The confetti has now long been cleared from the makeshift (and maybe not entirely put-together) floor at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The Kansas Jayhawks are celebrating their national championship, a well-earned victory for that team that quietly just played well all season.
The NCAA Tournament is never the end-all, be-all for the college prospects entering the NBA Draft. It might be their final statement before their seasons close and it might be the most visibility they get to the wider NBA-watching audience.
The NCAA Tournament certainly leaves a taste in everyone’s mouth as they prepare for and get into the offseason. It is the last impression everyone gets.
With the NCAA Tournament completed, the Orlando Magic and the other teams will be cleaning up their draft boards ahead of the Combine in May.
The next phase of the draft process will begin in late May. Teams are probably already consolidating whatever information they have. But they will be allowed to make contact with players and their representatives in May around the time of the NBA Draft Lottery and NBA Draft Combine on May 17.
The Orlando Magic have done their work there already. The team has guaranteed itself a top-6 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft by virtue of having one of the two worst records in the league. That also means they will have a 14.0-percent chance of winning the top pick and a 52.1-percent chance of getting a top-4 pick on Lottery day.
With the NCAA Tournament over then, our big board is due for a quick refresher. It is hard not to feel impacted a little bit by what happened in the tournament. And with a closer eye on some of the prospects we were able to watch at the NCAA Tournament, we have made a few changes.
We will come back and update the board again when we get closer to the NBA Draft Lottery and look more specifically at the Magic’s needs on that board.
NCAA Tournament (2 games): 15.0 PPG, 14.5 RPG, 31.0% FG%, 33.3% 3FG%
Jabari Smith did not have the best offensive showing in the NCAA Tournament, including scoring just 10 points and making just one of his eight 3-point shots in the second-round loss to Miami. But Smith still seems like the most complete player in the draft class and his body of work speaks for itself.
Auburn did not have proficient guard play and they seemingly went away from Smith during critical moments of the loss to Miami. He is still probably the best shooter among the top prospects and has both the highest floor of any of those players in addition to a high ceiling.
Still, his NCAA Tournament performance will do nothing to solidify his spot as the No. 1 overall pick and likely opened things up to lots of debate over the next few months.
Orlando Magic 2022 NBA Draft Big Board 1.5
Changes at the top
NCAA Tournament (5 games): 18.8 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 50.0% FG%, 52.6% 3FG%
When people think of the No. 1 overall pick, they likely think of a player who is a surefire star. Someone who gets the ball late in games and hits the game-winning shot. Someone who can isolate and create for himself and get a basket when the team needs it.
Paolo Banchero is the player most set up to be that kind of player. And throughout the NCAA Tournament he proved to be the guy Duke turned to (or should have turned to) throughout the tournament.
He did not score fewer than 16 points in any game in the tournament and was efficient and effective scoring from all three levels. There is probably not a better offensive player or scorer in this draft. And Banchero has the physical tools to be that guy.
Not to mention now the tape that shows he can play that role too.
The biggest question remains whether he can stay engaged defensively and if his 3-point shooting can translate to the NBA. But Banchero is the one guy in this draft who has the makings and the look of that lead player everyone covets.
NCAA Tournament (3 games): 13.0 PPG, 13.3 RPG, 4.3 BPG, 58.6% FG%
Everyone better be prepared for two months of debate about Chet Holmgren. It is already a debate that is dividing Orlando Magic fans who are perhaps still a bit gun shy and scarred from the inconsistency of the Mo Bamba experience. It is hard not to draw that comparison between the two shot-blocking, shooting, rail-thin big men. Even if there is a clear difference.
Holmgren did little to convince anyone of anything they did not already believe during the tournament. He is still a great rim protector and a completely unique offensive player. But he is also still easily outmatched physically and proved to be very foul-prone throughout the tournament.
It was sort of an “as you were” tournament for him. And nobody still has any idea how he will ultimately react to playing in the NBA — although certainly better teammates and more spacing will help him.
For now, there are a lot of questions to answer and Paolo Banchero seems to have less of them after a stellar tournament run.
NCAA Tournament (1 game): 21 points, 9 rebounds, 53.3% FG%
Keegan Murray’s stay in the NCAA Tournament was incredibly brief as Richmond shocked Iowa in the first round. Some thought there might have been some physical and emotional fatigue after Iowa ran through the Big Ten Tournament for the title, of which Keegan Murray was a big part.
Still, Murray put on a strong showing even in defeat in the first round scoring 21 points and grabbing nine rebounds. Showing that he can make an impact on the game even without hitting shots from the outside.
Keegan Murray does not have the explosive scoring ability of Jaden Ivey, but he has a lot better downside as a shooter and defender, not to mention all the measurables and defense the Orlando Magic like.
NCAA Tournament (3 games): 16.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 43.8% FG%, 37.5% 3FG%
No one will deny that Jaden Ivey has some explosive scoring ability. He can get to the basket and finish with authority at the rim and hit tough shots off the dribble. No one will deny that he might be the best off-the-dribble player in this draft class.
The question has become what else can he do? And the questions are growing louder as he got progressively worse with each NCAA Tournament game, finishing with just nine points in the Sweet 16 loss to St. Peter’s. That game was begging for Ivey to take over and it just never happened.
The question with Ivey then is a debate of whether you believe he can be a star. If he is not the ball-dominant star he was at Purdue, then he becomes a poor passing and questionable shooting guard. That downside might be enough to scare teams away and make the same move on the big board that I have made.
Or he could hit and be the next coming of Ja Morant.
Orlando Magic 2022 NBA Draft Big Board 1.5
Sorting the rest
NCAA Tournament (3 games): 21.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 37.3% FG%
Bennedict Mathurin probably had the best individual game of the NCAA Tournament when he scored 30 points in a second-round overtime win over TCU. He was dynamic closing that game out and putting the finishing touches on the game.
Mathurin is still an imperfect player. But he has good size and a solid body that should fit the NBA. He is a good shooter and a potentially good defender. Mathurin is easily one of the most intriguing guards in this draft class.
The fact Shaedon Sharpe has not played all year as Kentucky held him out over potential eligibility issues and the fact this is largely considered a week draft has only added to the intrigue for this guard. Sharpe, by all accounts, has the talent to be the top overall pick. He just has not played for a year. Absence is only making the intrigue about him bigger.
NCAA Tournament: 8.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 31.8% FG%
Jalen Duren is as good as traditional bigs get in the NBA these days. He is a bulldozer in the paint who will defend the paint. Think of him as a perfect energy big off the bench — like a Montrezl Harrell type. He did a good job challenging Chet Holmgren physically in Memphis’ second-round matchup against Gonzaga.
Do not expect a ton of scoring from Duren. It is at this point in the draft that things really drop off (something the Orlando Magic may not have to worry about) and teams will be looking for solid role players. Duren should be a solid big to throw in off the bench and lock down the paint.
NCAA Tournament (6 games): 13.7 PPG, 42.3% 3FG%
There is still a current of people who will tell you that seniors have little to give the NBA. And it is true, they may be topped off or near the top of their potential. If that is the case, then Ochai Agbaji is pretty good. And he already looks like he could fill a role as a 3-and-D win on a good team. It feels like whichever Lottery team drafts Agbaji is going to get the piece they need to make a playoff run.
Some credit has to go to the guy who won the NCAA Tournament’s most outstanding player. He had a big shooting game to beat Villanova in the Final Four. But his defense was good throughout. And this is the kind of guy who gives the same effort no matter if his shot is going down. Put him in the right position, and he is going to find his place.
NCAA Tournament (5 games): 10.4 PPG, 33.3% 3FG%
AJ Griffin had a lot of buzz entering the draft as the do-everything, 3-and-D wing. Then he sort of laid an egg in the NCAA Tournament. Save for 18 points in the Elite Eight against Arkansas, Griffin was fairly underwhelming. Duke definitely missed him in the Final Four loss to North Carolina.
Griffin still has solid defense and 3-point shooting to lean on. But it did not emerge well in the NCAA Tournament run for the Blue Devils.
Orlando Magic 2022 NBA Draft Big Board 1.5
Other Names to watch
NCAA Tournament (2 games): 21.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 33.3% FG%, 23.5% 3FG%
Johnny Davis did little to put criticisms from the season to rest during the tournament. He poured in a lot of points but did not do so efficiently. Davis really had a rough close to the season. Some time off to get healthy may help. But this was a poor finish for him.
NCAA Tournament (1 game): 18 points, 4 rebounds, 5/9 FGs
Tari Eason was not the first option for LSU, but when he got the ball, he made things happen. The NBA will value his versatility and his energy as he gets prepared for the league. Do not be surprised if this is the player who generates a ton of buzz this offseason.
NCAA Tournament (2 games): 15.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 43.5% FG%
Jeremy Sochan has been gaining a lot of traction among draft experts in the last few weeks as he has shot up draft boards at least among the media. He is a solid forward who can work well around the basket and had a great showing in the NCAA Tournament where he made shots and rebounded well. That improvement in pressure games certainly raised everyone’s eyebrows.
No update on Jaden Hardy as the G-League Ignite season finished. He is a guard with good burst and scoring ability but lacked any kind of efficiency in getting there.
Players to watch for the second-round pick
The Orlando Magic have not used their second-round picks well under Jeff Weltman. He has essentially sold them all off. A lot of that has to do with how crowded the roster is. But Orlando will again have a high second-round pick and a chance to add some first-round caliber talent.
Here are a few names to keep an eye on:
Walker Kessler, Auburn: Great shot blocker and rebounder from Auburn. He is a likely end of the first round list because of his offensive limitations and lack of mobility.
MarJon Beauchamp, G-League Ignite: None of the G-League Ignite guys really stood out. Beauchamp was solid averaging 15.1 points per game during the G-League Ignite Tour and the G-League Showcase, but struggled with his outside shooting.
Patrick Baldwin Jr., UW-Milwaukee: Before the season, Patrick Baldwin Jr. was considered a Lottery-caliber pick. He had a bad season to say the least (12.1 points per game on 34.4-percent shooting). But that talent still has to be there, right?
Nikola Jovic, Mega Mozart: This is a fairly weak class of international prospects. Nikola Jovic might be the best one, averaging 11.7 points per game in teh Adriatic League.
Trevor Keels, Duke: Trevor Keels put atogether a solid season for Duke this year and really shined in the Tournament as the team’s defensive ace.
We will be back to update our big board as we get closer to the NBA Draft. The NBA Draft Lottery is scheduled for May 17.