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- Season Series: Tonight in Orlando; Feb. 11 in Orlando; March 8 in Milwaukee
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Milwaukee | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
98.6 | Pace | 100.8 |
113.0 | Off. Rtg. | 113.4 |
116.6 | Def. Rtg. | 114.1 |
56.7 | eFG% | 52.7 |
25.8 | O.Reb.% | 30.9 |
14.5 | TO% | 13.8 |
23.1 | FTR | 30.6 |
1. Franz and the starting lineup
The Orlando Magic are starting to gear up. Franz Wagner was upgraded to QUESTIONABLE on the team's injury report on Sunday and was made AVAILABLE on Monday morning. He will return for the first time in nine games and after missing 25 of the last 27 games.
That is certainly a welcome sign. The Magic's main trio of Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs played only 97 minutes and six games togehter last year. This year, they have played only 136 minutes in 11 games.
The results of those limited minutes could not be clearer. This year, the Magic's main trio has a +16.7 net rating with a 121.3 offensive rating and a 104.6 defensive rating.
Orlando's opening night starting lineup, which has played only 117 minutes together this season, has a +18.0 net rating with a 122.6 offensive rating and a 104.6 defensive rating. It is the fifth-best lineup in the league that has played at least 100 minutes together.
Of the Magic's 10-most used lineups, six have positive net ratings and three include Wagner and the two that are not the starting lineup have net ratings of greater than 30 points per 100 possessions.
It is hard to say what this team is. But Wagner should make them better. Once he gets back up to speed.
2. Life without Giannis
Like the Orlando Magic eager to get Franz Wagner back, the Milwaukee Bucks are trying to figure out life without Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Bucks have a +6.1 net rating with Antetokounmpo on the floor (120.8 offensive rating/114.7 defensive rating). They have a team-worst -9.0 net rating (107.2 offensive rating/116.3 defensive rating) when he is off the floor. That is a stark difference.
Since Antetokounmpo left the lineup with a calf injury, the Bucks have found a little bit of life. They are 3-3, and on a three-game winning streak, with a 115.5 offensive rating and a 120.2 defensive rating.
Clearly getting some offensive push -- and the addition of Cam Thomas should help -- has given Milwaukee some life. And this is a capable three-point shooting team that can spread the floor and drive teams crazy defensively.
But do not get too excited about the three-game win streak, though. It has come with victories over the Chicago Bulls, New Orleans Pelicans and Indiana Pacers. But Milwaukee is finding its way.
3. The foul line
The Orlando Magic's best offensive tool for much of the last four years has been the ability to get to the foul line. Orlando is still at its best and its healthiest when it gets to the foul line.
That is something that the Magic get added with Franz Wagner returning. But a lot of it has to do with the aggression to get downhill coming from Paolo Banchero and even Desmond Bane.
Orlando is still second in the league in free throw rate at 30.6 free throw attempts per 100 field goal attempts. But the Magic's ability has been wildly inconsistent too.
Orlando has taken 25 free throw attempts in just 10 of the last 15 games. That is a big key to the team getting offense and having an aggressive mindset. The Magic have to get to the line.
The Bucks are a team that does not get to the line very much and they are 23rd in the league, giving up a 28.0 percent free throw rate.
The Magic's aggression depends on their ability to get to the line -- as does their attention to detail.
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Milwaukee Bucks Injury Report
- Giannis Antetokounmpo - OUT (Right Calf Strain)
- Taurean Prince - OUT (Neck Surgery)
- Alex Antetokounmpo - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Franz Wagner - AVAILABLE (Left High Ankle Sprain Management)
- Colin Castleton - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Starting Lineups
Milwaukee | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
Ryan Rollins | PG | Jalen Suggs |
Kevin Porter Jr. | SG | Desmond Bane |
A.J. Green | SF | Franz Wagner |
Jericho Sims | PF | Paolo Banchero |
Myles Turner | C | Wendell Carter |
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Prediction
Our Record: 30-21/21-30 ATS
It is hard to say the Orlando Magic are back after their shaky win over the Utah Jazz. The team lost a lot of its defensive discipline that it seemed to gain from the win over the Brooklyn Nets.
Really, it seemed the Magic feasted in confidence over a bad Nets team. The Jazz were a much stiffer challenge and then tanked the fourth quarter.
Give Orlando the credit for finding the energy and making plays down the stretch to win that game. Coming back from 17 down is no easy feat, regardless of the quality of the opponent. But it still left a lot to be desired for the Magic.
Will that be a lesson learned?
The Milwuakee Bucks are a little bit of a middle road between the extremes the Orlando Magic saw in their last two games.
There is no defined star on Milwaukee, but this is a team that understands its purpose and what it is trying to do. The Bucks are capable of burning teams from deep if they are sloppy and they play two rim protectors in their starting lineup now with Jericho Sims joining Myles Turner.
This game will require the Magic to be solid in their execution.
Franz Wagner's return will add another wrinkle. How up to speed will Wagner be and how clunky will things look with him in there? Or will he be the energy boost the team needs to fly past an overmatched Bucks team?
Orlando is still inconsistent enough to drop these games. But the team has more than enough if it is sharp to win running away.