Paolo Banchero’s season hinges on Orlando Magic’s Playoff run

Paolo Banchero has not had the season he hoped for but has held out because he is such a great playoff performer. Whether he likes it or not, his success is tied to the team's success.
Paolo Banchero has been a flashpoint for the Orlando Magic all season. As the All-Star Break begins, the attention is back on him to step up his game and impact winning the rest of the season.
Paolo Banchero has been a flashpoint for the Orlando Magic all season. As the All-Star Break begins, the attention is back on him to step up his game and impact winning the rest of the season. | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

Everyone needs to get away for a bit this All-Star Break. No one probably needs it more than Paolo Banchero.

The Orlando Magic's one-time All-Star forward has struggled to recapture that All-Star level consistently. He puts up the scoring numbers and draws the attention of a star. But his impact toward winning has become even more questionable.

If Banchero needs a chance to get away from basketball, put his toes in the sand and reset his focus for a critical stretch run, he should get it. Anything to help turn around an uneven season for the Magic's young star player.

All of the frustration and potential this Magic team has, and everything the team can still accomplish fall on Banchero.

Fair or not, whether he wants it or not, the Magic and their success depend on Banchero finding his groove the rest of the season.

The reality has been that Banchero has not been good enough. This team has not been good enough.

"I think we're in the Play-In," Banchero told reporters after Wednesday's loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. "We've got to try to find a way to get a better seed. I would say that's where we're at."

It is a sobering reality. A season that started with extremely high hopes has quickly become frustrating. And it all goes back to the team's star.

Paolo's frustrating season

Paolo Banchero has statistically put in a fine season, especially after struggling to open the season

He is averaging 21.3 points per game, down from last year's career high of 25.9 points per game. He is averaging a career-high 8.4 rebounds per game and has matched last year's assist average at 4.8 per game.

Banchero still draws the most attention on the team, getting double- and triple-teamed constantly. The obsession with Banchero and his efficiency are warranted because that attention opens up so much for everyone else.

Banchero's critics have often derided his lack of efficiency. But even there, Banchero has made some significant strides.

Banchero is shooting 45.4 percent from the floor, in line with his averages of the last three years. His 3-point shooting has settled at 30.2 percent. But he is shooting a career-best 55.9 percent true shooting percentage.

With the Magic having many more offensive weapons, Banchero has reduced his usage rate to 26.7 percent and is taking only 15.6 field goal attempts per game, both career lows.

Still, Paolo Banchero's efficiency is below average. His true shooting percentage is the fifth-worst among players who play 30 minutes per game with a usage rate of at least 25 percent (notably better than Alperen Sengun among 39 players who qualify).

For a player in his fifth year who signed a max contract -- with the Rose Rule language and a player option -- there are a lot of expectations to carry the team. That is where Banchero has struggled.

"It's not really about me," Banchero said in the locker room after Wednesday's game. "It's about the team and trying to find ways to win games and get as good a position as we can heading into the postseason."

Banchero is right to believe it is not all about him. There are plenty of other players on the Magic who need to play better. The team as a whole has not been consistent.

But everything starts with the star player. Banchero has not had the ability to take over games this year -- totalling only five games of 30 or more points in 43 games when he had 18 in 46 last year.

The impact on winning

And if the critics have been justified by one thing, it is that the Orlando Magic have not played better with Paolo Banchero on the floor.

For the season, Orlando has a -2.5 net rating with Banchero on the floor this season, the worst among all starters. The Magic's 113.0 offensive rating is not too far below the team's 113.6 average. But their 115.5 defensive rating is 1.5 points per 100 possessios worse than the overall average.

Worse still, the Magic have a +2.0 net rating with Banchero off the floor. Including a well-above-average 109.9 defensive rating, even if the offense goes into the tank without him on the floor, soaking up attention and getting into the paint.

Some context is certainly warranted.

Paolo Banchero strained his groin early in the season and Franz Wagner got hurt two games after his return. Banchero has put together better statistical games since giving him some time to recover.

In the 21 games since Dec. 29, Banchero is averaging 22.9 points per game, 8.7 rebounds per game and 5.2 assists per game with 47.4/37.8/76.7 shooting splits. He has a 57.8 percent true shooting percentage, that is 13th-worst among 36 players who play 30 minutes per game and have a usage rate greater than 25 percent, but it is better than Jalen Brunson and Jaylen Brown.

The difference is that it has not translated to wins and an impact on winning.

The Magic have a -4.2 net rating with Banchero on the floor during that time, nearly a point worse than the team's overall average. The team has a 111.3 offensive rating and a 115.4 defensive rating.

Orlando is much worse offensively -- 105.9 offensive rating -- with Banchero off the floor. The Magic are a better team with Banchero out there.

They just are not good enough.

Like everyone else, Banchero is hunting for answers.

"I think our record answers that question. I'm not going to harp on the problems and what I think is wrong with our offense," Banchero told reporters in the locker room after Wednesday's game. "I don't think anyone would say it's where it could be or should be. We have a lot of guys, and we've just got to be better."

The Magic have not been good enough

Quite simply, the Orlando Magic have not been good enough this season. Paolo Banchero has not been good enough this season. And he has let his critics win the day and set the narrative for his season.

Banchero had a strong finish last year after the All-Star Break -- averaging 29.0 points per game with a 58.3 percent true shooting percentage. The Magic even had a +4.8 net rating with Banchero on the floor after the break last year.

That turnaround is still possible.

Banchero, even in a down scoring year, can clearly soak up attention and put up numbers. There is a lot for the Magic to be pleased with in his season.

But ultimately a star player like Banchero is judged on his wins. The Magic are still fighting for their spot in the Playoffs. Their star is still fighting to prove he can lead them there.

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