The Orlando Magic enter the trade deadline with a lot of questions to answer about their future. We take stock of the trade assets they have today.
Every year at the trade deadline, there is a feeling of hope and opportunity.
This decision point forces action for many teams as they try to make their last push for the Playoffs or prepare for a summer of changing to get there. Nothing forces movement like a deadline.
With all the usual drama around the NBA, the chatter gets pretty loud. Everyone is trying to climb their way closer to the top. Or the future they want to have. It is easy to let speculation and Trade Machine dreaming get out of hand.
These are real decisions every team has to make though. The things they do that set up the final 30-or-so games of the season have far-reaching consequences.
Already the NBA has seen some pretty seismic shifts.
The New York Knicks traded Kristaps Porzingis to the Dallas Mavericks to pair him with Luka Doncic for what they think is the long-term. The LA Clippers prepped for their own run at massive free agents this summer by moving Tobias Harris to the Philadelphia 76ers, picking up Landry Shamet and a couple of first-round picks for their troubles.
Wednesday night, the Washington Wizards traded Otto Porter to the Chicago Bulls and then the Dallas Mavericks traded Harrison Barnes to the Sacramento Kings, both the Wizards and Mavericks clearing
And Anthony Davis‘ trade request and the ransom the New Orleans Pelicans are demanding from the Los Angeles Lakers looms over all of that.
There are big stories to play out before Thursday’s trade deadline.
The Orlando Magic have their own questions to answer.
The team is in a better spot than it was last year at 22-32. The team can at least pretend it is still in the Playoff race just four games behind the Miami Heat for the final spot.
But they are also still trying to rebuild so they can be a consistent Playoff team. That is clearly what they are not now even if they are playing a whole lot better.
The Magic still have a lot of work to do to flip over their roster and improve. And with two key players set to become unrestricted free agents in Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross they have some big decisions to set up their long-term future.
The Magic do not project to have any cap room this summer — especially if they decide to keep Nikola Vucevic or Terrence Ross this offseason — and so their ability to get better feels limited. Perhaps limited to the internal improvement of their young players or trading in some players on long-term deals.
That might mean getting worse in the short-term. And that activity might start at the trade deadline.
Of course, the Magic also want to win. There is no denying this has been a long slog to rebuild and the franchise organizationally is hungry to take a step forward. Even if it is superficial.
Orlando is surely already pretty deep into the waters with trade discussions with the deadline approaching soon. They have already likely taken stock of what they have to offer and where their priorities lie.
It is our turn to do that too.
As I have done for the last few years, I am stealing a page from Bill Simmons’ book and ranking the Magic’s trade assets. Like his list, the premise of the following list is that you would trade Player 2 for Player 1 straight up and so on down the line, taking into consideration contract, player age and production.
You can reference last year’s list here. And even if the Magic make a move and this list feels old, it should still be a handy guide as the Magic approach the next trading period at the Draft.
Category I — Sure, You Can Have Him
17. Troy Caupain (2-Way Contract)
Players on two-way contracts actually cannot be traded. They would first have to have their contracts converted to a regular NBA contract and that would require an open roster spot. That is not something the Orlando Magic have right now.
But these players deserve at least some mention just to give them some love for their work for the Lakeland Magic, who are currently 21-12 and second in the Eastern Conference. The Magic have at the very least two very intriguing players at the G-League level hungry for a chance with the big team if the Magic would give it.
Let’s start with Troy Caupain, who I rate slightly lower than Amile Jefferson just because of experience at that level.
Caupain followed up last year’s surprisingly efficient year as a shooter and as a point guard with a second straight strong year. Caupain is averaging 16.4 points per game and shooting 37.7 percent from beyond the arc. he also averages 5.1 assists per game.
Caupain appears to have improved all the areas he needed to get better. Whether he ends up getting an opportunity with the Magic or not, Caupain is deserving of a NBA look somewhere.
16. Amile Jefferson (2-Way Contract)
The same thing goes for Amile Jefferson. He is not eligible to be traded on a two-way contract. But he has put in a strong effort for the Lakeland Magic so far this season.
He leads Lakeland in both scoring (17.7 points per game) and rebounding (11.4 rebounds per game). This is par for the course for Jefferson. He led the G-League in rebounding last year for the Iowa Wolves.
Jefferson probably deserves a NBA look sooner rather than later. He is a bit undersized but hard-working on the glass and his range is slowly expanding.
The Magic have a pair of really strong two-way players developing in their system. The team just needs to find a way to play them on the main roster.
Orlando Magic
15. Jarell Martin (1 year, $2.4 million)
The Orlando Magic acquired the other two players in this category with the same thinking and taking the same risk. The exact kind of risk the Magic should take with these young players. There was no loss in them failing. Except maybe the production the team was relying on them to provide.
Orlando acquired Jarell Martin in return for Dakari Johnson (whom the team probably was cutting anyway). They were hoping they could give Martin a chance in a different environment and see if he could stick in the NBA.
That plan has not worked out. Some of it is that Martin never really got an opportunity. He has played in just 28 games and 8.4 minutes per game. It is hard to judge much of what Martin has done.
He has shown some improved 3-point shooting and outside range. But it has not been enough to get minutes. The Magic are not likely even to offer him a qualifying offer.
14. Jerian Grant (1 year, $2.6 million)
The same could be said for Jerian Grant.
Unlike Martin, Grant had a clear role coming into the season. The Magic were going to try him out as the backup point guard. And he had a track record that suggested he could potentially do it. It was not like Grant had not played before. He had more consistent playing time than Martin at least.
Jerian Grant though has lost that role to upstart rookie Isaiah Briscoe after struggling to provide much offensively. He is averaging only 4.1 points per game and 2.9 assists per game. He struggled to get the team into their sets and took a major step back after showing some promise last year.
Like Martin, the Magic are not likely to even offer him the qualifying offer. The Magic struck out on both of their second draft players.
Category II — Let me think about it
13. Isaiah Briscoe (1 year, $0.8 million)
It is really hard to trade minimum contracts. They are essentially throw-ins to get just over the line. So there really is not much benefit in discussing the trade value of players on minimum deals. Especially rookies.
And on that point, Isaiah Briscoe fits in. The Magic probably could not get much in return for him even if they wanted to.
Frankly, the Magic have no reason to shop Briscoe around or even use him as a throw-in. He has played surprisingly well and been one of the few shots in the dark that have worked for the Magic.
Briscoe has emerged as the team’s backup point guard, providing some hard-nosed defense and physicality to a bench that needs that energy. He is still improving as a passer but has shown a good knack at dishing the ball off his drives. That will be a work in progress like his shot. But a good rookie year for Briscoe should get him a second look somewhere.
12. Melvin Frazier (3 years, $4.1 million)
The Orlando Magic have gotten into the habit of taking a slow approach with the second-round picks they have taken. Justin Jackson has been with the Lakeland Magic all year while recovering from injury. And like Wesley Iwundu last year, Melvin Frazier is also getting more time in Lakeland than he is on the Magic’s main roster.
Then again, maybe it is Wesley Iwundu’s emergence this year that has pushed Melvin Frazier for more development time.
Frazier has appeared in just three games on the main roster so far this year. None of those have come in meaningful minutes.
If there is good news it is that he is playing well for the Lakeland Magic. In 13 games, he is averaging 12.3 points per game and shooting a surprising 50.0 percent from beyond the arc. That is a good sign that he is developing well. The Magic have let him work on that in the G-League.
But with Iwundu and Frazier having similar profiles, the Magic might be willing to throw in this promising player as a sweetener in a deal.
11. Timofey Mozgov (2 years, $32.7 million)
This is the part where some Magic fans might ask why Timofey Mozgov is ahead of anyone on this list. After all, he has not played a game all season as he recovers from a knee injury. No one really even bothers to ask the status of his recovery. He has not dressed in uniform for any regular season game so far.
What value could Mozgov possibly have?
That is a good question. It is a fair question.
But I suspect Mozgov will have some value very soon. If the Magic want to hold the roster spot for him (the cap hit will be there anyway and stretching him is a very bad idea), Mozgov becomes something pretty valuable for a team looking to shed salary — an expiring contract.
Mozgov may not ever play a minute for the Magic. But that expiring contract could very well have some value for a team moving forward.
The reality is the Magic are probably not going to sign any major free agent any time soon. If they want to make a splashy trade, Mozgov along with another smaller contract they want to shed, could be their best bet to do that.
And so, I think Mozgov has some value. Depending on the asset the Magic attach to him to make it worth a team’s while. Look for Mozgov to be worth even more closer to next year’s deadline.
Category III — Is that what you are offering? OK, I guess
10. Khem Birch (1 year, $1.4 million)
Khem Birch is a player searching for playing time. The guy has gotten asked (usually around this time of year) to play meaningful minutes after spending most of the season on the bench and then performs admirably.
Khem Birch will play critical minutes the rest of the season with Mohamed Bamba out with a stress fracture. Birch is more than capable of playing. He has stepped in well for Mohamed Bamba at various points this season already.
Birch is a good defender and has smarts in defending pick and rolls, using his size and length well. He is a good shot blocker too. The only thing missing with him is perhaps some lateral quickness and awareness diagnosing plays in the paint. His pick and roll defense is probably the best on the team.
This is just a player screaming for a more consistent role. One the Magic have struggled to give him in two years. With a qualifying offer this summer, the Magic will have an interesting decision on whether they give him a long-term deal or not.
9. Wesley Iwundu (2 years, $3 million)
Wesley Iwundu has emerged in his sophomore year as a reliable defensive wing off the bench. His weaknesses are still apparent — namely his shooting — but Iwundu has always played hard and filled in the role the team needs him to fill.
The Magic are probably a bit surprised with how much Iwundu has grown this year. They sort of drafted Melvin Frazier as a duplicate talent in case Wesley Iwundu did not work out. It is safe to say Iwundu has worked out.
Iwundu has entrenched himself in the rotation now as a vital defensive presence. But he is also improving and getting more confident with his shot. Iwundu is shooting 32.5 percent from three. That is not great still, but a massive improvement for the young guard.
Iwundu has displayed a ton more confidence and is a promising young player to come off the bench and add depth in future years. Other teams might see this. But his contract is too low to be much more than a throw in for a deal. And not one the Magic are really ready to give up.
8. Jonathon Simmons (2 years, $11.7 million)
Jonathon Simmons is the first player on this list the Maigc might actually be willing to trade or could get some type of value for.
Simmons has a good track record to build off of from his time with the San Antonio Spurs and even last year’s run with the Orlando Magic as their sixth man. He showed he can get to the basket and make shots streaky enough to be a real threat and explode for some big games.
This year has been a bit of an aberration. He is struggling with his shot — shooting just 36.4 percent for the year and a sub-40 percent effective field goal percentage. That is not good.
He has a built-in excuse with the wrist surgery that kept him out for most of the summer. Simmons has just failed to find his rhythm this year. He has enough of a track record built up that many may view this year as an aberration.
His real value in the trade market though comes with his contract next year. Only $1 million of his $5.7 million is guaranteed. If there is a team that wants to clear cap room, the Magic could easily offer him with a second-round pick to grab a second draft player (a player at the end of his rookie contract).
Simmons should stil have some value on the trade market. Now that Simmons is out of the rotation and Iwundu has taken over that role, perhaps the Magic could look to move on and cash him in (more than anyone else) with a potential split happening this summer.
Category IV — If you keep twisting my arm, I might say maybe
7. Evan Fournier (3 years, $51 million)
Evan Fournier is not a worse player than D.J. Augustin. He is probably not a worse player than most of the players still upcoming on this list. But there are a combination of factors that will push Fournier down this list and make it more difficult for the Orlando Magic to trade him at this deadline or even moving forward.
Fournier is still owed $17 million per season for the next three years. At the production he was at when he signed it, it felt like a slight overpay if not a fair deal. Fournier is a solid shooter and scorer. The Magic needed him to play a role bigger than he probably should.
That was a tough ask. But the one thing that would keep Fournier with some value was that he was a reliable shooter and his scoring just kept increasing. That last part was not sustainable but the shooting should be.
This year is an aberration then. Fournier is hitting on just 33.9 percent from beyond the arc, a career low. Any hope of getting equal value for Fournier is probably out the window.
He is nearly untradeable at this deadline (unless the Orlando Magic are looking for a salary dump like the Dallas Mavericks got for Harrison Barnes, although Dallas did rally well to get Justin Jackson).
Still, the player the Magic are probably most eager to move and get some value for is Fournier. His contract is weighing down the Magic’s books, especially since his production and efficiency have dropped so much. And he is proving to be the hardest guy to move.
6. D.J. Augustin (2 years, $7.3 million)
D.J. Augustin is probably the player with surprisingly the most value. When the Magic signed him four years ago in that fateful summer of 2016, it felt like the team overpaid for a guy who was an inconsistent backup. He had bounced around the league so much with no stability, he was just happy to have some long-term security. Both the amount and the years felt ltoo long.
Augustin had something of an up-and-down ride to start his career with the Magic. But he has put together back-to-back solid years and the Magic would be in a much tougher spot without him.
Like with Fournier, the Magic have certainly asked too much of him. He probably should not be a starter on a winning team. Augustin is more a high-end backup. But the Magic have valued and needed his stability at that position to make this season work.
Augustin has averaged 11.7 points per game and 4.7 assists per game. Hardly amazing statistics. But he is a reliable shooter.
Augustin’s trade value will skyrocket this summer. He is on an affordable deal now and will be expiring this offseason. There could be a team in need of point guard help that could ask about him.
5. Mohamed Bamba (4 years, $24.1 million)
The Orlando Magic believe they have something of an interesting trio to develop with Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac and Mohamed Bamba. They are far from ready to give up on that without any real experimentation with that group.
This year was not the year to experiment with it.
Bamba was still a rookie and far from ready to play in the NBA. They knew that when they drafted him. And so the Magic are willing to be patient and wait for him to develop.
Bamba’s year may now be over with a stress fracture in his left tibia. The Magic still seem hopeful that he will return before the end of the year. They have limited his minutes some because of Nikola Vucevic’s All-Star turn but also to put him in positions to succeed.
His statistics are probably nothing to write home about — 6.2 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. But he showed plentyo f potential and grow that goes beyond his record-setting wingspan.
The Magic are definitely not trading him. They value him too much. Anyone who would acquire him would acquire him as a potential play. And so the Magic would expect a big return if they did trade him.
That is likely why discussions with the Dallas Mavericks fell apart when the Orlando Magic engaged them for Dennis Smith. The Mavericks asked for Mohamed Bamba or Jonathan Isaac in that deal and the Magic did not entertain that much further.
The Magic are going to give Bamba plenty of time to grow and develop. Fans might remain frustrated that he comes off the bench or that he might still have to earn that spot over a returning Vucevic.
But Bamba’s time will surely come. It is just a matter of when. And the Magic are willing to wait.
4. Nikola Vucevic (1 year, $12.8 million)
The biggest question facing the Orlando Magic at the trade deadline and entering the summer is what to do with their newly minted All-Star.
Much of Nikola Vucevic’s previous six years with the Magic has been asking when the Magic would replace him. Many players tried to claim that spot and Vucevic simply beat them all.
In this last year of his contract, Vucevic doubled down and did everything one better.
He is having a career year in every measure of the word, specifically averaging a career high in points (20.6) and rebounds (11.9). Not to mention he is one of the best passing big men in the entire league.
Vucevic earned his All-Star bid with his individual production and the team’s rise up the standings.
But Vucevic is still probably not part of the team’s future. The Magic are not likely going to be willing to overpay to retain him. After getting that sweetheart contract from him four years ago, Vucevic is due for a major pay raise likely above $20 million. And he should seek that raise, this might be his last big contract.
Is Orlando willing to pay that and for how long? The answer to that question might depend on how long the Magic think it will take Bamba to develop and assume that role.
There is no doubt right now too the Magic are a significantly worse team without Vucevic. But there is also little doubt the Magic have a low ceiling with Vucevic as their best player. The goal is not to fight merely for the scraps of the Playoffs.
Other teams around the leauge know and understand this too. They are likely thinking the same questions when it comes to Vucevic. Just how much do you pay and value this guy as a free agent? And with that beign the case, how much are you willing to give up to get his Bird Rights?
That leave sthe Magic likely stuck in the middle. It is hard to see them getting a deal that returns the kind of value they are looking for. And so, once again, the Vucevic questions is likely to get punted down the road.
3. Terrence Ross (1 year, $10.5 million)
No player on the Orlando Magic’s roster feels built for a trade deadline deal than Terrence Ross.
Ross is a bucket getter and someone who does not need a lot of space or time to score a lot of points. Every playoff team could use a player like Ross to space the floor and hoist shots off the bench.
It has helped this year that Ross has turned in a career season averaging 14.4 points per game and shooting 37.7 percent from beyond the arc. Ross is virtually the only consistent offensive option off the Magic’s bench, often accounting for three-quarters of the Magic’s scoring from non-starters.
Ross’ ability to fit into almost any offense is what makes him the most attractive on the trade market. Not to mention that expiring contract.
A team looking for a rental and looking to get off some money could not do much better than Ross as that replacement to get them over the hump and further into the Playoffs.
But it is this ability that still makes him valuable to the Magic. He is a hard worker, a good team defender and a consummate professional. His presence on this tam is good for the young players.
The question, again like Vucevic, comes down to price. How much are the Magic willing to pay to keep him this summer? That is a fairly open-ended question without a clear answer.
It feels like the Magic might be willing to keep him — again if the price is right. But what that price might be is uncertain. And more than Vucevic, Ross might blow past that.
If Orlando aims to make a splashy trade in one direction or the other at the deadline, bet that it will involve Ross.
2. Jonathan Isaac (3 years, $18.1 million)
Back at Summer League, Jonathan Isaac was the talk of the league for a few days. He and Mohamed Bamba combined to swat every shot in sight, closing down the lane and revealing the possibilities of a lineup that featured two players with unbelievable wingspan could do to defenses.
That felt very real. As did Isaac’s offensive production that week.
Granted, there were hints of flaws. He shot a poor percentage and turned the ball over a lot with the ball in his hands. Exactly how far Isaac’s game could go was still a complete mystery.
This year was not going to solve it after missing almost all of his real rookie season with a leg injury. By the time he came back, the season was over and the Magic just wanted him to dip his toe in the water and get his feet wet. This year would be his real rookie year.
And Isaac has looked like a rookie in a lot of ways. He has had his ups and downs. But the real goal with Isaac was progress.
The league is seeing that progress now as Isaac has started to come into his own, showing more aggression and confidence offensively that feed shis defensive prowess. If anything, the Magic need to give Isaac more opportunities to show himself off.
No one around the league is likely ready to give up on Isaac and what he one day might become. Maybe he is not a superstar, but the potential for an all-defensive team player who can hit open threes consistently is plenty present at the moment.
It is not all there yet. Isaac still struggles with his 3-point shot and generally playing consistently. He makes a ton of rookie mistakes still and his inexperience and eagerness sometimes betray his defensive abilities and length.
The Magic, as a still-rebuilding team, are in no position to trade away any young players like Isaac unless they are getting cost-controlled stars in return. That is not happening. Teams want Isaac but will not pay the price of a foundational player for it. The Magic are eager to watch him grow.
1. Aaron Gordon (4 years, $76 million)
In the run up to the NBA trade deadline, one name has fascinated the national media it seemed. It was not the obvious trade candidates in expiring contracts for Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross. It was Aaron Gordon.
Article after article asked the same question: What are the Magic going to do with Aaron Gordon?
Whether it was a media member questioning Aaron Gordon’s fit against the Jeff Weltman-drafted Mohamed Bamba and Jonathan Isaac or an anonymous scout saying Gordon was the guy teams were curious if they could pry free, Gordon was unexpected a name to watch at the deadline.
That feels ridiculous after Gordon signed a four-year, $76-million contract this summer. The front office obviously had some belief in him that they could make things work with the core they were building.
Then again, they signed Gordon to a contract that was front loaded. His contract becomes more valuable in the trade market as it ages, especially if Gordon continues to get better.
Gordon certainly seems to be trending in that direction. While his scoring is down (from 17.6 points per game to 15.8), his other stats seem to have increased or stayed the same from his breakout season last year. Gordon is shooting a more efficient 45.1 percent from the floor and 50.9 percent effective field goal percentage.
More impressively, Gordon has rounded out his game in other ways.
He is making better decisions on the ball rather than relying heavily on his isolation play. Unlike last year, fans seem to be begging Gordon to attack more. He is averaging a career-high 3.6 assists per game too.
Gordon is also making good on a preseason promise to be a better defender. The Magic trust him completely to defend the best player on the other team and he is a tough one at that.
Gordon’s scoring may still come. He is still just 23 years old.
That leaves a lot of promise and potential still to fill even five years into his career. The rest of the league clearly knows that. They would love to pry him free from the Magic. Orlando should be asking for a hefty price to do that.
And honestly, at this stage of the Magic’s progression, they should be holding onto Gordon as much as anyone else.