Nobody should expect much of anything with the 46th pick in the Draft.
In the last 10 years, the players picked at No. 46 have played a combined 1,409 games, with many of them coming from Dalano Banton, Talen Horton-Tucker and De'Anthony Melton. Not exactly household names.
Everyone should be adjusting their expectations for the Draft this week, especially if the Magic stick to the 46th pick. Or even if the team moves up.
By the time the Magic get to the end of the first round or get to the second round, many of the elite prospects could dry out. Even quality role players could be tougher to find -- partly a product of NIL payments in the college game, enticing players to stay and even international players to forego the draft.
The reality may be setting in that the kind of players the Magic are searching for in this Draft may not be available.
"I hate to be the pessimist on this podcast, but I don't think they're going to find the player that they really need to be able to come off the bench," Nathan Grubel of No Ceilings told me on Locked On Magic. "I think they need a combo guard and someone who can even slide up to the three spot on rare occasions to spell Tristan da Silva, for example. Like, that's the type of player I think they need. The problem is: I don't think that player is going to be available for them in that range in the draft. And quite honestly, I don't even know if that player would really be there for them even if they found a way to like trade up into the 30s or maybe even trying to be optimistic like the late twenties."
That might be the reality of this Draft. The Magic will be hard-pressed to find players who can make an impact.
With where the Magic are at developmentally, the team needs to find players who can contribute quickly. They are not in a position to waste the affordability of draft picks.
But finding time for young players to play and avoid mistakes is difficult. Both Jase Richardson and Noah Penda struggled to find playing time last year -- and may struggle again this year.
These picks are still an investment. But it is just as likely the Magic spend it on a stash player like Alba Berlin's Jack Kayil (who was set to go to Gonzaga before staying in the NBA Draft). Orlando could also do its special and punt the second-round pick down the road or sell it outright.
After Tuesday's first round, there will be a better understanding of who will actually be available. Predicting the second round and the wide range of prospects -- not to mention how agents manipulate picks in the second round -- is extremely difficult.
But for now, as we enter Draft week, these are players mocked to the Magic in various mock drafts and how they might or might not fit:
Ugonna Onyenso, Virginia
6.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.9 BPG (ACC-leading), 56.8% FG%, 18.6 MPG
Mocked to Magic by: Sam Vecenie, The Athletic; Jeremy Woo, ESPN
Ugonna Onyenso is one of the more intriguing, athletic big men in this Draft. If there is one thing worth gambling on with young players, it is typically athleticism.
The Orlando Magic are in desperate need of some athleticism and above-the-rim play. They gave up 66.2 percent shooting at the rim last year, according to data from Second Spectrum. That was 15th in the league. That was a major decrease from their defensive heydays.
But Orlando does not exactly have a scary rim protector. And the potential to trade Goga Bitadze and lose Jonathan Isaac means the Magic lose almost all of the rim protection and deterrence that they do have.
That would make someone like Onyenso intriguing.
But clearly, there are a lot of holes. He might have the athleticism and rim protection that stand out and make highlights, but he is not going to do much offensively, and he is still not a strong rebounder or physical defender.
The more refined player would be Arkansas' Trevon Brazille, but he could be taken just before the Magic make their selection.
Nick Martinelli, Northwestern
23.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 51.0% FG%, 41.7% 3FG%, 80.9% FT%
Mocked to Magic by: Christopher Kline, Fansided
This Northwestern alum would be very happy to welcome Nick Martinelli to the Orlando Magic. He has one skill that the Magic are desperately looking: He just knows how to put the ball in the basket.
Martinelli led the Big Ten in scoring the last two years, not an easy feat and especially at Northwestern, traditionally a lower-run program that lacks talent. Martinelli stood out and carried his team with several crafty finishes and the ability to create and make his own shot.
That also means he did all of that and shot efficiently as the clear guy that defenses needed to focus on. Martinelli was a handful throughout the conference.
Orlando desperately needs more players who know how to create their own shot and get to their spots to score. Martinelli would fit that bill.
But there are questions about whether Martinelli can get his own shot at the NBA level and keep up with NBA athleticism. He also has not played off the ball in several years. Becoming a better spot-up shooter will be imperative for him to find his spot in the NBA.
The other creator scoring option the Magic could look at is Ohio State's Bruce Thornton.
Emmanuel Sharp, Houston
15.5 PPG, 41.3 FG%, 37.2 3FG%, 7.1 3PAPG, 1.7 APG
Mocked to Magic by: Kevin O'Connor, Yahoo! Sports
The Orlando Magic need shooting. They are desperate for players who just know how to make shots when they are open and are constant threats from three.
They acquired Desmond Bane a year ago just to increase their volume. There is some hope that Sean Sweeney's offensive strategy will include an increase in volume.
But that also means the Magic need to emphasize finding shooters in whatever package or way they come in.
That could lead the Magic to shirk its typical emphasis on size to draft someone like Emmanuel Sharp from Houston.
Sharp was one of the best shooters in the Big 12 last year. Playing at Houston would suggest he is committed to their tough-nosed defense. He plays hard on that end. And he has to.
Sharp is not big though. He measured at 6-foot-2.75 without shoes with a 6-foot-3 wingspan at the NBA Draft Combine. And he was not a point guard, evidenced by his low assist number. He is just a small shooter.
That is a skll the Magic ned. But not likely someplace they will compromise.
The other shooter to watch in this spot is Vanderbilt's Tyler Nickel.
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