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- Season Series: Hawks 112, Magic 106 in Orlando on Feb. 10; Magic 114, Hawks 108 in Atlanta on Feb. 20; Tonight in Orlando; April 13 in Atlanta
Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Atlanta | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
103.5 | Pace | 96.4 |
113.4 | Off. Rtg. | 108.7 |
115.1 | Def. Rtg. | 109.2 |
54.3 | eFG% | 50.8 |
30.0 | O.Reb.% | 30.2 |
14.9 | TO% | 14.7 |
25.2 | FTR | 27.1 |
3. Control the pace
The Orlando Magic have talked about it endlessly as they try to squeeze everything they can out of this offense to end the season. They are trying to pick up their pace and get into their offense sooner.
Their mini-revival on offense has come because the is getting up the court quicker—the goal is to be over the mid-court line with 21 seconds left, Molsey says.
The Magic are not always successful at this endeavor. Orlando's offense bogs down the most when the team slows down. And the team now plays at the slowest pace in the league. The Magic play at a pace of 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes in the last 15 games—nearly a full possession slower than the team's average.
In the meantime, Orlando has a 113.8 offensive rating, which is more than five points per 100 possessions better than its season average. The Magic are scoring more.
Pace will matter in this game. The Atlanta Hawks play at the third-fastest pace in the league. They like to get up and down the floor and get their shots up. It is not a pace the Magic can sustain.
Orlando is looking for balance. The Magic need to control the pace. They need to play quickly, but still limit possessions. That is the key.
Whoever controls the pace to this game will likely win.
2. Containing Trae Young
Everyone on the Orlando Magic admitted that everything with the Atlanta Hawks starts and ends with Trae Young. Young is the engine that drives the Hawks. For essentially his whole career, he has turned the Hawks into a top-10 offense by his presence alone.
This year, he is averaging 24.0 points per game and a league-high 11.6 assists per game. He generates just about everything for the Hawks. And indeed, Atlanta has a 115.0 offensive rating with Young on the floor. The Hawks have just a 104.3 offensive rating with Young off the floor.
The Hawks have had a big offensive run since the All-Star break and the trades they made at the deadline. Atlanta's offensive rating is 119.6 points per 100 possessions with Young on the floor since the All-Star break. The Hawks have a 109.7 offensive rating with him off the floor, still the team's worst.
Young is everything for the team. And the Magic have done a decent job on him.
Young had only 19 points with eight assists and nine turnovers in the win in Orlando. Young made only one of his eight 3-pointers. In the second meeting in Atlanta, he had a more robust 38 points on 13-for-28 shooting. But he made only 4 of 13 3-pointers.
Keeping Young under wraps is critical to any chance at a win.
1. Paolo Banchero and the size advantage
The Orlando Magic have a size mismatch in almost every game they play. That is part of the theory of their roster building. Teams have to make some difficult decisions on how to defend Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. One of them is bound to have an advantage.
They tend to pound that matchup and attack the paint. This Magic team puts a lot of their usage into Banchero and Wagner and so there is a lot of responsibility on them to attack the basket and make the most of their usage.
Against Atlanta, Banchero had 31 points, six rebounds and four assists in the loss in Orlando. He followed that up with 36 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in the win in Atlanta.
In his career, Banchero averages 24.8 points per game, 6.9 rebounds per game and 4.6 assists per game in nine games against the Hawks. Missing Jalen Johnson is a big part of the Hawks' inability to defend Paolo Banchero effectively.
Wagner has not been too shabby either. Wagner had 37 points in the loss to Atlanta and then followed it up with 25 points, seven rebounds and five assists in the second meeting.
The Magic's two stars have the advantages and the ability to show up in a big way.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Atlanta Hawks Injury Report
- Trae Young - PROBABLE (Right Achilles Tendinitis)
- Jalen Johnson - OUT (Left Shoulder Surgery)
- Larry Nance Jr. - OUT (Right Medial Femoral Condyle Fracture)
- Clint Capela - OUT (Left Fourth Metacarpal Ligament Sprain)
- Kobe Bufkin - OUT (Right Shoulder Surgery)
- Jacob Toppin - OUT (Left Calf Strain)
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Jalen Suggs - OUT (Left Knee Trochlea Cartiliage Tear)
- Moe Wagner - OUT (Left Knee Torn ACL)
- Mac McClung - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Ethan Thompson - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Lineups
Atlanta | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
Trae Young | PG | Cory Joseph |
Dyson Daniels | SG | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope |
Zaccharie Risacher | SF | Franz Wagner |
Georges Niang | PF | Paolo Banchero |
Onyeka Okongwu | C | Wendell Carter |
Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic: Prediction
Our Record: 43-35/40-38 ATS
Regular season games do not get much bigger than this one between the Orlando Magic and the Atlanta Hawks. A win by the Magic would essentially lock up the 7-seed and the Southeast Division title (they would need one more win or one more Hawks loss to clinch it).
A loss for the Magic gives that control back to the Hawks and guarantees the season finale in Atlanta will be consequential. And likely forces the Orlando Magic to win at least one of the games against the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers to close the season. The Atlanta Hawks travel to face the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers before facing the Orlando Magic again.
The Hawks are entering this game with some frustrating play too. The good defense Atlanta had played most of the season has disappeared. The Hawks have given up more than 120 points in seven straight games and 115 or more points in nine straight games.
Atlanta can outscore opponents right now. The Atlanta Hawks made 22 threes in their 147-134 win over the Utah Jazz on Sunday. Utah still made 20 threes.
The Magic cannot get into that kind of a game. But with a major rest advantage, an offense that is more in rhythm and a defense rounding into form, it is no wonder the Magic are favored.
A bad offensive game is always around the corner with this team. But with a solid defensive effort, the Magic should give themselves a chance to win.