of his work ethic and his skill.
Second, there are very few big men with O’Quinn’s kind of skill. He has expanded his range to the 3-point line, but is fine working out of the high post. The Magic severely under utilize his passing ability from the high post. His post game is limited, but he can play a great high-low game with a post-up center.
Third, O’Quinn is a pretty good defender. He has good timing on blocking shots which is impressive for a player standing at 6-foot-10.
There is a lot O’Quinn can improve upon, but he has clearly earned a ton more consideration. Of any player on the Magic roster, O’Quinn is the most likely to be priced out of their range and the emergence of Dewayne Dedmon has made O’Quinn somewhat expendable.
This is not a direct call to trade Kyle O’Quinn, but now might be the time to cash in.
O’Quinn will be a restricted free agent, giving the Magic the right to match any offer he gets. It is quite likely someone will throw a good chunk of their mid-level exception at him. Everyone seems to think it will be O’Quinn’s hometown Knicks should they miss out on Greg Monroe and Marc Gasol this summer.
Skilled big men are very hard to find. And O’Quinn is definitely third among those post players, but would not be the worst thing for the Knicks to acquire. Again, his ability to pass out of the high post has been under used by the Magic. He would do wonders in the triangle.
The last time the Magic were in this situation with a backup point guard, they opted to match Marcin Gortat‘s big deal and figured they would be able to cash in on Gortat as an asset. That may not exactly be the case with O’Quinn. He may not quite garner that kind of an offer.
Just like with Tobias Harris, the Magic have a very big decision to make with Kyle O’Quinn. He is going to get a significant increase in his salary and the Magic really have to judge his value. There is not a lot you can get for him right now though without absorbing more salary. A team that acquires him knows they will have to pay this summer.
Next: No. 2: Nikola Vucevic
2) Nikola Vucevic, $50.8 million/5 yrs.
Nikola Vucevic was truly close to being an All Star this year. He has earned that distinction with the way he gobbles up rebounds and has improved his ability to read pick and rolls as a center, step out and hit jumpers and pair that with a pretty advanced post game.
Does Vucevic have his limitations? Absolutely.
He does not have a ton of lateral quickness and does not have athleticism to rim run or protect the rim on defense. Vucevic is never going to be an elite defender, although he has improved with his ability to remain vertical and gain position. It is going to be a work in progress on that end for him and he needs the right player around him.
Right now, as Simmons notes, Vucevic might be a better fantasy player than NBA player (ranked with Jonas Valanciunas at No. 49 and 48):
"Two enticing young centers with defensive flaws: Jonas needs to fix the whole “I’m playing for a contender that’s afraid to keep me out there in the fourth quarter” thing, and Vucevic needs to fix the whole “Right now, I’m a much better fantasy player than a real NBA player” thing. At gunpoint, I’d pick Vucevic only because we have to take every current Magic player’s career with a grain of salt — it’s unclear whether Jacque Vaughn should be managing a Costco, much less coaching an NBA team."
But finding a 24-year-old 7-footer who can consistently rack up double doubles is not a common thing. And the Magic got a steal for a player like that in signing him to a four-year, $48 million extension. With the high demand for centers — remember the Knicks seem to be focused on Monroe and Gasol this summer — Vucevic could have gotten a humongous deal.
Now making about $12 million per year, Vucevic is on a pretty moveable deal should the Magic need an upgrade or cash in on the young center down the line.
That part is valuable in evaluating the deal the Magic gave Vucevic.
If Orlando made Vucevic available, teams would be lining up to acquire him. There seems to be no doubt about that. And, despite his defensive deficiencies, the Magic feel very comfortable with him as their center for the long term.
Next: No. 1 Victor Oladipo
1) Victor Oladipo, $25.3 million/4 yrs., Team Option 2016-17, RFA 2017
Oladipo announced himself as a marketable player and a star in the making with the way he performed and took the stage at the Sprite Slam Dunk. His Q Score went up significantly, although he ended up losing to Zach LaVine.
Oladipo was surprisingly all over the All-Star Weekend.
And, even though he struggled some in his Rising Stars performance trying to carry the U.S. team to a win, Oladipo proved himself to be the most visible and charismatic player on the Magic’s roster. This was his weekend as far as Magic fans were concerned and he shined on the biggest stage.
A dunk contest does not a good player make — see Jeremy Evans — but the Magic looked like they had a face of the franchise.
That is why Oladipo comes in at No. 1.
He has improved his jumper significantly this year and is continuing to learn how to break down a defense off the dibble and be a top option. He has to be for this team, even if that might not ultimately be where he ends up.
Oladipo’s defense has slipped, but he should be able to reach back and bring it back as his offensive load decreases.
He got some rave reviews from Simmons in coming at No. 50 in the trade value column with fellow draft classmate Alex Len:
"Two of my favorite Class of ’13 guys. We knew Oladipo would be a tenacious defender, but he’s a better scorer/shooter than anyone expected (40 percent 3FG right now). And the extra-long, extra-lanky, sneaky-chippy and shockingly agile Len looms as an unexpected X factor if Phoenix hangs on to its playoff spot. We forgive him for being the first person to make the words “former Ukrainian gymnast” NOT seem sexy in any way."
More importantly, he is in his second year with still plenty of growth potential and on his rookie contract. Oladipo established himself as the best player from his draft class this weekend.
The Magic really do have a keeper in Oladipo. Maybe not a superstar, but certainly a solid player. One that is certainly a key part of the team’s future.
Next: We open up the mailbag and answer some trade deadline questions