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Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Orlando | Oklahoma City | |
|---|---|---|
100.6 | Pace | 101.0 |
113.9 | Off. Rtg. | 117.9 |
114.3 | Def. Rtg. | 105.8 |
52.8 | eFG% | 56.4 |
31.3 | O.Reb.% | 25.1 |
13.7 | TO% | 12.1 |
30.5 | FTR | 27.2 |
1. Paolo, the All-Star?
Chet Holmgren is an All-Star for the first time, averaging 17.7 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game. He has been a game-changing interior presence on the league's best defense. Holmgren has been great.
It has been easy to play some sliding doors with Holmgren, now a champion and a key piece of a championship team. Paolo Banchero has not been so universally praised. That is the cost of being the number one guy on a developing team rather than a supporting player around an MVP.
But let's be clear about one thing: Paolo Banchero is returning to All-Star form. He could be an option to replace Giannis Antetokounmpo on the East All-Star team, even if that seems unlikely because of the Orlando Magic's record.
Banchero was the right pick for the Magic, even if there is still work to do to make him the best player he can be.
Banchero is averaging 21.7 points per game and a career-high 8.8 rebounds per game. Despite his 30.2 percent shooting from three, he is shooting a career-best 46.2 percent from the floor and a career-best 56.5 percent true shooting percentage.
In his last 16 games, Banchero averaged 24.4 points per game, 9.6 rebounds per game and 5.5 assists per game with 49.8/40.7/77.2 shooting splits. That is a 59.8 percent true shooting percentage.
Orlando is 7-9 in those 16 games. There is still work to do. But Banchero is looking more like the central star the Magic know he can be.
2. The one weakness in the Thunder?
The Oklahoma City Thunder do not have many weaknesses. There is a reason they are the clear-cut favorites to win the title.
But there is one area where the Thunder are weak. This is not a strong rebounding team.
Oklahoma City is 13th in defensive rebound rate at 69.5 percent and 30th in offensive rebound rate at 25.1 percent. They are 26th in second-chance points per game at 13.1 per game and eighth in opponent second-chance points per game at 14.2 points allowed per game.
This is a weakness the Orlando Magic might be able to exploit.
Orlando still has the perception of a weak rebounding team. The team will give up its share of offensive rebounds and there is still some inconsistency, but during the life of the season, the Magic have been one of the best rebounding teams in the league.
Orlando is fourth in the league in defensive rebound rate at 71.7 percent and 11th in offensive rebound rate at 31.3 percent. The Magic are 14th in second-chance points at 15.2 points per game and give up the fewest second-chance points at 13.4 points per game.
It is attacking the offensive glass that the Magic have been most inconsistent with in their rebounding of late. They were among the top teams at getting offensive boards. And converting those chances will be vital to keeping up with a Thunder team that is difficult to beat.
3. Looming Deadline
Tuesday's game against the Oklahoma City Thunder marks the Orlando Magic's last game before the trade deadilne.
It is expected that the Magic will be active to get under the tax. Many of the rumors surrounding the team have focused on the team finding some place to park Tyus Jones, dipping the team more than $1 million beneath the tax.
Jones has simply not worked out. He has shot a career-worst from three, and that was a big thing the Magic hoped would cover up for his defensive shortcomings.
The question is whether that will be the last thing the Magic do. Orlando could use a boost to the team's bench. The Magic have potential rotation players in Jonathan Isaac and Goga Bitadze that could have some value on the market.
The Magic always work quietly. It is not clear if the team is aggressive on the market looking to help boost the team or if they simply believe health will fix their problems (Franz Wagner will return eventually).
This should be the last time we see this team as constructed.
Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Franz Wagner - OUT (Left High Ankle Sprain Injury Management)
- Colin Castleton - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - QUESTIONABLE (Right Index Finger Sprain)
- Jalen Williams - OUT (Right Hamstring Strain)
- Chet Holmgren - QUESTIONABLE (Low Back Spasms)
- Alex Caruso - DOUBTFUL (Right Adductor Strain)
- Isaiah Hartenstein - QUESTIONABLE (Right Soleus Injury Management)
- Ajay Mitchell - OUT (Abdominal Strain)
- Jaylin Williams - QUESTIONABLE (Left Shoulder Contusion)
- Nikola Topic - OUT (Surgical Recovery)
- Thomas Sorber - OUT (Right ACL Surgical Recovery)
Projected Starting Lineups
Orlando | Oklahoma City | |
|---|---|---|
Jalen Suggs | PG | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
Desmond Bane | SG | Cason Wallace |
Anthony Black | SF | Luguentz Dort |
Paolo Banchero | PF | Chet Holmgren |
Wendell Carter | C | Isaiah Hartenstein |
Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder: Prediction
Our Record: 27-21/20-28 ATS
The Oklahoma City Thunder at full strength are a juggernaut. They are good at everything and there are very few holes in this balloon to pick at.
But to the extent the Thunder are letting out some air, they are showing some weaknesses. They have lost three of their last five games, including home losses to the Indiana Pacers and Toronto Raptors. Of course, they beat the Denver Nuggets on the road this weekend.
That might explain the heavier injury report. The Oklahoma City Thunder travel to San Antonio to play the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday. There is at least a chance the Thunder are going to rest a few players with these nagging injuries to prepare for that much bigger game.
Maybe that means Orlando catches Oklahoma City looking ahead.
The Magic were clearly unhappy with how they played Sunday in San Antonio. They practiced Monday, a rarity for the day after a game, especially on the road. Orlando is still trending back in the right direction.
That might create the situation for the Magic to score an upset. But it is still tough to pick against the Thunder.