Orlando Magic president of basketball operations has warned for years that the team would have to pay the piper. It comes for everyone. And eventually, the Magic's period of short rookie contracts would give way to the realities of building a competent NBA team.
That time came this year, with the Magic ducking the luxury tax at the trade deadline, and will take full effect next year when Paolo Banchero's -- and Wendell Carter's -- extension kicks in.
Orlando will pay the tax for the first time next season since 2012 and be a first apron team next season at the very least.
The first big contract decision the Magic will make in their apron era is involving Anthony Black.
The third-year guard has had a breakout season, averaging a career-best 15.5 points per game. He has carried the team through some rough stretches this season and had his own slate of major highlights -- including the jaw-dropping dunk over the Memphis Grizzlies in Berlin.
It has left the Magic asking a very real question of how to engage him in contract extension negotiations.
While the Magic have a lot of work to do this offseason, this is the biggest question facing the Magic -- and will surely force a potential decision between Anthony Black and Jalen Suggs when the cap restrictions begin to hit really hard.
Suggs has been a good model for what Black could potentially get. At least, that is what Zach Lowe surmised on The Zach Lowe Show:
"If I'm Anthony Black's agent, I'm going into extension negotiatoions this summer and I'm saying, 'Not a penny less than Jalen Suggs. I've been better than him this season and I play more than him,'" Lowe said. "And that contract is going to foist some very tough decisions onto the Magic."
Black has stepped up into that conversation, even if that feels like it might be a bit much. Orlando will need to take care of Black, but carefully measure his value or be saddled with another bad contract.
This has been a breakout year for Black. But the measure for what he will make will depend on how he responds to his latest slump and how he finishes the season.
The Magic are aiming to compete and go deeper into the Playoffs. And so whether Black gets the rich payday everyone thinks he can will come down to how he finishes the season. And how he gets out of a February slump that has slowed him down.
A breakout season
It has been a breakout season for Anthony Black.
He is averaging a career-high 15.5 points per game while shooting 45.1 percent from the floor and 33.9 percent from three on increased volume. This season has really been one about growing confidence.
Black has become a reliable player whom the Magic can build lineups around and rely on to lead the charge offensively.
Black had his true breakout in December and January when he averaged 18.3 points per game on 45.6 percent shooting and 35.9 percent shooting from three. He added 5.0 rebounds per game and 5.1 assists per game.
Black has scored 20 points in a career-high 19 games this season, including dropping a career-high 38 points in a December win over the Denver Nuggets.
It is easy to compare him directly to Suggs -- since they both play the similar quasi-point guard position, and it seems those two contracts will be the ones the team debates when it faces its cap crunch. Black has outperformed him statistically -- Suggs is at 13.6 points per game and 32.4 percent shooting from three.
It is easy to see why Lowe might step out onto a limb to say Black should cross the $30 million threshhold. It is a conversation worth having.
Suggs signed a five-year, $150.5 million that is front-loaded -- he makes $35 million this year and $32.4 million next year, finishing at $26.7 million and a team option in 2030. That is an annual average value of $30.1 million.
That seems a bit rich for Black.
Whether Black gets there though will be determined by how he finishes the season and responds to a slump that has slowed his season down recently.
A February slump
Much of Anthony Black's offseason is going to be spent preparing physically to handle all the added responsibility he now has as a primary scorer for the team.
It has definitely felt like he has hit a bit of a wall with his increased usage and involvement in the offense. Defenses are keying in on him a bit more too.
Black has hit a bit of a slump in recent games.
Since Feb. 1 (12 games), Black is averaging only 13.7 points per game and shooting 40.5 percent from the floor and 28.3 percent from three. While his scoring output is still higher, it looks more like the inconsistent offensive contributions that had him in and out of the rotation throughout his first few years in the league.
Black has dealt with his share of injuries that he has been able to play through.
He missed two games earlier this week with a right quad contusion. Black explained in the locker room before Sunday's loss to the Detroit Pistons that he was experiencing some soreness in his left leg and opted to sit out when he started feeling pain in his right leg, too.
But, if the Magic are going to climb the standings and escape the Play-In, let alone make noise when they get into their Playoff series, they will need Black at his absolute best.
That ultimately is where Black will prove his value to this team. And if Black wants the big contract that will make the Magic rethink their team makeup, he will have to finish the season strong.
The team's success will help pad Black's pockets when his representatives sit down with the Magic this summer to discuss that extension.
These are good problems to have. More talent is never a bad thing -- even if the league's rules force teams to make difficult choices to retain that talent. And Black has put the Magic in a welcomed difficult position.
They want to see him return to his December and January form after he has struggled through February with the added attention and pressure.