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- Tickets: $37-$426+ on StubHub
- Season Series: Magic 125, Heat 121 in Orlando on Oct. 22; Tonight in Orlando; Dec. 9 in Orlando (NBA Cup Quarterfinal); Jan. 28 in Miami; March 14 in Miami
Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Miami | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
105.8 | Pace | 101.5 |
116.1 | Off. Rtg. | 116.7 |
111.5 | Def. Rtg. | 112.2 |
55.1 | eFG% | 54.0 |
28.0 | O.Reb.% | 33.2 |
13.5 | TO% | 14.4 |
27.3 | FTR | 34.4 |
1. Paolo Banchero returns
The big story for the game is already written, we just need to know what the result is.
This is Paolo Banchero's return game after he missed the last 10 games with a strained left groin. Expectations should be tempered after missing the last three weeks. But the Magic should benefit greatly from Banchero's presence.
Despite any criticisms sent his way, Banchero was putting together a really strong season before his injury hit. He averaged 23.5 points, 9.2 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game in the six games leading up to the game he got injured in New York. He showed a lot more patience and ability to break defenses down.
Banchero should still be a battering ram getting to the paint. Orlando just hopes he is able to pick up where he left off.
That will be tough against a Miami Heat team that has found its footing on defense.
In the opener, Banchero had 24 points and 11 rebounds but on 7-for-17 shooting. According to NBA.com's tracking stats, Paolo Banchero had only three points on 1-for-3 shooting with Bam Adebayo as his primary matchup.
2. Shift in pace
After the opening night game, Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra joked that this was a different kind of Orlando Magic and Miami Heat game. Both teams were focused more on pushing the pace and trying to extract more possessions from the game. They were both reframing what offense meant to them.
Orlando has turned into one of the best transition teams in the league. But the Heat have gone into complete overdrive.
They lead the league with 105.8 possessions per 48 minutes. They are second with 19.2 fast break points per game.
This is a game that will be all about who can control the tempo and not get too frantic. The Magic play at fewer possesisons but are equally as dangerous in transition.
On the other side then, the Magic are 21st giving up 16.0 fast break points per game and the Heat are 14th giving up 15.3 per game.
Whichever team plays at the tempo they want and controls the flow of the game could easily win.
3. To the line
The easiest way to control tempo? Slow the game to a stop at the foul line.
This has been the Orlando Magic's biggest strength as they are a team that tries to pummel everyone in the paint and at the rim as much as possible. Orlando is first in the league with a 34.3 percent free-throw rate and leads the league with more than 30 free-throw attempts per game (the only team with more than 30 per game).
One of the big reasons the Orlando Magic lost in Wednesday's game to the San Antonio Spurs is that they took a season-low 19 free throw attempts. Getting to the line is essential to the Magic's potential for success.
The Magic will have their work cut out for them. The Heat are one of the best teams at defending without fouling. Miami gives up a 24.8 percent free throw rate, the third-best in the league.
Orlando will need to keep pressure on the rim.
Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Tyler Herro - DOUBTFUL (Right Big Toe Irritation)
- Norman Powell - AVAILABLE (Left Ankle Sprain)
- Andrew Wiggins - AVIALABLE (Left Hip Flexor Sprain)
- Jaime Jaquez - AVAILABLE (Right Groin Strain)
- Nikola Jovic - AVAILABLE (Right Hip Impingement)
- Terry Rozier - OUT (Not With Team)
- Pelle Larson - AVAILABLE (Right Toe Strain)
- Kasparas Jakucionis - OUT (G-League On Assignment)
- Keshad Johnson - AVAILABLE (Head Illness)
- Vladislav Goldin - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Myron Gardner - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Paolo Banchero - AVAILABLE (Left Groin Strain)
- Franz Wagner - AVAILABLE (Face Mask)
- Moe Wagner - OUT (Left Knee Injury Recovery)
- Orlando Robinson - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Jamal Cain - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Colin Castleton - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Starting Lineups
Miami | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
Davion Mitchell | PG | Jalen Suggs |
Norman Powell | SG | Desmond Bane |
Pelle Larson | SF | Franz Wagner |
Andrew Wiggins | PF | Tristan da Silva |
Bam Adebayo | C | Wendell Carter |
Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat: Prediction
Our Record: 13-9/11-11 ATS
The Miami Heat have been considered a huge offensive juggernaut this season. Their pace has astounded everyone.
And the Orlando Magic will need to be careful not to get sucked into an up-and-down, back-and-forth game. The team that controls the tempo and pace is going to be the team that wins.
But the Miami Heat have slowed down a bit. They are averaging 119.0 points per game in their last five games, but hit more than 110 just twice in that span. The Heat are not quite slowing down. But they may be hitting a rut.
Just look at that injury report for some proof. Their guys are playing through a lot right now.
Miami's size will be a challenge to navigate. The Heat are one of the few teams with the kind of versatility that can bother the Magic.
But coming off Wednesday's game and with the emotion of Paolo Banchero's return, it feels like the Magic are ripe for a bounceback game. They are at least talking like that is coming.
But the Magic and Heat are not going to be separated by much. And these games are virtual coin flips.