Maybe Orlando Magic fans should have known the signs since they had seen it before.
When a hard-driving Magic team is settling for threes and their star player is hoisting from three instead of trying to get to the basket, something has to be wrong.
That is who this Magic team is after all. They are a hard-driving team using their big, play-making forwards to get to the basket. So, when that is not happening, something is up.
That is at least what it felt like Oct. 30 in Chicago when Paolo Banchero was settling for jumpers through an icy fourth quarter where the Magic scored only 12 points. At the time, we wrote how important it was for the Magic to keep attacking.
It was only a day later that the team revealed Banchero had torn his right oblique, making it make sense why he was hovering around the perimeter.
After the Orlando Magic scored only 36 points in the paint against the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday, the second-fewest in the season (Orlando had only 38 in that loss to the Chicago Bulls), and Franz Wagner seemingly settled for jumpers, shooting only five shots in the restricted area and only two field goal attempts in the fourth quarter, maybe everyone should have sensed something was off.
Nobody knows exactly when it happened then. But it did. The same rare injury.
The Magic announced Saturday that Wagner will be out indefinitely with a torn right oblique, joining Banchero on the long-term injury report. Wagner will be reevaluated in four weeks, leaving the Magic in a weird space before Banchero's anticipated return in late December.
The Magic will have to reset themselves again, perhaps even completely changing the way that they play to make up for the loss of both star players. Certainly how they set up their shots completely changes as well as the shot distribution.
Franz Wagner's magnificent season
Franz Wagner has been simply magnificent since Paolo Banchero's injury, probably setting himself up for an All-Star spot.
Since Banchero's injury, Wagner is averaging 26.1 points per game, 6.0 rebounds per game and 6.3 assists per game. He maintained his efficiency, shooting 45.7 percent from the field and 30.7 percent from three. Wagner stepped into a starring role, controlling the game's tempo and creating the push for the offense.
Orlando's future seemed bleak when Banchero was out. But at least they still had Wagner. The team needed a week to find its footing but found its footing.
Orlando indeed more than survived, they thrived going 13-6 in the 19 games since Banchero's injury.
That should mean the season is not over. Orlando did not slip down the standings. The team remained in third in the East.
But this is a lot different. There is no Wagner to fall back on. The Magic do not have that dependable star-level player to anchor this team.
Where will the offense come from?
Only two other players—Jalen Suggs and Moe Wagner—are scoring in double figures since Paolo Banchero's injury. The Orlando Magic's offense has expectedly ground to a halt since Banchero's injury.
With Franz Wagner off the floor since Paolo Banchero's injury, the Magic have a team-worst 99.1 offensive rating. The Magic's most-used lineup without Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner—Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, Gary Harris, Jonathan Isaac, and Moe Wagner—has a -2.3 net rating with an 81.3 offensive rating in 45 minutes across 10 games.
That is the kind of struggle the Magic are facing offensively. They cannot play the same way with one player dominating the ball and trying to force his way downhill. That is not going to work. They have to find a new way to create pressure and tension.
This is a brand new team at least until Banchero returns. They have to find a new way to play.
It means Jalen Suggs will have the ball in his hands a lot more. Orlando will lean on him to create a lot more and help spread the ball around.
It means Wendell Carter needs to rediscover his offense. Orlando needs a different way to attack and using his post-up game and getting him in the paint or floating at the free throw line will do more to break the defense.
It means Anthony Black has to find some consistency and be a better downhill attacker. And it means Moe Wagner has to be even better off the bench with his scoring production.
It means role players like Goga Bitadze and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have to be more efficient in those roles. Bitadze has to be a monster on the glass and scavenging for offensive rebounds. The Magic need Caldwell-Pope to be an efficient shooter. They have to find points wherever they can get them. There is no margin for error.
But this also means the Magic need to see Tristan da Silva and Jett Howard provide critical performances. The two young players will be pushed to the front and thrown into the deep end, so to speak.
It will be by committee as coach Jamahl Mosley likes to say. The Magic need to find their way every night. If this team is truly like the Heart and Hustle team as everyone claimed, they will find a way through effort every night.
Leaning on their identity and cushion
As much as the Orlando Magic have to reset their offense, this period will mean the Magic have to lean even more on their defense. For Orlando to win, the team has to lean even more into its elite defense.
Orlando is still third in the league in defensive rating giving up 105.5 points per 100 possessions. Even though Wagner is one of the best defenders on the team, the Magic can still be a solid defensive team. And that will keep the Magic in a lot of games. It must keep Magic in a lot of these games with all the firepower sitting on the bench injured.
It is going to be an uphill climb without a doubt. And the Magic may be trying to hold on and stay afloat until Banchero returns and gets up to speed.
Fortunately, Orlando has given itself a cushion. The Orlando Magic are sitting in third in the Eastern Conference and lead the 7-seed Miami Heat by 3.5 games and the 11-seed Detroit Pistons by 6.5 games. Going even .500 until the end of the month would leave Orlando at 20-14 and still in position to make the playoffs and achieve all of their goals.
Staying level at .500 would be a victory for the Magic. It would mean they still have something to build on for when Banchero returns.
It felt like Orlando needed to hold the boat steady after Banchero's injury. Now it feels like they will do so under choppier waters for the next month. There is at least the treat of Banchero's return on the near horizon.
But like when Banchero went out, the season is not over. Wagner's season is not over. He should return likely in mid- or late-January. There will be plenty of time to get the team going again and make a playoff push.
All of the team's goals remain in front of them.
But like they did on Halloween, the Magic are starting from square one. They have to figure themselves out again. And this time it will be harder to take that important next step.