Fans will inevitably groan when the Orlando Magic's starting lineup is announced Monday night in San Francisco.
Tyus Jones has become the bane of Magic fans' existence. The veteran point guard has brought some stability, but his defensive shortcomings have overwhelmed whatever positive impact he has on offense.
Even though he has improved greatly from his early season frustrations, the Magic have a -7.9 net rating with Jones on the floor. No other rotation players has a net rating worse than -1.1 (Jonathan Isaac).
Right now, the Magic really do not have a choice but to play -- and start -- Jones with all the injuries they have. Coach Jamahl Mosley is trying to slap together workable lineups and find something to get his team through this period when so many players are out.
Mosley has limited resources available. The hope is that he can hit on things and help players deeper down the bench find confidence as the team waits for the moment when they will be fully healthy.
Because the one thing that should be clear through these early games is that the Magic have a lot in reserve. Orlando is holding the ship together, knowing that at some point, and perhaps soon, the team will have its full reserve.
The Magic are a sleeping giant around the league and everyone seems to know it.
It is not merely that Orlando has thrived during a difficult part of the schedule -- with a much easier path ahead for the next four weeks -- the Magic have a lot of workable lineups to use. Just many of them are not available right now.
Orlando is already top 10 in the league in offensive and defensive rating. While the team has not climbed into the top five in defensive rating yet and their hold on 10th in offensive rating is a tenuous one, that is typically the signal that a team is ready to contend.
The Magic are not quite there yet. But that also might be because they have not seen their best lineups play enough. And Orlando has a lot of them to choose from.
Better lineups, more choices
The Orlando Magic figured they would be improved this year simply because they had better players.
The acquisition of Desmond Bane gave the Magic another major offensive weapon and another player who could attack. His presence has given the Magic two All-Star-level players, even with Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs out.
His play was essential when Paolo Banchero was out of the lineup, and it is essential now with Franz Wagner out.
Even if the Magic are still missing pieces, it is clear they have a lot more top-end talent and more depth that has stepped in and filled in.
Bane alone gives the Magic so many more options. And Orlando has more proven quality lineups to turn to.
Of the Magic's 10 most-used lineups this season, eight of them have a positive net rating. Five of them have net ratings of better than 10.0 points per 100 possessions.
Last year, the team had only four of its 10 most-used lineups with a positive net rating. Four of them had net ratings of 10.0 points per 100 possessions or better, but two had net ratings of -15.0 points per 100 possessions or worse.
The Magic's most-used lineups this year are among their best for any group that has played relatively significant time. And that is something the team can build on when they are healthy.
Orlando's starting lineup of Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter has a +18.0 net rating (122.6 offensive rating/104.6 defensive rating) in 117 minutes across 11 games. Among lineups that have played at least 100 minutes together this season, it is the third-best lineup in the league.
One of the Magic's main bench groups featuring Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, Tristan da Silva, Franz Wagner and Goga Bitadze has a +32.8 net rating (121.7/88.9) in 55 minutes across 11 games.
Even the lineup with Tyus Jones surrounded by strong defenders in Desmond Bane, Anthony Black, Jonathan Isaac and Wendell Carter has a +33.8 net rating (115.4/81.6) in 47 minutes.
There are a lot of lineups that work. But clearly these are all still very small samples. They are playing only a few minutes together per game and have not played very much together at all. Orlando is still working out the best rotations.
It is waiting to see what it can do with a full complement of players. Everything else has been an experiment to this point.
What doesn't work
Part of the Orlando Magic's struggles this season then has been having to find the right combinations with the players they have available.
The Magic should feel fairly confident that their starting lineup is going to work well for them. It is just about having it all on the floor at the same time. The Magic have a backbone. They just need it healthy and to find lineups that grow out from it.
For as good as that lineup is, the Magic's second- and third-most-used lineups this season have a negative net rating.
Orlando's starting lineup with Tristan da Silva in for Paolo Banchero has a -9.1 net rating (106.0/115.1) in 98 minutes. The majority of that group's struggles have come in the last 10 games, where it has a -27.0 net rating in 42 minutes, including an 88.4 offensive rating, a big byproduct of da Silva's shooting slump.
The starting group with Anthony Black in for Jalen Suggs has a -6.3 net rating (108.4/114.7) in 77 minutes.
But even during the last 10 games, with all the injuries and Paolo Banchero working his way back into shape, only two of the 10 most-used lineups has a negative net rating, including the one mentioned above.
Of course, those are really small sample sizes. It is still subjet to wild swings.
But it leads to one truth for the Magic at this stage: They have a lot working for them. When this team is healthy, it should have plenty of tools and weapons to build a rotation that constantly puts pressure on opponents.
The Magic are a sleeping giant, just waiting to get healthy.
Until then, Orlando is doing its best to hold the ship stead. Even if that means stomaching some rough moments to connect the dots.
