Orlando Magic are following an old pattern to win a title

The Orlando Magic have pushed their chips in to win a title. But they may be following a path that is outmoded in the new collective bargaining agreement world of aprons and cost cutting.
The Orlando Magic have dove headfirst into the tax to try to win their title. Whether they have set themselves up for success will be the big debate of this season.
The Orlando Magic have dove headfirst into the tax to try to win their title. Whether they have set themselves up for success will be the big debate of this season. | David Butler II-Imagn Images

The Orlando Magic knew this was the summer they had to strike. There was no choice.

Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs were entering the first year of their new contract extensions. Paolo Banchero's contract extension loomed large ahead of them. Orlando is preparing to be in the luxury tax for the foreseeable future and is likely to be a second apron team in the 2027 season.

The second apron comes not only with the increased tax penalties that come out of the owner's pockets. But it comes with a lot of restrictions to add to the roster. Being in the second apron means your roster is essentially locked. It is very difficult to add to the roster beyond minimum contracts (and even that comes with restrictions).

The Magic needed to make their splash this summer -- and before the draft and the flipping of the NBA calendar year at that -- if they were going to compete for a title with this group.

They did that in acquiring Desmond Bane in June. It came at a heavy cost -- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony and as many draft picks as the team was legally allowed to trade. And it has done the job.

The Magic are talked about as dark-horse contenders this season. With how young the roster is overall -- the top four players are all younger than 30 -- they should be competitive for a while.

The question is whether the Magic have a long window to contend or whether it will be a short one.

The general thinking is that the "superteam" era is over. Teams will not be able to afford multiple players on max or near-max salaries. That is why the Boston Celtics were inevitably going to break apart -- Jayson Tatum's injury accelerated their anticipated deconstruction.

But this is the path the Magic are going down. They are not a "superteam" per se. But they will have four players making more than $30 million in the 2027 season. They are a top-heavy team with the way their cap sheet is set up.

That alone will make it tough to add to the roster. And it is why this season is so important to show the Magic have that title potential.

While the new collective bargaining agreement has had some time to settle in and teams have adjusted to the new rules and learned its ins and outs, teams are still trying to figure out the best way to build a title team.

How do you build a team to last in a world where you are constantly cutting costs?

The Magic are a top-heavy team

The Orlando Magic will not break their team apart any time soon. When they handed out the salaries they did, they knew this was the direction they were heading.

Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have earned their max status. Jalen Suggs' contract is front-loaded. The only wrench in the plan might have been the league's more conservative seven-percent growth estimate for the salary cap rather than the full 10-percent increase.

But it is still hard to get around, the Magic are a top-heavy team. Extremely top-heavy.

According to estimates from Spotrac, the Magic's top four players -- Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs and Desmond Bane -- will account for 91.7 percent of the cap. That is assuming Banchero gets only the 25 percent max. It would jump to 96.7 percent if Banchero makes an All-NBA team and receives the full Rose Rule max.

It is safe to assume that would happen. And it is safe to assume the Magic will be paying the tax so long as they have that quartet. They still have to fill out the rest of the roster.

The question is whether this is abnormal.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are not a good example since so many of their players are still on rookie contracts. But in the 2027 season when Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams' extensions kick in, they will account for 74.7 percent of the salary cap.

The Orlando Magic are built more like the Boston Celtics from the 2024 season. Boston's main quartet of Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brown, Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis would account for 110.3 percent of the salary cap.

It is easy to see why the Celtics had to make some difficult choices, especially considering they were without Tatum this season.

Teams can win with this top-heavy model. But it becomes unsustainable. And it makes every choice around those players far more important.

Depth matters more?

Teams are still figuring out how to build a successful and sustainable roster in this new reality. A lot of teams are beliving more and more that this top-heavy model does not work anymore. Teams need more nimbleness to work around the cap and depth with how much demand is on players throughout the league.

The Indiana Pacers are a great example.

Last year's Pacers' top four players accounted for 83.4 percent of the team's salary cap, but Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam accounted for 60 percent of the cap. Indiana put a lot of money in those top two players, but spread the rest around the roster.

They were a tour de force, constantly putting pressure no matter their lineups or injuries.

Some teams are going to invest in depth as their way to win a title. An Eastern Conference scout told Tim Bontemps of ESPN that he thinks depth is the ticket and the way teams will build sustainable title teams. That might be the lesson in team-building teams take from last year's finals, considering the depth the Thunder and Pacers had.

Orlando is not following that path. The Magic are betting on going big with a group of four players to anchor the team. They have faith that they have the depth to get by.

That is still one of the biggest questions for the Magic. They are counting on a lot of young, unproven players to step up along with the return of Moe Wagner in December.

With how the Magic are constructed, they are betting they have the depth to sustain. They are betting their top four will carry the day. They are betting that they can succeed with this top-heavy construction.

If the team struggles this year, their window could be much shorter than they hoped.