Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat (Feb. 11, 2023): 3 Things To Watch, Odds and Prediction
The Orlando Magic conclude their final homestand before the All-Star Break as they take on the Miami Heat with postseason chases beginning to tighten.
Orlando Magic (23-33) vs. Miami Heat (31-25)
Time/TV: 7 p.m./Bally Sports Florida
WATCH MAGIC-HEAT ON FUBO TV
FOLLOW LIVE: @OMAGICDAILY
Line: Even
Tickets: $59-$4,836 on StubHub
Season Series: Heat 110, Magic 105 in Miami on Jan. 27; Tonight in Orlando; March 11 in Orlando; April 9 in Miami
| Pace | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% | FTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 97.1 | 111.0 | 110.9 | 52.0 | 27.3 | 13.7 | 25.9 |
| Orlando | 99.3 | 111.7 | 114.3 | 53.5 | 27.6 | 15.1 | 30.1 |
OMD Prediction
On paper, the Miami Heat do not seem that impressive of a team. They have one of the worst offenses in the league and are a poor 3-point shooting team. They do not even make up for that by getting to the foul line. They thrive on their defense especially.
Yet, this is still a team that makes everyone a bit nervous. Just ask the Houston Rockets, who lost Friday night in Miami on a Jimmy Butler alley-oop off an inbound pass.
The one thing you cannot do against the Heat is count them out. They have an All-Star in Bam Adebayo and a snub (although he is not complaining about it) in Jimmy Butler. The Heat are still very dangerous if you let them stay in a game.
The Orlando Magic played the Miami Heat tough in their first meeting. But turnovers and a surprising burst of 3-point shooting did them in during the fourth quarter. The Magic lost control of a game they led for most of the way. And the Heat did their thing late to close it out.
Orlando has played well since then. But this is a good measuring stick for this team to see just how much it has gotten better.
38. Prediction. 102. 110. 109
3 Keys To Watch
The turnover problems
The Orlando Magic have been a high-turnover team all season, as you might expect from such a young team. The Magic still rank 25th in the league in turnover rate at 15.1 percent (15 turnovers for every 100 possessions). Orlando knows that protecting the ball and valuing possessions is the best way to set up the team’s improving and energetic defense.
That is not what happened against the Miami Heat the last time these two teams faced. The Magic had 20 turnovers in that game, the third most in any game this season. The 20.2-percent turnover rate in that game was the fourth-worst of the season.
But since then, the Magic have been much better at taking care of the ball. If their season average is 15.1 percent, the Orlando Magic have had a below-average turnover rate in just one game since then (a 16.2-percent turnover rate in the win over the Minnesota Timberwolves).
In their last seven games since that loss to the Heat, the Magic have a 12.6-percent turnover rate. That is 10th in the league among teams’ last seven games. This is some significant improvement and a trend the Magic hope will continue.
The 3-point shooting problems
The other part of that coin when dealing with the Miami Heat is 3-point shooting. Neither the Orlando Magic nor the Miami Heat shoot well from deep. It is the biggest problem facing the Magic with the skill level on the roster. Orlando is going through a bit of a prolonged shooting slump.
The Magic are shooting 34.9 percent from deep (21st in the league). In their last 10 games, the Magic are shooting 35.5 percent. So it seems like the swings for the team are wild — going from unable to miss to unable to make on a dime.
That variability is lessened some because Orlando shoots at such low volume (30.7 attempts per game, the fourth fewest in the league). The Magic know they are not a great 3-point shooting team and they do not take a ton of 3-pointers (you can tell when the Magic are having a poor offensive game by how many 3-pointers they settle for).
The Heat are also not a great 3-point shooting team. They actually shoot a worse percentage at 33.5 percent from beyond the arc. They take 34.9 attempts per game which means they may make more 3-pointers.
But against Orlando, Miami made 10 of 33. It was not a huge number, but the Heat made big shots when they had to.
The clutch problem
The Orlando Magic are in the postseason chase. No getting around it or avoiding it. The team is nearing the All-Star Break playing meaningful games and trailing the last spot by three games. Every game is going to matter.
That means we have to pay attention to how the team plays in the clutch. That is why games like Tuesday’s loss to the New York Knicks, which turned on a missed layup from Paolo Banchero and a rushed three from Franz Wagner, feel especially stinging.
Orlando is 11-18 in clutch situations — when games are within five points in the final five minutes. The Magic have played the 17th-most close games. The Magic have done a good job avoiding close games but some of that might well be the amount of blowout losses they suffered in the middle of the season.
To be sure, this is an area where the Magic are going to have to flip their script and steal a few wins to make up ground in the postseason chase.
Next. Bol Bol is finding his groove again. dark
The difference between Orlando and Miami here is stark then. The Heat have the most clutch wins this season, going 22-17 in close situations. This is how the Heat have been able to stay above the play-in fray despite their poor offensive showing this year.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.