- How To Watch: FanDuel Sports Network Florida (Orlando); Space City Home Network (Houston); NBA League Pass
- STREAM MAGIC-ROCKETS ON FUBO TV
- How to Listen: WYGM 96.9 FM/740AM (Orlando), 790 AM / S: 93.3 FM (Houston), NBA Audio League Pass, SiriusXM Channel 213 (Magic)
- FOLLOW LIVE: @OMAGICDAILY
- Tickets: $54-$501+ on StubHub
- Season Series: Rockets 97, Magic 84 in Houston on March 10; Tonight in Orlando
Houston Rockets vs. Orlando Magic: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Houston | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
99.0 | Pace | 96.7 |
114.2 | Off. Rtg. | 107.8 |
109.6 | Def. Rtg. | 109.3 |
51.7 | eFG% | 50.4 |
36.6 | O.Reb.% | 30.1 |
14.1 | TO% | 14.8 |
24.4 | FTR | 27.6 |
3. The rebounding downturn
When the Orlando Magic faced the Houston Rockets last week, the big takeaway was the rebounding. The Rockets collected 20 offensive rebounds and 19 second-chance points. The Magic scored more second-chance points and had 13 offensive rebounds in the game, but the rebounding was dispiriting and affected every other aspect of the game.
The Rockets lead the league in offensive rebound rate and lead the league with 18.0 second-chance points per game. This is where the game will turn.
For the season, Orlando is a good rebounding team. The Magic are sixth in the league with a 72.2 percent defensive rebound rate and give up the fewest second-chance points per game in the league at 11.5 per game. This should be a matchup of strength on strength.
But since the All-Star break, the Magic are 25th in the league with a 67.9 percent defensive rebound rate. That has led to a drop to 14th since the break giving up 14.3 second-chance points per game.
Rebounding will decide a lot of the game.
2. Franz's odd slump
For the longest time, the arguments for Franz Wagner were all about his efficiency. That is still the biggest argument for him. Even as his usage increased—and his 3-point shot continued to struggle—Wagner was still an advanced stats and efficiency darling. This season, he is shooting a career-worst 46.3 percent. But that is still good for a high-usage player like him.
Wagner is averaging a career-high 24.3 points per game. But he is going through an odd shooting slump.
On the team's five-game road trip, he averaged 19.6 points per game and shot 43.0 percent from the floor and 3 for 16 (18.8 percent) from three. Wagner was uncharacteristically struggling with his flip shots and floaters too. Against the Houston Rockets, he went 6 for 17 and he shot 4 for 16 in the loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
So much of the Magic's formula is based on scoring from Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Getting him right is essential to the team's success.
1. Out on the break
Tied at least somewhat to the Orlando Magic's rebounding question is what they do after they get the rebound.
It is no secret the Magic play at one of the slowest paces in the league in terms of possessions per 48 minutes. Watching them operate on offense can be just as much of a slog as they struggle to get into and run their sets and reads quickly. The Magic are better when they play with more energy, confidence and aggression.
They also need as many easy points as they can get. And that has often been a struggle for the team. It is an emphasis for them to get out in transition and try to score more fast break points. Against a tough defense like the Houston Rockets' defense, the Orlando Magic need those easy points.
This season, Orlando is 24th in the league with 13.8 fast break points per game despite all the turnovers and their general rebounding prowess. The team is not getting out in transition quickly.
Since the All-Star break, the Magic are 19th in the league with 14.5 fast-break points per game. That is a slight improvement but hardly the increased focus they are trying to make to create some easier offense.
Houston Rockets vs. Orlando Magic: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Houston Rockets Injury Report
- Amen Thompson - OUT (Left Ankle Sprain)
- Reed Sheppard - OUT (Right Thumb Avulsion Fracture)
- David Roddy - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Jack McVeigh - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- N'Faly Dante - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Jalen Suggs - OUT (Left Knee Trochlea Cartilage Tear)
- Cole Anthony - QUESTIONABLE (Left Big Toe Strain)
- Moe Wagner - OUT (Left Knee Torn ACL)
- Ethan Thompson - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Lineups
Houston | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
Fred VanVleet | PG | Cory Joseph |
Jalen Green | SG | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope |
Dillon Brooks | SF | Franz Wagner |
Tari Eason | PF | Paolo Banchero |
Alperen Sengun | C | Wendell Carter |
Houston Rockets vs. Orlando Magic: Prediction
Our Record: 37-32/33-36 ATS
The Orlando Magic have been playing better recently. They are having more consistent showings and their defense is starting to sharpen up. The vibes are good again after a 3-2 road trip and there is a lot of wind under their sails after they upset the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday.
Confidence should be flowing.
But that is the question, isn't it? The Orlando Magic got a big win but have repeatedly failed to back that win up with another big win—it happened after they snapped their five-game game losing streak against the Milwaukee Bucks with a loss to the Houston Rockets.
If the Magic are going to right the ship, it is going to start with picking up consecutive wins—something the team has not done since the first game after the All-Star break. Orlando is still looking for that breakthrough.
Is it tonight?
The Houston Rockets are on a six-game win streak but had a scare in their overtime win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday. They are a powerful team and can be good on both ends. Going on the road against an inspired and confident Magic team might be enough to break their streak.
Orlando needs this one more than Houston does.