The biggest draft debate raging among those paying attention to this part of the process during the conference finals starts at the very top of the draft.
Who are the Orlando Magic going to pick?
That is not an easy question well before we get to the Magic’s typical secrecy over every internal working of the Amway Center. The front office is a tight-knit group and does a good job keeping confidential information confidential.
The top pick in this draft was always going to be a debate — between three very good players in Jabari Smith Jr., Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero. This was not a class with a clear-cut number one player. So the team was always going to have to sit and think about what they want, what wins in the NBA and how to move the team forward.
The national media is still trying to get a handle on what the Magic will do and how that will set up the rest of the draft.
Nobody knows what the Orlando Magic will do with their draft pick at No. 1. The rest of the draft will fall into place after the Magic make this difficult choice.
Reporters from The Athletic asked “rival executives” who the Magic would pick and they seemed to favor Chet Holmgren. ESPN.com’s reporters seem to believe that Jabari Smith Jr. is the pick. If you watched the Orlando Magic’s All-Access from the Draft Lottery, Mike Miller is already putting in a good word for his client Paolo Banchero.
There are good arguments for all three players. There are no wrong answers. Nobody should feel like they have to fight for their prospect — positive arguments only!
But everyone is starting to get into their camps. Everyone does have their favorite and the guy they want the Magic to pick.
The front office still has a ton of time to make those decisions. They will surely have individual meetings with all three of the top prospects. There is still a long way to go.
But we are a week out from the NBA Draft Lottery. We have had the chance now to sit with the top pick for a week. We are all feeling some kind of way.
But the draft order getting finally set also provides the opportunity to do a first run-through the whole draft and assess where the team could be looking to move up and move around.
In other words, with the first pick in tow, it is time to update our mock draft for the first time after the Lottery.
Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 2.0
The First Pick
I am very much on record for being in favor of Paolo Banchero for a number of reasons. I flipped him to number one on my Big Board on Lottery Day and I have been taking him No. 1 in every mock draft exercise I was doing pre-Lottery.
To me, Banchero’s individual scoring ability is still something this Magic team needs. It is an essential aspect of any winning team. And it is something the Magic still need to find.
There is still a long way to go, but I am torn between the scoring potential of Paolo Banchero and the overall versatility of Jabari Smith, Jr. Personally, I flip almost daily and sometimes more frequently between the two.
For everything there is though, I think the Magic and the rest of the NBA world is going to lean toward picking Smith. And this is also not the wrong pick.
The more you watch Smith, the clearer the reasons he makes sense as the pick.
At the end of the day, the Magic value positional versatility, defensive willingness and outside shooting. Smith is the best among the top prospects at all those things. He is a really skilled and able defender already and he is the best shooter among the top prospects — and really in a draft that is seemingly devoid of shooting.
Smith has all the skills the Magic need . . . except for that self-creation.
That is the biggest question surrounding Smith. But it is one he can overcome.
The reason we do not have this information is that Auburn did not run its offense through Smith. Instead, Smith had to rely on getting the ball from inefficient guards. He was reduced to a spot-up shooter. There were plenty of moments where he feasted on smaller guards in the post and set up his shot off the dribble.
There just was not enough of it to be sure about those.
At the very least, Smith is going to be a great 3-and-D wing. Of course, with the first pick, you want more. And the question Smith will have to answer in workouts and interviews is whether he can take that next step.
For now, the mix of his versatility, defensive ability and length, and scoring and shooting potential is enough to make him the prospect with the surest floor and the highest ceiling.
There is no convention in this pick. But there is a reason that perhaps Smith has come out as the betting favorite. He has been that way for a while now. For now, that is where I feel like the Magic are leaning and the pick that I would make under the gun.
Guess it is a good thing I am not making the decision. And that there is a lot of time left.
Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 2.0
The Other Two Options
There really has been no secret the Oklahoma City Thunder like the uniqueness of Chet Holmgren. They are still an amalgamation of random young players on this team and they are still looking for some clearer direction.
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the right rookie running alongside him, the Thunder could get better very quickly. And like the Orlando Magic, Sam Presti loves his long bois. Just look at Josh Giddey running point and Aleksej Pokusevski.
Holmgren is a special prospect. There are not many players of his size with his fluidity and timing. As many questions as there are about Holmgren’s body type and his ability to withstand the pressures and pounding of the NBA, he has the skills to make it through.
Holmgren is a stellar shot blocker and is not afraid of the physicality ahead of him. That attitude will go a long way in helping him overcome those shortcomings.
But what makes him special is his fluidity for his size. He is able to attack off the dribble, pull up in transition and then get to the basket and finish with force.
His body will fill out and so a lot of his weaknesses will shed away as he gets older. Oklahoma City always has the patience to wait.
The Houston Rockets are like the Orlando Magic at the start of their rebuild. They have everything in front of them and only a few pieces they care about. They are working on their building blocks with Jalen Green already in place from last year’s draft.
The chances of pairing two great scorers like Jalen Green and Paolo Banchero together is going to be difficult to pass up.
As mentioned earlier, Banchero is the best pure scorer in this draft. He is the guy a team can dump the ball to and get a basket. And his footwork on the block is exceptionally well.
Banchero is a great scorer and is a better passer than he gets credit for. Banchero is a very complete prospect in a lot of ways.
The questions about his defense and his surrounding skills beyond being a great scorer will be the questions that continually pop up with him.
That is a higher level of questioning for the next phase of a team’s development. His fit with the Rockets alongside Green is certainly a question with two potentially high-usage young players who dominate the ball alongside each other. But that can be a good problem to have at an early stage of a rebuild.
Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 2.0
The Rest of the Top-10
The Sacramento Kings are certainly trying to get out of the Lottery rat race. They have some solid players to do so with De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis as anchors. And the rising Davion Mitchell as a defensive ace. Adding back some scoring and defense in Iowa’s Keegan Murray would help this team most. They have ball-dominant players, they just need the role players — and the defenders — to get them to the next level.
Shaedon Sharpe is the biggest mystery of this draft after sitting out the past year at Kentucky. Undoubtedly he is incredibly talented. He might have been the top pick in this draft if he had played. He was expected to be the top high school recruit if he stayed in the high school class of 2022. Sharpe is a great scorer and would be a good running mate for Cade Cunningham . . . and maybe whatever else the Pistons have planned this offseason.
The Indiana faithful will certainly be happy about keeping a Purdue guy home. Jaden Ivey would be a good addition to the Indiana Pacers as a player who can attack the paint and score at the basket. With their offensive players able to spread the floor, he should have the space to make an impact. It will also ease the blow of the likely trade with Malcolm Brogdon this offseason. Along with having a guard in Tyrese Haliburton to ease any ball-handling concerns.
The Portland Trail Blazers are among the many candidates who are expected to shop this pick. And the Blazers certainly could use some immediate help to get them back to the playoffs and make the most of what remains of Damian Lillard’s prime. The Blazers may be in the running for Jerami Grant in the offseason trade market. But their better option is to add another big defensive wing in Arizona’s Bennedict Mathurin.
The New Orleans Pelicans got a gift in a top-10 pick after the season they had. They need to use this pick to add a bridge and help continue the positive development that kickstarted after they acquired CJ McCollum. Getting a young backup big to bolster their defense in Jalen Duren would be a big boost to the team and prepare them to transition away from the older Jonas Valanciunas. Duren is a solid defender and screen setter who would complement the weapons the Pelicans already have.
The San Antonio Spurs have a lot of nice players. But they are still looking for that big player to tie their whole roster together. They probably will not get it in this draft. But taking a swing on the playmaking forward in Ousmane Dieng would be a decent choice. Dieng is a 6-foot-10 forward with good playmaking skills who finished his season in the NBL really strong.
Dyson Daniels is the best of a fairly weak crop coming out of the G-League Ignite. But going to the Washington Wizards would be a great stroke of luck for him. Having Kristaps Porzingis and Bradley Beal would give him the space to attack and do what he does best in the lane while also giving plenty of playmaking outlets for him to continue to grow.
Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 2.0
The Rest of the Lottery
At one point, Jonny Davis was considered one of the best guards in this draft. He was considered a solid scorer and a great attacker. The end of his season was disappointing because he suddenly became inefficient and Wisconsin struggled to end the season. Davis is a good mid-range scorer and can get into his shot. There is something there to work with.
AJ Griffin is a fairly complete player who will slide in as a solid defender and a decent floor spacer for his team at Duke. It is hard to see him being more than a role player. But in a lot of ways he is as sure a pick as a 3-and-D wing as there is. He will need to become more efficient as a shooter.
It is not clear what the Charlotte Hornets will do to improve their roster after they failed to get out of the Play-In Tournament once again. They moved on from James Borrego and Miles Bridges is a major free agent this offseason who seems likely to move. Tari Eason would be a solid replacement. He does not have the athleticism Bridges has, but Eason does a good job defending and finding his way to the basket. He makes a lot of winning plays.
The Cleveland Cavaliers should be looking for a different type of prospect at this point after they made the Play-In Tournament last year. They need someone who is ready to contribute and play a role. That is where Malaki Branham steps in. He is probably the best shooter remaining at this level of the draft and should be able to space the floor for the Cavaliers.
Mark Williams was by far the winner of the NBA Draft Lottery. His measurements stood out as he recorded the longest wingspan at the Combine (no, Chet Holmgren did not get measured). Williams deserves this spot even beyond his measurements. He was a great rim protector and low-post defender for Duke last year. His play certainly stood out.
TyTy Washington is a dynamic guard with a scoring knack and flair who would pair very well as an attacker behind Trae Young in Atlanta. The Atlanta Hawks need a secondary creator and attacker and Washington would give them someone off the bench who can keep pressure on the defense.
Do not sleep on upperclassmen. Ochai Ogbaji was a key part of Kansas’ run to the national championship. He is a solid scorer and a good defender. He will fit right in with whatever team drafts him. And the only doubts about him seem to go with his age.
The Chicago Bulls need health more than anything else to make good on the promise they showed last year. But it still feels like an offseason of change is on the way. The Bulls have to find a way to double down on what worked. That might include trading this pick — especially knowing they will not have next year’s pick thanks to their trade with the Orlando Magic. And, again, the Bulls are still worried about keeping Zach LaVine.
That probably means the team takes the best player available or someone that can help the roster they envision having by the end of the season.
Jeremy Sochan is certainly that player. A capable wing defender who showed improvements to his offensive ability. His success in the NBA will depend on his continued development as a shooter. But Sochan fits the profile of defender this team likes.
Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 2.0
Trade-Up Targets
The Orlando Magic are in a really unique position. They have a player that should have some value as a veteran bench player in Terrence Ross who would provide an instant boost to a playoff team. They also have the Nos. 32 and 35 picks as an enticement to move up, especially for teams looking to create some cap room either immediately or for the summer of 2023.
Orlando has the ability to move around. Finding the right player to trade up for (and perhaps the right big contract to take on in exchange for Ross) is going to be a tricky thing.
These are a few players and a few teams the Magic could target. This is about the range the Magic could look to trade up to:
Jalen Williams was one of the big risers at the NBA Draft Combine. It is not just his wingspan that turned heads. He has a nice, complete game that can get his way into the lane and finish around the basket. He had good showings against Gonzaga too, making it seem like he can get to the next level.
Williams had a breakout year last year, averaging 18.0 points per game and 4.2 assists per game while shooting 51.3-percent from the field and 39.6-percent from beyond the arc.
Those are all the ingredients for a solid guard on the perimeter. Especially coming off the bench. And the kind of player you trade up and for and invest in.
Terquavion Smith is one of the more intriguing scorers in this draft class. He averaged 16.3 points per game while shooting 36.9-percent from deep and 39.8-percent from the floor overall.
Smith has good size and can get into the lane, but his efficiency will be a huge question moving forward. And the Combine did not help — he played one game, scoring an inefficient 17 points and then sat out the remaining games.
Smith has the size the NBA likes. The question is how he puts all those skills together and finds his role.
E.J. Liddell was a two-time All-Big Ten player and a Big Ten Defensive team player. That is music to a Denver Nuggets team that is still chasing size and consistent defense, especially as some of their guards return from injury. Without many guards to chase, grabbing a good wing defender like Liddell will help.
Christian Braun is starting to make his way around the workout circuit and is starting to make some noise. He was a solid shooter for the national champion Jayhawks, but his defense really stood out at Kansas. And that will make him a great fit for a contending team.
Kennedy Chandler is a quick scoring guard with some good athleticism and explosion to finish at the rim and some growing playmaking chops. He can shoot a little bit too which should increase his value. The Brooklyn Nets probably have a lot more pressure to hit on this pick and get some cheap players in especially with Kyrie Irving’s uncertain future.
The biggest need for the Orlando Magic this offseason (or immediate if not biggest) is to find a backup center. So there should be some attention put to Auburn center Walker Kessler.
Outside of Chet Holmgren, no one was as impressive as a shot blocker in the college ranks than Walker Kessler. He averaged 11.4 points per game and 8.1 rebounds per game with 4.6 blocks per game. He was a monster on the interior gulping up rebounds and tracking down boards.
Kessler is very limited offensively. He is not a great shooter and will have to be satisfied with clean up duty. But that rim protection is hard to find.
Nikola Jovic is one of the more intriguing prospects in this draft class. Figuring out what to do with him and whether he is someone to invest in will be a challenge. But he is definitely one of my players to keep an eye on.
Jovic is a 6-foot-10 forward who has good shooting form and good playmaking instincts. He can attack off the dribble well and beat up smaller defenders. This is what the modern forward looks like.
Jovic just plays zero defense. And his translation to the NBA is still a question. But the natural talent and ability are all there for him to grow and develop from.
Keep an eye too on Jake LaRavia. He measured well at the NBA Draft Combine and he is a player who will find a way to stick in the league. He is someone that I think teams will clamor for if he becomes available or creates some demand.
LaRavia averaged 14.6 points per game and 6.6 rebounds per game after transferring to Wake Forest. He was an all-Missouri Valley Conference player at Indiana State before becoming all-ACC at Wake Forest.
But what always stands out about his play is his hustle. The dude gets after it and plays hard. He defends well. And while there are still a lot of parts of his game to round out, he seems like a player who can make an impact.
Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 2.0
The Rest of the First Round
Florida Gators fans will be familiar with Andrew Nembhard. He was a hard worker and a good defender with some bravado and swagger as a guard. He became a rock for Gonzaga these last two years after transferring to the powerhouse program. Nembhard will fit in somewhere. He will stick if his shooting and decision-making improve.
Trevor Keels was a streaky shooter for Duke. But he could get really hot and change games. On top of this, he is a solid and switchable defender. Someone who would thrive in the Golden State Warriors’ ecosystem.
Kendall Brown has all the size and makings of an NBA-caliber player. But he still has a lot of work to do to fill out the gaps in his game. He has to become a better shooter and a better scorer to make it to the next level.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are almost certainly the kind of team to take a chance on the high-upside of Patrick Baldwin Jr. Baldwin entered the year as one of the top high school prospects but struggled with injuries and inefficiency in his lone year at Milwaukee.
Bryce McGowens has really good size at guard at 6-foot-7 and he can fill up a box score. Learning how to be efficient and play a role will be a challenge for the Nebraska guard.
If the Orlando Magic take the second-round pick, there is certainly an argument that they should take a big swing with one of them. Even if it means asking the player to defer a year in the G-League, if that is what it takes.
Jaden Hardy entered the G-League Ignite this past year as its top prospect. He struggled with efficiency throughout the course of his time in the G-League. But the talent is undoubtedly there.
It would suck to give him another year in the G-League, but he might need it. The chance of that hitting is a big one though.
Dalen Terry is an intriguing prospect. He has good size at 6-foot-7 and is a decent shooter. He still has to show some consistency but he is knocking on the door of the first round.
MarJon Beauchamp had some good showings for the G-League Ignite and might have been the best G-League player from the Rising Stars games. Beauchamp is about getting in the lane and he has to improve his 3-point shot to make good on his vast potential.
Jaylin Williams is a 6-foot-10 center who has good size and mobility but is still looking to put all the pieces together. He was a decent but not great shot blocker and rebounder and averaged 10.9 points per game. His offense was really limited.
But he was an All-SEC defensive player and was one of the best players in the NCAA Tournament, helping Arkansas put a little scare into Duke in their game in the Sweet Sixteen.