Throughout December as the Orlando Magic started to sink under the pressure of the injury to Franz Wagner and everything the team was missing, the hope was that Paolo Banchero's return would be a fix for everything.
Getting the team's do-everything forward would shift the gravity on the floor and unlock a Magic offense that struggled to do some very basic things. Banchero felt like he would be a cure-all.
His first game back against the Milwaukee Bucks felt like he picked up right where he left off, scoring 34 points and hitting five 3-pointers. It felt like a breath of fresh air. The Magic were right again.
Even with an expected step back in his second game back against the Philadelphia 76ers, Banchero hit the game-clinching shot late in the game. Banchero was back just two games in. Everyone could feel it.
"Obviously he does a little bit of everything," Anthony Black said after the Orlando Magic's win over the 76ers in his second game back. "He came back and had 20, 8 and 6. Obviously, the impact of the minute restrictions. He just makes the game a lot easier. There's a lot of focus on him. A lot of teams gameplan to stop him. He makes the game easier for his teammates, makes the right play. He hit a big shot for us and he was big in all areas."
That was the vision for Banchero. He would soak up attention, score against set defenses and put everything right. He would make everyone's job that much easier.
The road back for Banchero has not been as smooth as the first two games would suggest. He has faced constant double teams, his teammates have struggled to shoot and Banchero has often looked a step slow with his decisionmaking. All of that attention has led to Banchero falling into some of his worst habits.
The team itself has struggled as Bancheor has tried to find his footing and, in some ways, regain the swagger and intensity that turned him into one of the best yung players in the league. A lot of that comes down to his shot selection.
A slow return
The Orlando Magic have gone 7-14 in the 21 games since Paolo Banchero returned.
Since returning, Banchero is averaging 22.5 points per game but shooting only 41.2 percent from the floor and 28.8 percent from three. He is also averaging 6.6 rebounds per game and 4.7 assists per game.
His struggles have resuscitated longstanding criticisms of his game and sparked unnecessary debates comparing Paolo Banchero to his All-Star-level teammate, Franz Wagner.
Worse still, the Magic have a -9.8 net rating with Banchero on the floor since his return. That mark is only better than Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (-13.1) among rotation players. The Magic have just a 100.9 offensive rating with Banchero on the floor.
To say the least, the Magic must find a way to get Banchero back in rhythm and back to his pre-injury level if they want to make a playoff push and secure their spot for the Play-In or otherwise. They can see what it looks like when Banchero has big games like his 36 points against the Atlanta Hawks or the 41 he had in the loss to the Golden State Warriors.
There is no doubt what Banchero is capable of. How do the Magic bring that out more often?
"I think it has been a different type of flow in different games," coach Jamahl Mosley said before the Orlando Magic's loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. "I think his level and mindset is there. What he knows he needs to do and how he needs to play. The gravity in which he holds, I think being able to recognize that is the one piece that is continuing to be looked at. I think his mindset is right there where it needs to be. He knows exactly how teams are guarding him now so he is seeing more and more of it. He is stepping in that direction fully."
Shot selection concerns
It starts with fixing Paolo Banchero's shot selection or getting him the ball in easier places to score and make quick decisions.
Banchero has taken 134 mid-range jumpers this season at 38.8 percent shooting. That accounts for 25.8 percent of his shot diet.
Since returning from the injury, Banchero has taken 119 mid-range jumpers, more than any other shot in his shot diet, and made only 37.0 percent of those shots (he shot 8 for 15 on mid-range shots in the five games before his injury).
It would be one thing if this was only a small part of his game. But Banchero is not a good 3-point shooter—29.9 percent on 157 attempts this year and 28.8 percent on 128 attempts since returning from injury—and he has been less effective on his drives.
Banchero has made 64.6 percent of his 127 field goal attempts in the restricted area (4.7 attempts per game) and is averaging a career-high 8.1 free throw attempts per game. Since his return, Banchero is shooting 63.7 percent of his 91 field goal attempts in the restricted area (4.1 attempts per game). He has only 7.3 free throw attempts per game since returning.
Banchero is averaging 10.3 drives per game and is shooting 43.2 percent on drives according to data from Second Spectrum. Since returning from his injury, he is averaging 9.9 drives per game and shooting 44.0 percent on drives.
Last year Banchero took 335 mid-range field goal attempts, making 40.0 percent of his shots. He made 64.2 percent of his 419 field goal attempts in the restricted area. He took 5.2 attempts per game in the restricted area last year.
It should be abundantly clear that Banchero is driving less and settling for jumpers more. And that has undoubtedly hurt his production and efficiency.
Things have changed since the All-Star Break, at least a little.
Banchero is averaging 28.6 points per game, 6.4 rebounds per game and 4.2 assists per game. He is still struggling to shoot, making only 43.0 percent of his shots overall and 28.6 percent from three on 7.0 attempts per game.
A lot of that struggle is credited to his poor mid-range shooting once again.
He is shooting 6 for 22 on mid-range jumpers (27.3 percent) but he is getting to the basket more going 17 for 24 in the restricted area (70.8 percent) and even 13 for 26 in the paint outside the restricted area.
According to data from Second Spectrum, Banchero is averaging 9.0 drives per game and making 52.2 percent of his shots on drives. That is slightly down.
Orlando could do a lot more to get the ball to Banchero in places where he can have matchup advantages. Very clearly his settling for mid-range jumpers and his struggle to drive have decreased his efficiency.
It is clear Banchero is still working to find his groove again. The injury has jeopardized some of his best weapons as a driver.
It should be clear he is settling a bit too much. Just as it should be clear the Magic's lack of shooting has allowed defenses to overload against him and force him not to drive to the basket.
The Magic have seen Banchero find his rhythm on occasion. When Banchero is hitting those mid-range jumpers, he becomes an unstoppable force.
But the bread and butter for Banchero is on the attack and getting to the basket, forcing the defense to collapse on him. The offense stalls when he stays on the peirmeter and settles for mid-range jumpers. The Magic are missing one of their best downhill attacker.
The hope is that he continues to increase his driving and pressure on the paint and use his mid-range jumpers as a complement rather than a primary weapon as the season concludes.