There is a clock hanging over the Orlando Magic.
Actually, it feels like several clocks are hanging over the team this season with all the pressure this season will bring.
But the most immediate deadline facing the team is the 6 p.m. Oct. 19 deadline for rookie extensions. That represents a major turning point for the Magic. The first real recognition of the team's tighter financial reality and the turning-point decision that begins to deconstruct or reconstruct the Magic in response to the first apron.
Anthony Black has been a promising young player. He carved out a role as a defender off the bench in his first two seasons. But last year was a true breakout -- 15.0 points per game and a stretch in December and January where Black was the driving force in winning games.
Black was finally realizing his full potential.
That does not make anything easier. Everyone understood, that while the Magic needed Black, he was becoming even more expensive.
It was leading, inevitably to a stalemate of some kind.
There is now a week remaining before the Magic and Black hit that extension deadline. Everything seems to be heading toward the inevitable -- that both sides want to use this season to set his final value in restricted free agency. It has long been reported the Magic are being careful about their finances as they approach the second apron. And Black certainly could increase his value with another breakout season.
The only good news is that both parties seem to understand where things stand and are willing to play it out.
"It would be great to get that done," Black said during Media Day. "Teams in a weird spot with that. I'm trying to stay where my feet are. I'm focused on getting better every day. If that happens, that would be great obviously. Bt it's a business. They've got things they've got to worry about and I've got things I've got to worry about. If it happens, it happens."
Things could very well get done before Monday's deadline. Jeff Weltman has a long history of taking care of his players. None of his draft picks with the Magic have reached restricted free agency.
But this is a different time. The Magic are increasingly expensive. A Black extension would guarantee another season above the first apron line.
And that is animating the Magic's decision as much as anything.
Marc Stein and Jake Fischer reported that a contract extension is appearing unlikely because of these financial realities. They report that the Magic and Black have not engaged in any "meaningful extension dialogue to date" because of these financial concerns.
Everyone realizes the Magic will find it difficult to keep both Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black. It is clear the Magic are increasingly going to let this season play out before making any major decisions about the team's future.
Tight quarters
The financial reality of the team's cap situation is the animating force for the Orlando Magic.
Orlando is projected to have $192.7 million in guaranteed salary for the 2028 season wrapped up into eight players, assuming the team picks up team options for Tristan da Silva and Jase Richardson. That puts the Magic a little less than $19 million beneath the projected luxury tax line for the 2028 season.
Orlando still has a full roster to fill out beyond those eight players.
It is why the Magic are already previewing that they will need to make significant changes to the roster next offseason. Barring a championship run, the Magic cannot remain this expensive.
And Black is sure to make more than $19 million per year in his next contract.
"You guys know we are in a lot tighter quarters than we have been in years past," president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman said at Media Day. "We believe he is a bright young player in this league who is just going to get better and better. We'll have continuous conversations with his people up until the deadline. We're hopeful we can arrive at something. If not, we expect Anthony to have a great year. They don't always get done right now. Soemtimes they get done later."
Figuring out Black's value is also increasingly difficult.
During his best run, some predicted that Black would seek a contract similar to what Jalen Suggs got, flirting with $30 million. At various points in the season, some projected him coming in at a lower number near $20 million per year.
This weekend, a benchmark was set when the Golden State Warriors and Brandin Podziemski agreed to a five-year, $110-million extension -- an annual average value of $22 million.
Podziemski averaged 13.8 points per game last year, but on better shooting efficiency. It is at least a good comp for Black and a floor for his contract. It should be noted, too, that Podziemski and Black share an agency.
It is fair to assume that Black will ask for at least a similar amount as negotiations pick up or when the team gets to the offseason and plan to retain Black.
A big season ahead
The reportedly stalled nature of these negotiations is not about Anthony Black or how he is playing.
It is fair for critics to say the Magic should be paitent and ask Black to copy his breakout season. Orlando would essentially be paying for one great season rather than three stellar seasons.
Black needed to come into his own. This is a big season for him to prove who he is.
"It just gave me confidence I can do it," Black said at Media Day. "It was the first time I was ever asked to play like that and the first change I got to show what I can do more. Big confidence boost. Now I know a little better what I can do. Just happy to be back, happy to be here in the gym in camp. It's been good."
Black is among the favorites to win Sixth Man of the Year, and he figures to play a big role in supporting a strong starting lineup. The Magic certainly believe Black can be a major contributor to the team moving forward.
But as Orlando begins to plan its future, it still does not know what team it will be.
Jeff Weltman has already publicly said the team cannot return as constructed next year. It is simply too expensive. Some have taken that to mean a split of the Magic's two main stars is possible.
Why would the Magic commit to Black when they are not even sure what their team will look like?
It is a big year not only for Black to set his future value but for the Magic to figure out what their team will be beyond this season.
Those are the conditions to letting everyone play things out. All the trend lines are pointing toward restricted free agency for Black.
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