The Oklahoma City Thunder managed to achieve something the Orlando Magic could not in the 2023 season, as they actually competed in the Play-In Tournament.
After a 5-20 start, the Magic having that as a realistic goal for them felt unlikely. And yet, by year’s end the fact they were in the conversation for as long as they were brought comfort for the future.
We know the Magic are going to be better next season by virtue of the fact their young players alone are going to improve. The offseason may even speed up that process.
Concrete steps forward are not enough though. There are still dangers ahead in the rebuilding process.
But the organization should proceed with caution, because the Oklahoma City Thunder showed just how hard actually reaching the next level is going to be for the Orlando Magic.
This is despite the fact the Western Conference was as open as it has been for some time, with the Oklahoma City Thunder taking advantage of this even though they are not yet ready to compete seriously.
With Chet Holmgren out for the entire season, they did not get off to the best start. But star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had other ideas and drove the Thunder to a 40-42 finish and the ninth spot in the West.
This is a great place to start because we can all accept Gilgeous-Alexander is currently better than any player the Magic have.
His 31.4 points per game were the fourth highest in the entire league, with the 5.5 assists and 4.8 rebounds he tallied crucial for a young team that needed all of his productivity.
We know the sky is the limit for Paolo Banchero to eventually produce similar scoring numbers (especially in the suped-up offensive world the league is living in). We are talking a top-five talent in the league one day good. But is it certain he will be as good as Gilgeous-Alexander is now, next season?
The smart answer would be no, and while that is perfectly acceptable, it also illustrates just how difficult it is to have real success in the NBA.
The Magic have rightly pinned much of their future on Banchero, as they should. But it will take several seasons before he gets to the level Gilgeous-Alexander is at now.
This Thunder roster also boasts Josh Giddey, who depending on your opinion may be a better player than Franz Wagner. Whatever your thoughts, it is certainly close between the two.
On Wednesday, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey became the youngest pair of teammates in NBA history to each score 30+ points in a game when facing elimination (Play-In or Playoffs). pic.twitter.com/K5e6mXzznN
— NBA History (@NBAHistory) April 14, 2023
Beyond those two players, Luguentz Dort and rookie Jalen Williams, who was absolutely not at any point leading Paolo Banchero in the Rookie of the Year race but will be a surefire first-team all-rookie player, the Thunder are not much better than the Magic.
In actual fact, the Magic with Markelle Fultz, Wendell Carter, Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs, might already boast if not the better-supporting cast, then certainly one with a higher ceiling.
These are two teams that are very comparable and growing at about the same rate — the Thunder had a few years head start after acquiring Gilgeous-Alexander from the LA Clippers.
During the regular season, the Thunder had an above-average defensive rating (113.2, the Magic coming in just behind at 113.7) and the 16th-best offensive rating (114.2, miles better than the Magic’s bottom five 111.3).
Both of these numbers not only surpassed the Orlando Magic but were not good enough to beat the dysfunctional Minnesota Timberwolves in a one-off game to make the postseason.
You know, those same Timberwolves who just stole a game from the Denver Nuggets in the playoffs, and who the Magic should be keeping an eye on with a view to inquiring about Anthony Edwards.
Between Rudy Gobert, Kyle Anderson and the “is he actually a player who you can win a series with?” abilities of Karl-Anthony Towns, it would be fair to say the Timberwolves were there for the taking in the Play-In Tournament.
Yet the Thunder, despite having Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey and their motley crew, were unable to do so.
So despite fans hoping the Magic would make the Play-In Tournament, and as much as it would have been a beneficial experience for the group, the Thunder have shown they were not ready.
If you put the Orlando Magic as the ninth seed in the East this year, that would have meant a game against the Toronto Raptors. Had they won that game, they then would have faced the Miami Heat.
Beating the Toronto Raptors was far from a given, but with the Miami Heat currently 2-1 up over the Milwaukee Bucks (albeit without Giannis Antetokounmpo), there is little chance the Orlando Magic were winning that.
Which should be a sobering realization despite all of the optimism around the franchise. Play-In success is not ultimate playoff success. There is still a long way to go.
The Magic are likely to have two lottery picks this summer and will be players in free agency and trades throughout the offseason.
But as long as they do not actually win the NBA Lottery and Banchero and Wagner are their two guys, then the road the Thunder are currently traveling should give them an insight into the near future.
Winning more games in the regular season next year is likely — but beyond that — this will be really, really hard. Even being the seventh seed will mean having to be in the Play-In Tournament.
If you gave the organization today the chance to be the seventh seed next season, they would bite your hand off.
The Magic are not winning a championship from that position, and then all of a sudden Wagner is in the final year of his rookie deal and Banchero will be going into his third season in the league.
Time is already ticking on the Magic to take their step forward.
All of this is not being said so as to quell the obvious optimism around the Magic. They are without a doubt going in the right direction and have the core players to be a top-four seed one day.
But if the Thunder have shown them anything in how they bowed out of the postseason picture this year, it is that the journey is going to be a long one, with plenty of downs to match the ups.
Fans of the Magic need to strap themselves in for the journey and be aware of the path they are undertaking with this team.