As the Orlando Magic look for answers to try to climb back into their series with the Boston Celtics, there are many things to consider.
They are getting the kind of superstar showing they hoped for from Paolo Banchero. They are getting a strong showing from Franz Wagner. Their defense has mostly held up to give them a chance.
There are a lot more complex reasons, but the main culprit for the Magic's frustrations to this point in the series is the same frustration the Magic have had throughout the entire season—their shooting.
Orlando went 7 for 29 from three (24.1 percent) in Game 2, a percentage that made it impossible for them to keep up with Boston even without Jayson Tatum in the lineup.
The Magic were the worst 3-point shooting team in the league this season. It does not take a genius to see that the Magic's ability to create and make 3-pointers is one of the major things holding them back.
They saw their prized free agent sharpshooter in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope go 0 for 6 on 3-point shots in Game 2, all of them were categorized as "wide-open" with the closest defender six or more feet away, according to NBA.com.
There are a lot of elements that must turn in the Magic's favor. They will need to find shooting. But ultimately, there is a ceiling on what the Magic can do because one of their heaviest-usage players is also struggling from three.
Franz Wagner has put to rest a lot of doubts after his uneven playoff performance last year. He is averaging 24.0 points per game and scored 25 in the Magic's Game 2 loss. He made 10 of 20 shots, helping the Magic's offense keep some pace as he attacked Kristaps Porzingis and finished with deft touch around the rim.
But the shooting. . . the shooting has remained the story for Wagner all season.
After his shot mysteriously betrayed him last year, it has continued to be the missing element in his game. He made only 1 of 7 3-pointers in Game 2 and is shooting 2 for 13 in the series so far.
The Magic have struggled as a team from deep throughout the season. In these playoffs, it has remained a mystery.
"I think he's getting good looks," coach Jamahl Mosley said after Game 2. "You have to give Boston credit for how they are defending. They re flying you off the line, grabbing at bodies, speeding you up. Give credit to their defense. We're getting the looks that we need. You just have to continue to trust."
There are a lot of problems for the Magic to solve offensively. But the ultimate ceiling for this team rests on Wagner and his ability to make threes, especially if he continues to shoot at this volume.
Franz's shooting shortcomings
The Orlando Magic need their best and highest-usage players to be threats from all three levels. Franz Wagner's continued struggles from deep remain an impediment to this team's growth and a ceiling on the team as it tries to navigate beyond this season and eventually into contention.
Wagner started his career solidly from three, shooting 35.4 percent and 36.1 percent from three in his first two years. But last year, his shooting mysteriously went off a cliff. He made only 28.1 percent of his threes last year. He had a slight improvement this year to 29.5 percent from three.
Wagner has made the 3-pointer a big part of his game. It is essential for any perimeter player. And Wagner is missing those shots.
His struggles defy much explanation.
"I don't know. They're not going in," Wagner said after Game 2. "I felt really good. I was surprised a couple of them didn't fall."
There has been a noticeable change since his return from his oblique injury. Before the oblique injury, Wagner shot 32.1 percent from three. That dropped to 27.5 percent after his return.
Everyone takes notice
The rest of the nation is taking notice.
What also came from Franz Wagner's return was a pronounced hitch in his shot, as if he was adjusting his elbow and creating an extra hinge as he goes up for the shot to get in the correct slot like a golfer getting his swing on plane.
It appeared out of nowhere when he returned from the injury with little explanation. And his shoting has been dreadful with it.
It is at least part of why Wagner is shooting 2 for 6 on wide-open threes in the series and settled at 32.0 percent on such attempts for the season.
"I mean, that shot. . . I don't know what to do with it," Sam Vecenie said on the Game Theory podcast. "It looks every time that he takes it to me. And then I start to look at the ones that go in. To me, the gather is the real issue. It's almost like he is trying to find it a little bit during the gather. Then the ones that go in, the elbow is right underneath, and it looks really clean. The release itself is clean, the shot is a mess. It comes out of his hand pure a lot of the time when it goes in. I don't understand."
There are a lot of working theories on why Wagner's shot has gone off. But everyone can see that something is off with it. Something is not right. The percentages certainly suggest that.
In a series with the Celtics, where 3-point shooting is so clearly important, his 3-point shortcomings with his shooting volume are a major factor. Wagner's shooting is the biggest thing that could unlock him as not merely just an All-Star but a potential All-NBA player.
The Magic have already banked a lot on that, giving him a max extension last summer. Even without a reliable 3-point shot, Wagner has put up All-Star-level numbers. He has still performed admirably in the playoffs.
Orlando is not giving up on their player and they are planning to have a long future with Banchero and Wagner as their centerpiece players.
But the Magic are trying to compete for championships one day. Getting his shot down and finding a reliable outside jumper will open everything up for him and make his team even better.
If Orlando has title ambitions, Wagner's shooting right now is a ceiling the team must break through. It is the biggest thing Wagner must straighten out in the offseason.