The NBA Draft process is already well underway. With the turn to June coming it is time to take a first look at how things might go down.
The NBA Draft is a little less than a month away. Things at the Amway Center are just as quiet regarding the draft process as they are for the coach process.
Eventually, the team will let everyone into its decision. The Orlando Magic will surely have a coach in place before the Draft to help make that draft decision and scheme for what he (or she) envisions for the team.
There is no underselling how important this pick is. With Jonathan Isaac and (likely) Aaron Gordon in place, the team has the beginnings of an intriguing young core. But the team has to add some more pieces to begin moving in a better direction.
This Draft is part of that foundation the team hopes to build. And, to be sure, the Magic will be putting that kind of pressure on this pick — as unfair as that might be.
That makes the Magic’s position at No. 6 all the more interesting. They will have the pick of some very good players. But each of those players will come with serious flaws and question marks. Orlando will set its course and establish its identity in the coming years with this upcoming pick in the middle of it all.
There is still a long way to go to the Draft. It will come quickly. And a lot will happen with the Magic as an organization in the meantime. All of it centering around this pick.
It is getting to be that time of year. Orlando will have players for workouts the rest of the month leading up to the June 21 Draft. while the bulk of the prep work for them is certainly done, there is still a lot of work left to do. These next few weeks are as important as any other.
But ultimately, like with the Lottery, the Magic are at the whims of other teams for the most part. They will be waiting to see what is left to them at No. 6. They surely have their wish list and have what they would like to see happen, but they will have a choice to make at No. 6 too.
What are those choices? It is time for an early run through our mock draft to get us there.
I should make myself perfectly clear here: I think Luka Doncic is the best player in this Draft. If the Orlando Magic had the No. 1 pick, they take Luka Doncic. I still think it is kind of insane that the league is not falling over itself to take Doncic.
But the NBA has weird logic sometimes. They fall in love with size still. Especially elite athletes.
This takes nothing away from Deandre Ayton. I like him a lot too. He and Doncic are far and away the best prospects in this Draft, to me.
The Phoenix Suns need a lot of everything. They need a point guard and they have a decent grouping of bigs. But Ayton seems like the guy that could tie it all together. Pairing him and Devin Booker together seems like the beginnings of something special. It does not feel like Phoenix is in love with Marquese Chriss anymore. And they like Josh Jackson as a building block — he had a nice end to his rookie season.
Ayton hits that traditional need for a center that teams still think they need. He is not the best defender, but he may fare better defensively in the NBA. He just has to improve his defensive instincts a bit more. Maybe that is something he cannot improve.
But teams have difficulty ignoring the mixture of size and strength.
There are still some rumors flying around that Luka Doncic may use his leverage playing in Europe to try to pick a more ideal place. Maybe that place is Phoenix. Maybe that place is with the Sacramento Kings. Or maybe it is neither. The teams at the top have to play that game of chicken.
It still seems like Doncic is determined to play in the NBA next year. And wherever he lands, he should make an immediate impact.
Doncic was the Euroleague MVP at 19 years old, averaging 16.1 points per game and 4.3 assists per game. This is a 19-year-old in the second-best league in the world playing at an incredibly high level. No amount of college stats should surpass what he has done.
Doncic has flaws. He does not have NBA athleticism. That is a concern. But he is still very crafty with the ball and knows how to exploit angles and attack the basket with an eye to passing. Doncic can still improve his shooting, but he has a complete and mature game.
Having him fall to second is a true gift for any team. And if teams get scared because he could opt to stay in Europe, they are missing out on a top prospect.
Mohamed Bamba measured with a whopping 7-foot-10 wingspan at the NBA Draft Combine. Everyone understood Bamba had incredible length. He displayed that in his lone year with the Texas Longhorns.
Bamba was a shot blocker –3.7 blocks per game — but also a good rebounder and big presence. But he was extremely raw. He floated to the perimeter too much and trusted his jump shot a little too much. His slight frame made it hard for him to establish post position.
He has a long way to go.
Judging by video of him in an empty gym shooting around, his jumper seems to have come a long way. And that makes him infinitely more valuable.
This is a guy who could become a potential game-changer on defense. And this high in the draft, teams need to be willing to take a swing on a high-upside prospect like him. He may not be an every-year All-Star, but he will make a team’s defense better instantly. And if his offensive game expands, he could be a whole lot more.
Personally, I am not particularly high on Marvin Bagley. There may not be a more gifted offensive player in this draft. He has a knack for scoring around the basket. And that is what his focus was with the Duke Blue Devils.
The scoring and athleticism he has with the ball are hard to ignore. He put up gaudy numbers. Someone will be sucked in by that. He will surely impress and put up good numbers when he reached the NBA too.
His defense though remains a problem. Duke had to go to a 2-3 zone for much of the year to hide him defensively. That is something Mike Krzyzewski always loathes doing.
Bagley is that special offensively that he went through with it. But that was at the college level. At the NBA level, things may be a different story.
Bagley does not have much of a game outside the paint. He has no developed 3-point shot. He will have to add that to his game to survive in the league. And his defense will remain a work in progress.
The scoring talent is there. A decade ago, Bagley would easily be in the conversation for the top pick in the NBA. But he and his skill set have quickly become a dinosaur in the league.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is one of the most promising and untapped prospects in the Draft. After Bamba, no one has the length and athleticism he has. He has a budding and developing offensive game too, showing the ability to work in the high post and step out and potentially hit threes.
It is all just very raw. He struggled to stay on the court with the Michigan State Spartans. That was perhaps his role, to be an overeager shot blocker. He blocked plenty of shots and showed plenty of that defensive potential. Jackson just needs some discipline.
But scouts are very high on his upside. They are very high on what he can become and his potential to continue growing. There is a lot to like about him.
It is just very poorly defined at the moment. In a way that Bamba is not. Teams like that unformed piece of clay. And in the right system, Jackson could easily turn into one of the better players in this draft.
In this situation, the Orlando Magic have plenty of options with the sixth pick. Trae Young, Michael Porter Jr. and Wendell Carter Jr. are the likely picks if the Draft plays out this way. Outside of Marvin Bagley III, the Magic would probably jump to take any of the five players I have coming before them.
But, for now, let’s analyze why I think Trae Young is the pick as of this moment.
This is not about need. This is not about marketing (although that plays a small factor).
Taking Young is about taking the best player available. Porter’s injury concerns me — back injuries do not go away — and he will have to prove himself. On top of that, he duplicates what the Magic already have and will invest in with Jonathan Isaac and Aaron Gordon.
Young is the player with the potential to hit his star ceiling most and can change the way the Magic play. Orlando, most of all, needs a clear impact player. Someone who can drive the engine for the team.
At the guard position, Orlando has lacked that nearly forever. Steve Francis and Anfernee Hardaway (and Tracy McGrady, if you count him as one) are the only guards in team history to average more than 20 points per game.
Aaron Gordon is growing into a better scorer. Evan Fournier is a solid scorer. But neither should be on the ball much. Both Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier have succeeded more off the ball with a dominant ball handler creating for them. Evan Fournier turned in his best season with Victor Oladipo carrying more of the creation burden. And Aaron Gordon was a lot better with Elfrid Payton in there setting him up.
Orlando needs a creator.
Young has plenty of questions about him. He still has to develop a stronger drive to his left hand, improve finishing at the rim and reduce his turnovers. How much of his turnover problems were born from his incredibly high usage rate is the big question.
But he is probably the best shooter in the Draft. He has the ability to warp defenses with his threat to shoot from anywhere on the floor and his superb passing ability. Young can drive a team and create a lot for them.
He has all the signs of someone who could be very special in this league. Especially this modern league.
He may not have the length or defensive ability that Jeff Weltman and John Hammond are known to like, but he is the best option at this pick. Someone who will give the Magic exactly what they need to take the team to its next step.
For some reason, Orlando Magic fans have taken to thinking Wendell Carter Jr. would be the worst pick for them. He is someone that does not seem to have a lot of star potential, but has a high floor that should make an impact.
Somehow, getting compared to Al Horford is a bad thing.
Carter may not end up as good as Horford. But he has the same kind of steady play about him. He will just do what his team asks him to do. That is what made him so successful with the Duke Blue Devils.
Carter blocks shots, defends and hits jumpers. What more do teams want from a modern center?
He may never be the true game-changing impact player. But whatever team gets him will get a solid player who will fit any role the team needs of him. That has a lot of value.
Where the Cleveland Cavaliers go might be determined on what LeBron James does.
Mikal Bridges is the perfect player for a team that is trying to build for a title. He is a good 3-point shooter and seemingly works better off the ball, spreading the floor. He will also provide high-level defense, likely pretty immediately.
Bridges is the perfect supporting player.
In the right situation and with the right development, Bridges could turn into something more. He slowly improved with the Villanova Wildcats and looked better as a primary scorer.
That is not his best role in the NBA though. That is why falling to the Cavaliers here would be a perfect fit for him (provided James stays).
If the New York Knicks are hoping for a big name, seeing the talented Michael Porter Jr. fall to them at No. 9 would be a good steal.
Before his back injury in the first game of the season, Porter was a potential selection with the top overall pick. There were a lot of people excited about what he could do. His back injury only leaves questions.
Porter is a supremely smooth and natural scorer. He has a lot of fluidity in his game and he looks natural looking for his own shot. Porter will be able to find a home in the NBA, especially if he can better develop his 3-point shot.
What will be really interesting is whether Porter can reach that ceiling.
The back injury seems to be the big question. Those rarely go away. And Porter will have to show his health before any team takes a chance on him. But the potential is clearly there.
Kevin Knox, a Tampa native, is getting some interesting draft buzz after an up-and-down season with the Kentucky Wildcats. He averaged 15.6 points per game but shot just 34.1 percent from beyond the arc. He is intriguing, to say the least. At minimum with his size and athleticism on top of everything.
Orlando Magic fans hunting for a point guard have already set their eyes on the super athletic and tall Shai Gilegous-Alexander. There is plenty of good reason for that — not just from his measurables. He is a player who really began to put things together late in the season.
Taking him at six is a bit high probably. He still has a lot of rough edges to his game. But there is a lot to like after he averaged 14.4 points per game and 5.1 assists per game while shooting 40.4 percent from beyond the arc. That suggests Gilgeous-Alexander could play off the ball some too. He just may not be the guy to take over the point guard role full time as a starter.
Collin Sexton was at one point strongly considered as a top-five prospect. He put up some incredible games, including a memorable 40-point game with his team down to three men for most of the second half. The Alabama Crimson Tide nearly won that game.
That kind of competitiveness goes a long way and leaves a deep impression. A midseason swoon though had him dropping. And his less-than-encouraging shooting percentage — 33.6 percent from beyond the arc — raise some questions.
But Sexton is a great leader and can attack the basket with reckless abandon. He has great end-to-end speed and can get to the basket any time. He will have to improve his passing to take his game to the next level.
Miles Bridges is a tweener in a bad way. It is not clear where he fits in the NBA. He is probably too small to play the 4 and not a good enough perimeter player to play the 3. And he is not a Draymond Green clone, so that kind of a role is likely out for him despite his athleticism.
These picks though represent something else interesting. Many people believe the LA Clippers may try to package the 12th and 13th picks to move up in the Draft. While I do not believe the Orlando Magic are looking to move off the sixth pick, if there is not a player they like there, they could easily be the team that takes that deal. Collecting Collin Sexton and a player like Lonnie Walker or Robert Williams would be a nice haul.
Just probably not what the Magic actually need from this Draft — namely foundational players.
Lonnie Walker is a solid scorer and a good defender. He has to improve his shot. But for a Denver Nuggets team that needs rangy defenders, Walker fits the bill. They have long seemed to have an infatuation with these kinds of wings.
Robert Williams is an undersized center at 6-foot-9 without much of an offensive game. But he is a strong defender. He averaged 2.6 blocks per game and added 9.2 rebounds per game. That made him a big impact player for the Texas A&M Aggies.
The only problem was that he did not significantly improve his statistics from his freshman to his sophomore year. There might be some thought he could be near his ceiling. That makes him a solid pick for a Playoff team in the mid-Lottery.
If the Orlando Magic are looking to trade back, Williams is maybe a player they could be looking to target. At those LA Clippers picks, he would be a good get to help bolster the team’s center prospects.
Anfernee Simons might be another player the Orlando Magic would like to target. It is not merely the fact Simons grew up in Orlando and is in fact named after Orlando Magic Hall of Fame member Anfernee Hardaway.
Simons has created some legend in his own right. He has Hardaway’s size at the point guard position. And the athleticism to boot.
He will have to improve his shooting and his passing. And skipping college is going to lead to questions about the competition he played. But Simons is a guy who could rise — or fall — based on his workouts. If he slipped late in the first round and the Magic pass on a point guard early, maybe the Magic look into moving up to get him.
Simons has a ton of upside and potential for a team patient enough to develop him.
Zhaire Smith is among the players everyone thinks can make an immediate impact for a Playoff team. Smith is already a strong defender who helped set a culture for the Texas Tech Red Raiders’ surprise run last year. He has to improve as a shooter and scorer at the NBA level after taking just 1.1 3-point attempts per game last year. Not helping him is he measured shorter than anticipated at the Combine.
This just seems like a perfect fit for the San Antonio Spurs. Keita Bates-Diop is a hard worker and a grinder who burst onto the scene with the Ohio State Buckeyes in his senior year. His 19.8 points per game and 8.7 rebounds per game were all heart and determination. Those players usually find a role somewhere.
Khyri Thomas can do one thing: shoot. Thomas hit on 41.1 percent of his 3-pointers last year and 40.6 percent for his three-year career with the Creighton Bluejays. Seeing if that translates will make or break his career.
Aaron Holiday has the name of his brothers Jrue Holiday and Justin Holiday. He has the talent and play to be an intriguing NBA player. What he lacks right now is discipline. He often tried to do too much in his lone year with the UCLA Bruins. Turnovers are a big question for him.
Troy Brown is already a good defender. But his scoring leaves a lot to be desired. He will have to prove he can find ways to score in the NBA, especially from the perimeter. Finding the right team for him will be the biggest key for his success.
The last two years for Chandler Hutchison has completely changed his outlook. He averaged 20.0 points per game last year and shot an efficient 52.8 percent effective field goal percentage. Hutchison will have to show he can hit 3-pointers. But he has already generated some buzz about his early workouts and, maybe, a first-round promise.
Mitchell Robinson was a McDonald’s All-American two years ago and someone everyone was high on. A suspension at Western Kentucky led him to leave the team eventually. No one has really seen him play for a year now. But Robinson is an athletic, shot-blocking big. He clearly has elite athleticism. He could easily climb draft boards as teams get a closer look at him.
Kevin Huerter was the most impressive player at the NBA Draft Combine to many scouts. He displayed some strong shooting ability. With the Maryland Terrapins, he averaged 14.8 points per game and shot 41.7 percent from beyond the arc. He may not have the biggest ceiling, but he is quickly improving and could easily fill a role as a late first-round pick.
Jacob Evans seems like a solid supporting player. He showed he could hit open 3-pointers in his time with the Cincinnati Bearcats and has a great build to be a strong defender for any team.
Dzanan Musa never really got off the bench for Cedevita in the Croatian League. That is typical for young players. But scouts like his shooting ability. He will have to quickly get up to speed when he comes to the NBA.
Donte DeVincenzo is the kind of grinder any team wants late in the first round. He can hit shots and is perfectly happy coming off the bench. His performance in the NCAA Tournament final really propelled his draft stock.
Jontay Porter is still a raw defender out of the post. But that seems to be the kind of players the Golden State Warriors like to draft — especially with the prospect of losing Kevon Looney in free agency and the need to get a little bit younger off the bench. Porter is a good shot blocker. But he will have to round out the rest of his game.
De’Anthony Melton is the long 6-foot-6 point guard teams make themselves fall in love with. This happens all the time. Melton is intriguing from a physical standpoint. A scandal involving an assistant with the USC Trojans forced Melton to sit out the entire year last year.
Melvin Frazier is a good defender. That will be his calling card in the NBA if he makes it. His offensive game is solid, but he will have to improve his shooting to play more off the ball.
Next: OMD Roundtable: Sixth is a Magic number
The Orlando Magic will also have the 35th and 41st pick in the Draft.