Paolo Banchero was like all of us Saturday night watching his alma mater in the Final Four.
Duke had a 14-point lead late in the second half and saw it slowly crumble. Then a collection of misfortunes, mistakes and bad timing throughout the final minutes of the game, ending with Cooper Flagg fouling on the go-ahead possession to give Houston free throws for the lead.
In the end though, the game came down to the best player having a shot. The likely No. 1 overall pick in Cooper Flagg got to his spot and missed a solid look. The game turned on one shot. Duke's redemption came down to whether he made or missed a shot.
If any one of the many things that had to happen down the stretch happened in Duke's favor, the Blue Devils would be preparing to face the Florida Gators on Monday night.
That is how these high-pressure games go, though. The biggest games and the biggest moments are determined by the narrowest of margins. For many teams in the middle of the standings or competing for Playoff positioning, whether it is in the NBA or college, the difference in seeding comes down to how they perform in close games.
The Orlando Magic might very well only have control over the 7-seed entering the final week of the season because Anthony Davis hit a runner with three seconds left for the Dallas Mavericks to beat the Atlanta Hawks earlier this week.
With four games remaining and homecourt advantage in the 7/8 Play-In Game and the Southeast Division title on the line, it feels like a playoff series where a close game could swing things one way or the other. Everyone is just preparing for that moment or trying to avoid it.
This is a make-or-miss league, and quite literally games and seasons can get determined on these clutch moments and shots.
Clutch frustrations
The Orlando Magic know that all too well.
This season, the Magic are 18-17 in clutch situations but just 5-7 since the All-Star break.
There have been a lot of frustrating close losses too: The failure to call a timeout in the closing moments of the loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, the failed rebounds against the Golden State Warriors, the missed layup from Franz Wagner against the Toronto Raptors, the Ja'Kobe Walter basket in the rematch with the Raptors, Coby White's spurt that led the Chicago Bulls to a come-from-behind victory and Anthony Edwards outdueling Paolo Banchero in the loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
If Orlando merely flipped three of those games in the team's favor, it would be 41-37 and be close to clinching the 7-seed now instead of in a battle for it in the season's last week.
The Magic have had their share of heartbreaks throughout the season—the double overtime loss to the Miami Heat still looms especially large. Just as they have had their triumphs—hanging on to beat the Milwaukee Bucks after the All-Star break, the 25-point comeback over the Miami Heat, the Tristan da Silva shot over the Boston Celtics, Franz Wagner's triumphant three over the Los Angeles Lakers and the Cole Anthony shot to complete the comeback over the Brooklyn Nets.
The latest triumph came when Paolo Banchero found Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for a game-tying three and then hit the go-ahead basket to end the Cleveland Cavaliers' long win streak on the road.
This season may still come down to finding a shot at a key moment and flipping a game in their favor.
As is evidenced by the long list of games after the All-Star break, closing games has been a struggle for this team.
Offensive problems get worse
In the 12 games since the All-Star break that met clutch criteria—any game within five points in the final five minutes—the Orlando Magic have a -12.6 net rating with a 101.3 offensive rating and a 113.9 defensive rating.
It is no surprise that the Magic's offense hits a rut. In close games, the pace typically slows to a crawl as teams stretch possessions. The Magic typically play at this slow pace, but also predictably struggle at this slow pace.
What has been frustrating since the break is how much the defense lets go of the rope. For the season, Orlando has a 98.4 defensive rating in clutch situations. Orlando has leaned on its defense to keep games close and give them a chance for the majority of the season.
The Magic typically thrive on holding onto a lead for dear life rather than making up ground. But since the break, the Magic have struggled ot make up ground. It has been an issue of execution.
The good news then is the Magic have two players who can perform late.
Banchero has a solid history of making big shots throughout his young career. He leads the team with 68 points in clutch situations and shoots 46.8 percent from the floor and 20 for 28 (71.4 percent) from the foul line.
Wagner too is solid with 51 points. But he has shot only 35.7 percent in clutch situations.
Banchero is likely the one to finish games with the ball in his hands. But the Magic's star duo has 13 combined assists against 14 turnovers in clutch situations.
This is still an area the team must clean up. It will become important to close the season.
A close game could decide the 7-seed
With the big opponents on the way for the Orlando Magic, it feels like another one is coming—the two games against the Atlanta Hawks loom large. Both games could come down to a final possession.
Since the All-Star break, the Hawks are 4-7 in clutch situations but equally struggle offensively with a 102.9 offensive rating. The Boston Celtics are 6-2 and the Indiana Pacers 7-5 in clutch situations since the break.
With late-game situations, though, you can throw out those records and those stats. Each game is unique. And at the end of the day, it comes down to the ability to make a shot at the right moment or get a stop at the right moment.
It feels like the Magic have one more of those moments coming. And considering how tight the standings are, that moment could end up being huge.