Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Volume 4: Coaching questions

The trade deadline is this week and there are a lot of questions surrounding the Orlando Magic and their future. Let’s answer a few of them in our mailbag.

Well, we have made it to the All-Star Break. It has been an eventful year and we need this break, just to relieve us from some frustrating basketball.

Orlando has already fired their coach in Jacque Vaughn sending the future of the franchise into a sort of turmoil. There are serious questions about where this team goes right now and what direction Rob Hennigan will take it. It would be silly at this point if everyone in the Magic offices and in the locker room were not on high alert.

We are here to break everything down. And since we have more than a week without basketball (weird, right?), it seemed like a good time to open the mailbag. I have been collecting your questions for a while now and they need some answering!

A few of these questions were surely answered in our podcast earlier this week.

If you ever have a question feel free to drop me a line at omagicdaily@gmail.com or on Twitter at @omagicdaily.

Let’s open the Mailbag!

Next: Will the Magic be active in the trade market?

The short answer is the Magic are always going to be active at the trade deadline. They have assets and they want to collect assets. So there is always the chance to make a trade. As Rob Hennigan says, the team always has to evaluate everything. And the Magic are not in a position to turn down any phone calls.

Now, do the Magic have anything to trade? I am going to be coming out with a trade value column before Thursday’s deadline (I hope). But the biggest piece the Magic are likely to move is Tobias Harris. His restricted free agency presents something of a problem. The Magic, and the league, are not quite sure what his value is and Hennigan has made it known the Magic will match just about any offer.

A team would have to take a poison pill to sign him away from Orlando at this point. And to acquire him? A team would have to really have a good idea of what they think his value would be in the open market. And the Magic would have to feel they got a good return on investment.

It gets really complicated.

Having said that . . .

It is really 50/50.

The Magic are not going to trade Tobias just to trade him. There has to be purpose behind it and they have to get something valuable in return.

That is, unless the Magic come to realize that he is going to get more than they are willing to pay in free agency. Nobody seems certain if Harris will get that much. Orlando opted to let the market set Harris’ price rather than spend too much on an extension. Harris has probably not done enough to escape the area the Magic will match.

Unless Orlando gets an offer the team really likes, the team likely holds onto Harris through the deadline.

Next: Who is better: Horford or Vucevic?

OK, so this is a redirect of the All-Star question. We know by now that Al Horford got the All-Star nod over Nikola Vucevic. And it was deserved.

Sure the raw numbers do not tell you that — Horford is at 15.5 points per game and 7.3 rebounds per game through Feb. 9 while Vucevic is at 19.4 points and 11.2 rebounds per game. Horford has a 21.6 PER and Vucevic is at 22.1. So these are two relatively comparable players.

So who is better?

Horford has had his injury issues throughout his career, but I would have to say Horford is the better player overall.

Vucevic might have a more refined post game, but Horford is no push over either on that end. He is a solid post player with good range on his shot. The two are comparable.

What is different though is the defensive end. Horford’s raw rebounding numbers are not as good as Vucevic’s but he posts a solid 20.2 percent defensive rebound percentage this year. And on the defensive end, Horford posts significantly better numbers.

Al Horford

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/10/2015.

Nikola Vucevic

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/10/2015.

The defensive numbers are partly from the teams they are playing for. But Vucevic’s defensive numbers do not impress in any way. And, it would seem, Vucevic’s defensive numbers are getting a little bit worse.

Defense is what is going to hold Vucevic back. There just is no getting around it right now.

Next: Better trade: Rafer Alston or Nikola Vucevic?

This question is a really really intriguing one. There is so much going into each of those trades.

To set the table here, let’s refresh our memories. First the Rafer Alston deal:

Remember where the Magic were at here too. Jameer Nelson got hurt Feb. 2 against Dallas and Orlando’s championship drive faced a very uncertain future. Orlando treaded water but a national television disaster in New Orleans right before the trade deadline made it clear Orlando was not winning a title even after acquiring Tyronn Lue as a stop gap to backup Anthony Johnson.

In essence, the Magic had to make this trade to remain contenders.

And remain contenders they did.

Obviously, Orlando was in a very different when the team acquired Nikola Vucevic. Dwight Howard wanted out and the Magic’s options were extremely limited. And they did not like the potential returns of Andrew Bynum and Brook Lopez. So they struck a complicated four-team deal:

The Magic put their money in getting a lot of future assets. A ton of draft picks (used on Romero Osby and Elfrid Payton so far, with the Philadelphia pick sent back to get Payton) and young players in Vucevic and Harkless. Amazingly, most of those players are gone now with Vucevic and Harkless remaining.

Really the deal was about tearing things down to start over. Vucevic turning into a borderline All Star was necessary but very much a huge bonus as well.

These deals were made under such different circumstances. Really, about anything the Magic could have gotten to get out from the Dwight catastrophe was going to be OK. And Orlando was going to be bad for a few years anyway. There was no way around it.

So, I have to take the Alston trade. It really changed the team’s fortunes that season, and in many ways, saved the season. The Alston trade had such a huge impact on that Magic team. Howard was gone anyway, and the Magic were tearing down anyway. Vucevic is a nice piece, but he obviously did not make a title team (not that he could with what was left around him and the growth he still needed).

Then you consider Alston helped the Magic net Ryan Anderson. Double good move.

Next: Who can help Elfrid Payton with his shooting?

Elfrid Payton is going to get shooting help from just about anyone that the Magic have on staff or have on the roster. I am sure Ben Gordon is included in that.

Orlando has hired a shooting coach to work with Aaron Gordon, and I am sure he is working with Payton too. Really a lot of this work is going to be done on his own this offseason as a coach of his choosing will likely break down his shooting form and get him better.

The Magic surely will tell him the obvious that they would like to see him work on his shot.

Having a veteran like Ben Gordon around is certainly going to help Payton by something like osmosis. What veterans really teach is how to go about your business and weather the ups and downs of a regular season. Payton has undoubtedly learned a lot from Gordon and Channing Frye in this respect.

Payton is a hard worker in his own right. I am sure he will put the work in on his own. But will he gain everything from watching Ben Gordon go to work and rescue his career? Absolutely.

Next: Would Vucevic benefit from working with Hakeem?

A pair of Nikola Vucevic questions here…

The short answer is yes, you can always improve. The long answer is no it probably would not be necessary.

Vucevic is a pretty accomplished post player already. He has shown an array of post moves already and has good foot work. His jumper keeps opponents honest when he faces up and he is good at getting his shot in the post. Vucevic could maybe expand his post game and counters. And there a guy like Hakeem would help.

Diving a bit deeper into the numbers, maybe the issue is a little more complicated.

According to NBA.com, Vucevic scores 0.86 points per possession on post ups, shooting 45.7 percent from the post. He obviously does not have a crazy athleticism to work in the post but he has to the footwork and patience to free himself up. Him getting into the paint is also part of him gaining strength. He tends to fade late in games and sometimes favors his jumper later in games rather than continuing to attack.

The Magic score on 43.8 percent of Vucevic’s post ups. You would like to see that number go up if Vucevic is going to be a central figure in the offense.

A lot of this you feel Vucevic will improve upon as he gets older and understands his weaknesses in the post.

Workout with Hakeem Olajuwon would be nice. It can only help. It is not as necessary as it would have been for Dwight Howard. It will be itneresting to see how Vucevic continues to develop as a post player.

But . . .

Yes. You take Jahlil Okafor.

The Magic are still in something of an asset-collection mode. Orlando does not have any player that you can definitively say is a superstar or All Star player. Nikola Vucevic has had a crazy good year and he is probably near his ceiling as a borderline All Star in the depleted Eastern Conference.

As good as Vucevic is in the post, Okafor has the potential to be better. NBADraft.net compares him to Al Jefferson, and it is hard not to see it. He has an advanced post game and understands what to do with deep post position. It is rare to see a freshman this advanced. He could be a really interesting and potent talent.

You can put a rebounder or shot protector next to a player like Okafor and figure things out from there. Unlike Vucevic, Okafor does have the athleticism to be a great defender. He just has to apply himself at that end.

Talent wins over all. Vucevic is on such a friendly contract extension, that he will be valuable in the trade market. Okafor would easily make Vucevic very expendable.

Next: Would Paul Millsap make a good free agent target?

I guess we need to start talking about potential free agents now or soon.

The Magic first have to select someone in the draft. That will affect what needs they have in free agency. Then they have to figure out the futures of Tobias Harris and Kyle O’Quinn. Both are restricted free agents and so will put a cap hold on all that cap room the Magic have. It is going to be hard to offer a ton of money at any player this summer until the Magic resolve the Harris and O’Quinn situations.

Millsap seems like the kind of player the Magic would go after as a free agent. He is a hard worker and pretty versatile. Like so many players on the Magic, he can play both forward positions. He can stretch the floor some. He would seem to make sense.

Right now, he is on a bargain contract too. Millsap is finishing up a deal that ends at $9.5 million. He completed a two-year deal he seemed a bit unhappy to sign since he thought he was worth more. Being an All Star this year will certainly drive his price up.

At 30 years old now, you have to ask whether Millsap will be worth a four-year, $48 million deal. That is probably the range he is looking for. Or he could come back on a similar deal to stay in Atlanta.

Millsap could fit, but it means dumping off Tobias Harris for sure. The Magic may not have the luxury to go for Millsap and wait around for Harris. Or wait for Harris and go after Millsap. He is going to be more in demand this time than he was the last time he hit free agency.

But Millsap could be the kind of player the Magic look to add through free agency. Maybe not at that price point, but a peripheral role player that supplements the roster some.

The big free agent strike still feels a year away.

Next: Do the Magic need a rim protector?

From Hurley Whitaker, via e-mail:

"This is a “hard look in the mirror” question: can the Magic ever be an above-average defensive team if Vucevic is on the floor? Do Payton, Oladipo, and Aaron Gordon have to turn into 3-headed Cerberus-level dog for that to happen? Who’s our 4 in all this? Vooch’s D makes me want to flip Harris for Taj Gibson, straight up, just to have a hardcore interior defender next to Nik."

There has obviously been a lot of talk in this mailbag about Nikola Vucevic and the power forward spot. It all goes back to interior defending, which the Magic have not been very good at.

Teams are shooting 54.3 percent at the rim against the Magic according to NBA.com, third worst in the league. They are doing this on 20.7 field goal attempts per game at the rim, the fourth lowest in the league. Teams are finding themselves not only in the paint, but at the rim and capable of scoring.

This is obviously a problem that the Magic need to address if they hope to make the Playoffs next season.

There are some schematic things the Magic can do if they are going to push for Vucevic to be the center. I do believe they can be an above-average defense even without a rim protector next to Vucevic. They just need a solid defender who can shift and rotate to cover for Vucevic when he is guarding the pick and roll (Glen Davis was great at this).

Last year, the Magic were tied for 17th in defensive rating with 104.8 points allowed per 100 possessions. That is slightly below the median for the league. So it is possible for this team to play at least average defense with Vucevic as the center. It takes the right scheme.

Frye has not been able to rotate and move laterally fast enough to cover for Vucevic’s mistakes. And Jacque Vaughn had the guards hedging very hard and playing over aggressive often. This leaves Vucevic and Frye very exposed on the back side. The struggles on teh ball has been the biggest issue for the Magic this season.

I believe it is possible to have a decent defense here. It would be nice to have another rim protector , but really it just takes a forward who understands how to rotate quickly. Aaron Gordon could very well be that guy. I don’t think the Bulls would take Tobias Harris at this point. Taj Gibson could be a guy that does fit that role, but I would not sell the farm for him either.

Dewayne Dedmon has done an admirable job of late. He is still very raw and so his development should be watched closely if he stays on the Magic roster.

Next: How did I start writing?

This is a great question and I wanted to be sure to answer it because I think part of this enterprise is to help young writers (go ahead and click on that Write for Us button at the top if you are interested!).

I have been writing since I was in elementary school. I figured if I could not play basketball, I might as well write about it. I am an obsessive Magic fan and wanted to know everything about this team. I watched tons of SportsCenter in the mornings, read Brian Schmitz, Tim Povtak and L.C. Johnson (going wayyy back there!) in the Orlando Sentinel every morning.

I really pursued journalism in high school. I worked for the Orlando Sentinel covering high school football while I was in high school myself and went to Northwestern University (you will see me post a stray Wildcats tweet here or there when I forget to switch my Twitter account on TweetDeck).

The Magic were always my passion as I worked to become a professional reporter. I felt I needed an outlet.

So I started just writing my stray thoughts on the Magic on a Bloggr I started — The Curse of the Big Aristotle (it’s still up!). It was more of a place to let it blurt, as my middle school writing teacher would say. I had these thoughts in my mind and I wanted to get them on paper. If people wanted to read it fine.

This started more seriously around the time the Magic were making the Finals run which made Magic conversations a lot more exciting and led to the explosion of Orlando Pinstriped Post (nee Third Quarter Collapse) and this site. I was invited to join Orlando Magic Daily in 2010, and the rest is history.

;If you are looking for advice to get going: write. Write anywhere and everywhere you can. I really do believe this space can be a great place to develop your voice and your craft. Do not be afraid to submit and put yourself out there. There are amazing opportunities out there.

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