Orlando Magic’s path forward gets tighter

The Orlando Magic still have two weeks remaining in their regular season and the postseason ahead. Even if the team climbs the tall mountain ahead to escape the Play-In (a mountain that has only gotten taller), this season will undoubtedly go down in franchise history as one of the most disappointing.

Injuries played a role in that. Orlando simply never saw its roster together and fully healthy for very long.

Even with that, the Magic clearly need to make some changes this offseason. They cannot stand still.

The frustrating part about this season is that the Magic already pushed a lot of chips in. And while a healthy roster would surely have meant the team is in a better position in the standings, the reality is that the Magic have limited options to adjust their team.

And that pressure from the salary cap is only growing as the offseason nears.

Last week, Shams Charania of ESPN reported the league told teams the salary cap for the 2027 season would likely be reduced by $1 million. The reason reported for the decreases is uncertainty about local TV deals around the league, as Main Street Sports, which operates the FanDuel Sports Network, is likely to file for bankruptcy and likely stop airing NBA games next season.

That is a relatively small amount when the salary cap is $165 million. But it could have major implications for a Magic team that is bumping right up against the first apron.

The Magic will be in the tax next season and are flirting with the first apron. And that is still with work to do to add to the roster. The Magic will be limited in the way they can attack this summer. And there is seemingly a lot of work to do.

The Magic's cap situation

President of basketball operations Jeff Weltman has been warning that the team's bill would come due for retaining and developing all of their young players.

While Weltman has plenty of draft misses, the Magic's roster is essentially all players he drafted and then extended. Add to that the move to acquire Desmond Bane, and the Magic are certainly over-committed in payroll. The team is well over the salary cap.

The move to trade Tyus Jones at the trade deadline for a few second-round picks was a pure cost-cutting move meant to get the team below the tax and delay the start of the team's repeater clock.

There is no avoiding the tax next year, especially if the Magic still want to stay on the path they are on.

According to the numbers from Spotrac, the Magic have $207.9 million guaranteed for next season. That includes waiving Jonathan Isaac and taking only the $8 million he is believed to be guaranteed for next season.

That $207.9 million leaves the team $1.1 million beneath the first apron and its restrictions under the current projections.

The Magic's payroll has suddenly ballooned because Paolo Banchero's max extension -- assumedly 25 percent of the cap in the first year -- kicks in next season. So does Wendell Carter's extension, going from $10.9 million this year to $18.1 million next year.

Orlando knew this day would come. And because the Magic are over the tax, they are very limited in what they can do in free agency.

Why the aprons matter

Everyone can clearly see the Orlando Magic have a lot of work to do to improve their team.

A coaching change seems inevitable at this point. That will reshape the roster and how they operate. But there are clearly a lot of roster holes to fill.

The team's depth was exposed by the multitude of injuries the Magic faced this season. There were simply too many players who seemed unprepared to step up in pressure situations. And the Magic were not able to maintain their defensive identity.

Rebuilding while improving the roster will now be difficult because the team is flirting with the apron.

The Magic will not be able to get into the free agent market without cutting significant payroll. Even a sign-and-trade would be tough because those require cap room to sign new players (it does not look like a normal trade).

The Magic will only have the taxpayer mid-level exception -- worth roughly $6.1 million -- to use this offseason. Using that would hard cap the Magic at the second apron.

They are not as restricted as they would be under the second apron -- which limits who the team can sign in free agency. They can still take on more salary in a trade so long as they do not go over the second apron.

The Magic have some room before that.

But as you can see, the Magic will essentially be able to sign their own free agents or sign someone to as much as a $6 million contract this offseason. Trades will be the big route for the Magic to improve dramatically.

Weltman's hold things steady approach

Jeff Weltman has shown he will swing for the fences when the time calls for it. The Desmond Bane trade was the team diving headfirst into this world. The Magic were not afraid to go for it when they felt they needed to.

The team will likely do so again if they sign Anthony Black to an extension this offseason. That signing could put them in the second apron.

And a season that disappointed this much is the kind of season that leads to bigger changes.

At a minimum, this offseason, Orlando will need to reshape a bench that ranks 27th in scoring. Injuries have hurt, pushing both Anthony Black and Tristan da Silva into the starting lineup more. But the team still lacks offensive force off the bench.

The Magic may need to face the critical question about their future at center with Wendell Carter, considering his athletic shortcomings, and Jalen Suggs, who has been inconsistent as a point guard even with some growth as a playmaker and has a long history of injuries that constantly slow him down.

It is a big offseason for the Magic, made only bigger by the disappointment the team has faced this season.

All the margins for the Magic are only getting tighter. And they will be extremely tight this season as they try to fix the mess of this season.