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Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Orlando | Indiana | |
|---|---|---|
100.9 | Pace | 101.2 |
114.9 | Off. Rtg. | 108.1 |
113.5 | Def. Rtg. | 117.2 |
52.9 | eFG% | 50.3 |
32.2 | O.Reb.% | 28.9 |
13.6 | TO% | 13.8 |
32.3 | FTR | 28.3 |
1. Offensive Droughts
The story for the Orlando Magic in the wake of their one-point loss to the Toronto Raptors on Monday was the epic collapse the team had, losing a 21-point second-quarter lead and a 10-point lead with 7:40 to play.
It is not even that the Magic lost the lead. It is that the Magic went five minutes without scoring and had only two field goals in those final 7:40. It was a minor miracle that the Magic stayed within striking range to win the game and had a shot to win at the end.
This, unfortunately has been par for the course recently.
The Orlando Magic gave up a 22-3 run in the second quarter of the loss to the Denver Nuggets, turning a spirited Magic effort into a virtual blowout. They then gave up a 27-6 run from the end of the third quarter to the start of the fourth quarter against the Golden State Warriors.
The team has had some major droughts that have cost them. Monday was not an isolated incident.
2. Fast break problems
The Orlando Magic expected, perhaps, to have some issues dealing with fast breaks against the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors are constantly looking to push the tempo and get out in the break. Their 30 fast-break points were the most the Magic gave up all season.
The three most fast-break points the Magic have given up this season have occurred in December. Orlando is struggling in transition right now and it is a major way teams try to crack the team's defense.
That is a mix of their offense, missing shots at the rim and a lack of defensive focus. Orlando has to tighten this up to get back on track and stop giving away free points. Defense should still be the team's strength.
The Magic are 22nd in the league, giving up 16.4 fastbreak points per game. In December, they are slightly better at 15.7 fastbreak points allowed per game.
The Indiana Pacers have the reputation of being a fast-break team because of Tyrese Haliburton (obviously still OUT). Indiana is 22nd with just 14.0 fast-break points per game. The Magic need to keep the Pacers in the half-court to win.
3. The Jalen Suggs Effect
The Orlando Magic upgraded Jalen Suggs to QUESTIONABLE after spending most games this past week listed as DOUBTFUL. Suggs has missed the last seven games with a left hip contusion -- and likely other various injuries.
Orlando may have finally reached its limit in how poorly its defense can play. The team needs him back.
Suggs' effect on every aspect of the Magic is real. It is backed up by the statistics too.
Orlando has a +9.6 net rating (116.3 offensive rating/106.8 defensive rating) with Suggs on the floor, the best mark of any player on the team.
The defense is obviously the biggest impact area and the one where Suggs will help the most.
Orlando has a 118.9 defensive rating since Suggs' injury. That is a far cry from the standard the Magic have set for themselves. If Suggs can help set that right, he will be super valuable to this team.
Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Franz Wagner - OUT (Left High Ankle Sprain)
- Desmond Bane - QUESTIONABLE (Back Spasms)
- Jalen Suggs - QUESTIONABLE (Left Hip Contusion)
- Moe Wagner - OUT (Left Knee Injury Recovery)
- Jonathan Isaac - QUESTIONABLE (Sore Left Knee)
- Colin Castleton - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Indiana Pacers Injury Report
- Tyrese Haliburton - OUT (Right Achilles Tendon Tear)
- TJ McConnell - PROBABLE (Right Hamstring Soreness)
- Obi Toppin - OUT (Right Foot Stress Fracture)
- Ben Sheppard - QUESTIONABLE (Left Calf Strain)
- Isaiah Jackson - OUT (Concussion)
Projected Starting Lineup
Orlando | Indiana | |
|---|---|---|
Tyus Jones | PG | Andrew Nembhard |
Desmond Bane | SG | Bennedict Mathurin |
Anthony Black | SF | Johnny Furphy |
Paolo Banchero | PF | Pascal Siakam |
Wendell Carter | C | Jay Huff |
Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers: Prediction
Our Record: 19-14/14-19 ATS
The Indiana Pacers are struggling right now. They are on a nine-game losing streak with only three games decided by fewer than 10 points. The Pacers bleed points on defense. And while they still score and have a clear All-Star candidate in Pascal Siakam, this is a team with a lot of holes to poke at.
The Orlando Magic are not playing well enough right now -- a -5.3 net rating (112.8 offensive rating/118.1 defensive rating) in their last nine games -- to count anything as given.
The Magic have certainly been good enough to win even many of the games they have lost. But they have these massive slips. This game is more about the Magic playing their brand of basketball and their style than any concern over what the Pacers might do.
Indiana may not be a team that can completely take advantage of Orlando's struggles. But there is still a lot of talent in the starting group to worry about. Close games always end up as toss-ups.
If the Magic get Jalen Suggs back, this should turn into a win just on his defensive energy alone. If Paolo Banchero builds on a strong effort against the Toronto Raptors, the Magic should win. If Anthony Black continues his hot play, the Magic have a good chance.
But this game really comes down to the Magic putting in the right defensive effort and controlling the glass. If they do those things, they should end 2025 the way they hoped.