In November and December, Franz Wagner could seemingly do no wrong.
The last time he saw Anthony Davis, he had his shining moment, taking advantage of two missed Davis free throws for the moment of his career, stepping in confidently into a step-back 3-point shot for the win over the Los Angeles Lakers.
Wagner was rolling. He was on his own run of scoring 30 points and on top of the world. Nobody in the league could stop him. He was destined to be an All-Star.
Wagner would go down to his own oblique injury and miss a little more than a month, interrupting his rise.
Still, nothing seemed to slow him down. While Paolo Banchero struggled in his first weeks after returning from his injury, Franz Wagner seemed to keep going. Nothing seemed to stop him.
Until now, it seems.
While Wagner has still had some big games, the Magic are seeing something rare with Wagner: Inconsistency. He has had an up-and-down run lately and is struggling with the runners and flip shots that are his bread and butter.
And that does not get into his 3-point frustrations and struggles since returning from the injury and since the All-Star break.
Wagner has been on an inevitable rise. He has become the advanced stats darling with some arguing the Magic should build around him. But he has hit something of a wall. Or a relative wall.
It is all coming at the worst time as the Magic are in an intense final push to the regular season. But the Magic need Wagner to carry his share of the load. Orlando leans heavily on its two stars more than ever, with all the injuries the team has faced.
A career season
Franz Wagner has had a career season once again. He has increased his scoring average to 24.3 points per game. If not for his injury, he likely would have made his first All-Star team. The Orlando Magic have a pair of wing All-Stars for the first time since Shaquille O'Neal and Anfernee Hardaway.
But Wagner is shooting a career-low 46.0 percent from the floor and 29.3 percent from three—still a percentage point better from last year's puzzling downturn, but not a good number by any means.
You would expect efficiency to decrease with Wagner's increase in usage—he has gone from 15.2 field goal attempts per game to 19.5 and from a 25.7 percent usage rate to 31.4 percent. With the Magic needing so much from both Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, it is hard for them to withstand poor games from either.
With Banchero on a histori run of 30-point games in Magic history, Wagner's inconsistency lately has stood out.
That is why one of the things that stood out in Thursday's loss to the Dallas Mavericks was Wagner's 8-for-21 showing to get his 20 points—a 43.9 percent true shooting percentage. That followed an 8-for-22 showing for 26 points against the Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday.
The Magic still get a lot from Wagner.
"I think he made those shots in Charlotte. He made those with the Lakers," coach Jamahl Mosley said after the Orlando Magic's loss to the Dallas Mavericks. "I think one game. We aren't judging it far on that much. They didn't go in tonight. We have to look at that. But it wasn't the fact that those shots didn't go in that was the reason behind it."
Nobody is worried about Wagner long-term. He was critical in the win over the Los Angeles Lakers, 32 points on 13-for-26 shooting. That included hitting a game-clinching three with about three minutes left that quieted any chance for a Lakers' run.
But his rough games stand out at this time of year.
Hitting his wall
Franz Wagner has struggled more than usual, shooting worse than 50 percent in nine of his last 11 games. Wagner has shot 50 percent or better in 21 of his 54 games this season—he shot at least 50 percent in 36 of his 72 games last year.
That is an undeniable downturn. And this stretch has been noticeable with some of his struggles to hit those runners, layups and float shots. And without a reliable three-point shot, it only makes the hill harder for him to climb and thus for the Magic.
There is a significant downturn recently though.
Before Wagner's injury, he averaged 24.4 points per game while shooting 46.5 percent from the floor and 32.1 percent from three. He averaged 18.9 field goal attempts per game.
According to NBA.com's tracking data, Wagner took 66.9 percent on his 6.3 field goal attempts per game in the restricted area and 40.2 percent on 4.9 attempts per game in the paint outside the restricted area. He shot 49.2 percent on "driving layup" shots and 42.0 percent on "driving floating jump shots."
Since returning from injury, though, he is still averaging 24.2 points per game and his shooting numbers are virtually the same—45.2 percent from the floor and 26.3 percent from three.
But since the break, those numbers have dipped. Wagner is averaging 22.6 points per game and shooting 45.0 percent from the floor and 22.6 percent from three.
Since the break, he is shooting 48.2 percent on driving layup shots and 45.2 percent on driving floating jump shots. But he is taking more of those floating jump shots than layups, when the two were reversed before the injury.
Some of this is undoubtedly because of the attention Wagner has received. He established himself as a star player and is now getting treated as such with regular double teams. The lack of shooting around the Magic has only put more pressure on Wagner and Banchero to create.
And right now, the Magic need Banchero and Wagner to be dominant players—hitting their averages and combining for nearly 60 points per game—to have a chance to win.
That probably puts unfair expectations on Wagner. When he or Banchero struggles, it becomes obvious how much the Magic will struggle.
It is more of a sign the team needs to add more attackers that can create space for Wagner and Banchero to attack.
Wagner's efficiency was one of his big attractions. Everyone expected a downturn because of his increased usage and expansion of his offensive role.
Those considerations will come in the offseason. For now, the Magic need to find a way to get Wagner going downhill and shooting consistently. That could be the difference between wins and losses at this critical point in the season.