Orlando Magic Daily 2022 NBA Draft Big Board 2.0: Time to consider needs

The big day is finally here.

The NBA scouts have convened in Chicago to get an early look at some prospects participating in the G-League Elite Camp. The NBA Draft Combine kicks off this week.

But the big event remains the NBA Draft Lottery. A lot of the draft storylines and draft intrigue gets set up when the order of the first 14 picks actually gets set.

For the Orlando Magic, they are eager just to see where this important piece to their puzzle will fall.

The long-awaited NBA Draft Lottery is here. So we are taking a look at the Orlando Magic’s needs as we compile our latest Big Board.

The Magic like the young group they have and how they are building. But they still need to add to the team. More specifically, the Magic need some top-end talent to help build the team around and help this team grow.

One way or another, Orlando will have a clearer idea of what the team can accomplish and how best to improve the team based on where it lands in the NBA Draft Lottery. And, of course, the play the Magic ultimately takes in the draft in a month.

There is a lot riding on the Lottery, as there is always for the teams with the best odds to win the Lottery. Those teams usually need luck the most.

Orlando could certainly use some. The team has not won a pick determined y the Lottery since 2013 when they drafted Victor Oladipo second and have not improved their lottery position since taking Chris Webber with the first pick in 1993.

This is also the time when teams start to refine their boards. They start to really hone in on the players they actually want to take. And with the draft order set, they can start to figure out the players they want to chase and where they might have to go to get them.

It is draft season again!

So with the Lottery set to take place tonight, it is time to reset our Big Board. In our last Big Board, we evaluated the prospects at the end of the college basketball season.

There have not been any games played since. But there has been time to ponder what the Orlando Magic need from their draft picks. So that is what we will do here.

Talent is still king. And the Magic’s top needs are still to find the most talented player possible — any team drafting near the top of the draft should probably put some focus on talent ahead of anything else. But a way to separate players of similar talent is to look at what actually fits the Magic’s team needs.

Orlando has a roster full of promising young players. And certainly part of the work this coming offseason is to figure out how to make those players fit into a coherent team they can build and grow with.

With that in mind, it is time to re-rank the prospects, taking a special look at the players who fit the Magic’s needs.

2022 Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 2.0

The debate at the top

This is probably where I have personally had my biggest change in how I viewed the draft. In our last Big Board I had Auburn forward Jabari Smith as my No. 1 player, and that has been the convention for a while across the web. It is hard to argue (we will get to him).

But every time I have done a mock draft exercise, I keep turning back to Paolo Banchero. I just have fewer questions about him to fill the biggest need the Orlando Magic have.

That need? A guy who can just get a bucket. A guy the team can dump the ball to and create a basket for himself or others.

When you watch the teams remaining in the playoffs, they are centered around wings who can create shots for themselves and create for others.

Banchero has a bit of a ways to go to create for others — he averaged 3.2 assists per game — and he still has to show more imporvement as a 3-point shooter — he made 33.8-percent of his 3-pointers.

Then again, Jayson Tatum averaged 2.1 assists per game and shot 34.2-percent from deep in his lone year at Duke. Banchero is going to benefit a lot from NBA spacing just like Tatum did.

But the Magic are desperate for a guy they can center their offense around. They need a scorer on the pivot or off the bounce who can just create. To me, there is no player in this draft that screams star skills or capabilities.

The Magic need a player they can center their offense around. And to me, that player is Banchero. So I have him No. 1 on my board.

That should take nothing away from Jabari Smith. He drops a spot because of the Orlando Magic’s need for a creator and isolation scorer, someone who can break down defenses and create a shot from nothing. There is still some indication Smith can be the guy. He just was not able to do that in Auburn, for various reasons.

Smith represents the other big need for the Magic: Shooting.

Smith has the size the Magic love at 6-foot-10. He has length for his position and the athleticism to be a good defender — 2.3 win shares and a +3.8 defensive box plus-minus according to Sports-Reference. And he is a fantastic shooter.

Smith made 42.0-percent of his 3-pointers on 5.5 attempts per game. He is as good of a shooter as anyone in this draft. And the playoffs have shown just how vital shooting is (the Milwaukee Bucks’ playoff lessons post is coming).

I have taken to comparing Jabari Smith to Rashard Lewis.

He has the athleticism to finish at the rim like Sonics Lewis with the shooting of Magic Lewis. That is one heck of a player.

If the Magic — or anyone — make him the first overall pick, there is nothing wrong with that decision. Smith has all the tools to be a really good player. The question remains — and this is partially the fault of Auburn’s guards — we never got to see him be “the man” at Auburn.

At the end of close games, Duke turned to Paolo Banchero to finish. Auburn seemed to let Smith fade into the background.

2022 Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 2.0

The Big Mystery

At this point, you either like Chet Holmgren or you do not.

The pluses are apparent. He has great timing as a shot blocker. He has incredible fluidity and athleticism for a 7-footer. He got better as he got more comfortable at the college ranks, finishing the season strong to lead Gonzaga deep into the NCAA tournament.

The minuses are also apparent. He is rail-thin listed at 190 pounds with some concern he will not be able to put on the weight needed to take the banging in the NBA. While he is certainly not afraid of contact, he gets bumped and pushed off the block. There are a lot of questions about just where his game could flourish.

The good news for Holmgren is that there is a growing trend of teams going with two-big lineups again. The pendulum seems to be swinging the other way on it. The only players who seem to get played off the floor in the playoffs are players who lack versatility to hang on the perimeter or are too slow-footed to track back.

Holmgren has a place in the NBA. The question is just how good he can be.

That makes the Orlando Magic such an intriguing fit.

They spent the whole year playing Wendell Carter and Mo Bamba together to some success. It was ultimately a negative net rating of -5.5 points per 100 possessions. But for a team that struggled as much as the Magic, that number is not so bad (not that it is good).

The whole thing seemed to be proof of concept if the Magic do draft Holmgren. And it is important to note how much Carter succeeded with a shot-blocking big behind him and with the ability to play against power forwards on offense.

Carter would be able to take the bigger centers that Holmgren cannot defend yet and both would be able to space the floor.

Holmgren makes sense in Orlando because the team would not have to change a lot of how it plays. The question the Magic would have to answer is whether Holmgren is better than Bamba. Most fans would probably answer: Yes.

2022 Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 2.0

Guarded

Slowly but surely, everyone is starting to get to know who Shaedon Sharpe is.

No one would blame casual fans for asking who is this guy that is getting ranked so high apparently from a college but did not play at all last season. Sharpe’s situation was certainly a bizarre one — although you cannot blame the guy for being overeager, it is the stupid NCAA that cannot seem to get things straight.

What is becoming apparent is that NBA scouts have seen and studied enough to make him one of the top picks in the draft. The initial notion that he would return to Kentucky appears to be going by the wayside.

Sharpe held his first workout through his agency Monday at the NBA Draft Combine. Yes, you will spot Jeff Weltman and John Hammond front and center in the front row:

Sharpe is a powerful leaper, as the workout video shows. But he can get up quickly in traffic and finish off two-foot jumps after rebounds too. He also has NBA range already.

At 6-foot-6, Sharpe should have some versatility to spare. The question is whether the year away from playing competitive games will help or hurt him and how quickly he can get back up to game speed.

Still, there are a lot of people who believe Sharpe would have been the top pick in this draft if he had played. And for all the same reasons the Magic need a guy like Banchero, if one of those top three guys are gone, Sharpe is consistently the pick.

Orlando needs a wing who can break down defenses and score at multiple levels badly.

I continue to flip-flop as the last guy in this top tier for the NBA Draft.

I will stick with Jaden Ivey as a way to continue the theme of the Magic’s biggest needs.

That is indeed the tension of needs the Magic will have: What is more important for the team? Shooting or finding their star to direct the team?

If the answer is shooting then Iowa’s Keegan Murray should be here. But I think it is also abundantly clear the Magic need that star to center their offense around. That will help all the other role players fill in.

I am admittedly lower on Jaden Ivey than everyone else. He is a dynamic finisher at the rim and a great scorer. But he struggles at times to hit shots from all three levels and is not a great playmaker or passer.

If the Magic land at five and their option is Ivey, I might still go with Murray over him.

The biggest concern with Ivey and the Magic is fit. The Magic still seem very invested in Markelle Fultz as their starting point guard. He has at least earned an opportunity to see how far he can take it. And they just drafted Jalen Suggs, who at least deserves the chance to grow from his rookie year.

That makes it hard to see the Magic taking a high-usage guard like Ivey unless there are some major changes in store. Then again, talent should win at this stage.

2022 Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 2.0

Other Candidates

My personal search for a player who can both play a role as a 3-point shooter with the potential to be a scorer and creator — a star — is what has me flipping Bennedict Mathurin to sixth on my board this time around.

Mathurin is an improving shooter and scorer who is already a solid defender. His big breakout game in the NCAA Tournament at least hints at his ability to be a primary scorer on the team. But he at least should measure out as a 3-and-D wing at minimum.

That kind of protection will be valuable for a team like the Magic who is looking to fill in their roster and find the right players to build around.

Mathurin averaged 17.7 points per game and 5.6 rebounds per game last year for Arizona, shooting 45.0-percent overall and 36.9-percent from deep as his usage increased. He accumulated 2.2 defensive win shares and a +1.9 defensive box plus-minus according to Sports-Reference.

Mathurin still has a long way to go to get where he wants to be. But it is clear what his upside can be.

Keegan Murray might be the sleeper among all these players. And concerns about his age — he will be 22 in August — are perhaps a bit overblown.

Murray had a breakout season last year, averaging 23.5 points per game and 8.7 rebounds per game with 39.8-percent shooting from beyond the arc. That has all the makings of everything the Magic need.

Murray projects as a solid shooter at the very least. And there is nothing the Magic need more — the Magic were 28th in 3-point field goal percentage this year and 11th in attempts per game. Shooting has been a sore spot since Dwight Howard left a decade ago. And it is clear how important shooting is to success in the playoffs.

That will keep Murray on their radar, even if he may have less upside than others on this list.

Murray will find a place to fit. That is what shooters find in this league. And that is why he remains so highly touted.

2022 Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 2.0

Other Lottery Options

AJ Griffin is perhaps the do-it-all forward of this draft. He is a solid shooter and defender. My concern is that he does not do a whole lot more. I find it hard to see him breaking out beyond that. But still a solid 3-and-D player is a good thing to have.

Dyson Daniels is the best of the bunch in the G-League Ignite. It is not a super impressive bunch overall. But Daniels is a 6-foot-6 forward who averaged 11.9 points per game. He shot 45.9-percent from the floor and 34.7-percent from beyond the arc.

Ousmane Dieng is quickly rising the ranks and is the best international prospect in the draft. Dieng was essentially a point forward for the New Zealand Breakers, averaging 8.9 points per game for the season but bumping up to 14.3 points per game in his final six games.

Jalen Duren is a big-bodied center who will fit in well as a backup big at a minimum. He should be able to move his body around and provide some energy around the basket. His offensive skills are still very rudimentary and there are questions of whether he can provide the perimeter defense that centers are increasingly being asked to give.

Ochai Agbaji is just a solid all-around player who should be able to come in and fill a role immediately as a veteran wing off the bench. Agbaji should look to continue improving his 3-point shot, but his defense will get him in quickly.

Johnny Davis looked like one of the breakout players early in the season. He was a scorer who was crafty and did not overly rely on his athleticism to score. But he struggled mightily as the season closed and his shooting was nowhere near good enough to make up for that slip.

Jeremy Sochan has been a big riser of late. The solid forward averaged 9.2 points per game and 6.4 rebounds per game. Sochan just projects as a solid traditional power forward who will provide some toughness. His ability to improve his shooting will determine how far he goes in the NBA.

Tari Eason is similar to Jeremy Sochan. He is more of a traditional power forward. He is a more consistent and reliable scorer and has shown some 3-point ability. But at 6-foot-8, he will have to become better at playing on the perimeter.

TyTy Washington was the driving force for a pretty good Kentucky team, averaging 12.5 points per game and 3.9 rebounds per game. He does not project more than as a spark plug coming off the bench.

2022 Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 2.0

Trade-Up Targets

Malaki Branham is going to be a really intriguing prospect. And he may not make it this far down the board the next time we convene for this. He has all the skills to be a solid shooter coming off the bench.

Branham averaged 13.7 points per game while shooting 41.6-percent from beyond the arc. If he has some good shooting showings, he will surely shoot up draft boards. His volume was just really low from beyond the arc to make everyone feel comfortable.

Branham did win the Big Ten’s Rookie of the Year Award and was an All-Big Ten player. So it is hard to completely ignore him.

Mark Williams is a solid traditional center. He knows how to use his size well and will block shots and be a presence in the paint.

Nikola Jovic is one of the most intriguing prospects in the draft. And it will be interesting to see just how NBA scouts ultimately see him.

Jovic is a 6-foot-10 forward who can do it all offensively. He hits threes pretty well and can work off the dribble. He has enough size and mobility to be a factor for whatever team drafts him.

His biggest drawback is his defense. He is not particularly strong on that end and has shown a lack of understanding and awareness. Getting that part of his game to round into form could make him a big-time prospect in this draft pool.

This year’s G-League Ignite group is nowhere near as good as last year’s group was. Beauchamp averaged 15.1 points per game and shot 45.9-percent from the floor and 10 for 33 overall from three.

Beauchamp is a really athletic player and can finish around the rim. But his lack of 3-point shooting will be the thing holding him back — isn’t it for everyone? That is something this draft really lacks toward the back end of the first round and could make it hard for the Orlando Magic to find someone to trade up for.

Beauchamp is a high-level prospect who struggled in his first exposure to the pro game. That could be something worth investing further in.

Before the draft, Patrick Baldwin Jr. was considered a surefire Lottery pick, if not a top-10 pick. His poor season — 12.1 points per game, 34.4-percent shooting — has changed a lot of opinions of him. He dropped like a rock. And there is a decent chance he returns to school.

But that talent does not go away completely. Baldwin has NBA size and fluidity. He is capable of creating and making his own shot. He just needs to prove and show that he can do it at a higher level.

Baldwin will need some seasoning to recover what was lost this season. it might be better for him to return to school and figure out how to make himself fit into a role better. But Baldwin is undoubtedly a talented player who deserves a good look.

E.J. Liddell could be an interesting option for a team looking for the undersized, tough power forwards who have started to make their way through the league. Liddell is listed at 6-foot-7 but he has the ability to play both forward positions decently well.

Liddell averaged 19.4 points per game and 7.9 rebounds per game last year. It is hard to ignore those numbers. He made 49.0-percent of his shots and 37.4-percent of his 3-pointers, increasing his percentages in each of his three years at Ohio State. He was also All-Big Ten Defensive Team last year, a pretty strong endorsement of his defense.

That is someone who can find a place in the league if those shooting numbers continue to grow. It is just more about finding the position he can play once he gets into the league.

Kennedy Chandler is another undersized guard who is looking for his place as he graduates to the next level. he averaged 13.9 points per game and 4.7 assists per game while shooting 38.3-percent from beyond the arc. There is something there to build with for the freshman who was named the SEC Tournament MVP.

2022 Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 2.0

Rounding out the first round

Walker Kessler was a shot-blocking behemoth at Auburn, setting the tone for Auburn’s defense with 4.6 blocks per game last year. The next part is figuring out if he can do that on an NBA floor where his lack of athleticism and lateral quickness may hurt him.

I personally do not really know where to put Jaden Hardy. In some respects, he was the most highly touted prospect to join the G-League Ignite this year. But he also disappointed immensely — 21.2 points per game during the G-League Ignite’s tour with 39.7-percent shooting overall and 33.6-percent shooting from deep.

Trevor Keels did a really good job filling in his role for the Duke Blue Devils this year despite some inconsistent shooting. When he got hot though, Duke was nearly impossible to stop. And he provides plenty of defensive potential as he figures out his shooting.

Expect David Roddey’s name to climb as he starts doing more workouts. The big guard from Colorado State averaged 19.2 points per game and 7.5 rebounds per game while shooting 43.8-percent from beyond the arc. His 69.1-percent free throw percentage will raise some doubts that his shooting can translate.

Ismael Kamagate is the next long-limbed French center. He finishes around the rim with thunder and has good hands to make catches. It is just about putting the physical tools together more consistently.

Blake Wesley averaged 14.4 points per game last year. His poor shooting — 30.3-percent — is what will hold him back in this draft.

Terquavion Smith has the numbers to make it in the NBA after averaging 16.3 points per game and shooting a 50.3-percent effective field goal percentage. But his poor free throw shooting will leave everyone wondering whether he can translate to the NBA. And whether he can move himself off the ball.

Winning should matter for something. So it is a bit surprising to see so few players from the Kansas Jayhawks. Christian Braun will have a chance to build on a strong finish to the season, where he averaged 14.1 points per game and 6.5 rebounds per game while shooting 38.6-percent from the floor for the season and 11.2 points per game and 7.3 rebounds per game on 44.4-percent shooting during the NCAA Tournament.

Jake LaRavia stepped in to Wake Forest as a transfer and gave the burgeoning young team a huge boost, averaging 14.6 points per game and 6.6 rebounds per game. He shot 38.4-percent from beyond the arc overall and gave the team good defense. He may be a player a lot of people are sleeping on at this part of the draft process.

The next time we hit draft coverage will be our first mock draft after the final draft order is set. We will see you then!