The Orlando Magic have long settled into having one of the worst records in the league. The team has been bouncing between the worst record in the league and the second-worst record in the league for about a month now, and that is even with this relative surge of winning of late.
It is safe to say much of this season has been about growth and development on the floor for the team’s young players, but also about setting up the team’s future. And part of setting up that future is undoubtedly about being in a good position for the Draft Lottery.
For the second straight year, Orlando seems to be in line to have the top odds to win the NBA Draft Lottery. And for a rebuilding team, the Magic certainly need to get another hit in the draft to help the team begin to inch forward.
To be sure, the Magic should hope this is the last year they are in this situation.
The NBA Draft hits a big point in the evaluation period as players get their last chance to impress at the NCAA Tournament. It’s time to assemble the Orlando Magic’s big board.
That is even with this upcoming NBA Draft largely viewed as a good but not franchise-changing draft. The players at the top are all capable players with All-Star potential. But this is not seen as a deep draft like the 2021 Draft was or a potentially franchise-changing one.
Still, there are good players to get. And this is the time many NBA fans turn their attention to the college prospects with the NCAA tournament set to take place.
It seems like a good time to take a look at the draft prospects in a more formal way.
So to get you ready for the NBA Draft and the NCAA Tournament, it is time to come out with our first big board of the draft season.
This board is a mix of my evaluation of the player along with how they would ultimately fit with the Magic:
NCAA Tournament First Round: vs. Jacksonville State (Fri., 12:40 p.m.)
Nobody probably had Jabari Smith as the No. 1 pick at the beginning of the season. Nobody probably thought there would be much of a debate for the top spot. But while there is still certainly some debate between who is the top prospect, it is also pretty clear that Smith is nudging ahead.
To me, Smith is the clear-cut top guy in this draft. He offers the most complete package in the Draft and someone who can clearly both fit in and create offense for any team that drafts him.
Smith averaged 17.1 points per game and grabbed 7.0 rebounds per game. He shot 42.8-percent on 3-pointers and 81.6-percent from the foul line. He projects as a skilled shooter — gaining player comparisons to Orlando Magic legend Rashard Lewis with his 6-foot-10 frame.
He had some explosive games too, scoring 20 or more points 13 times this season including five games of 25 points or more.
He also stands out defensively where his fluid movement enables him to lock in on opponents both in the post and on the perimeter.
The concern, if there is one, is that he may not be the best player at creating his own shot consistently. He might top out as a perfect complementary or secondary player on a good team. That is not exactly screaming No. 1 overall pick.
But Smith is a very good player. He is fairly complete and should be able to contribute on both ends at the very least.
Orlando Magic 2022 NBA Draft Big Board
The rest of the best
The way this NBA Draft has shaken out, it looks like there is a clear four players who have separated themselves from the rest of the group. Opinions on those four will vary and it appears that most consider Jabari Smith and Chet Holmgren to be the best two in the draft.
But there is a clear four. And the teams that do end up winning the NBA Draft Lottery are going to feel very good about the potential of the players they are picking.
NCAA Tournament First Round: vs. Georgia State (Thurs., 4:15 p.m.)
Chet Holmgren has been a fascination for NBA scouts for a long time. And it is hard to miss him.
Holmgren is a 7-footer who plays like a guard but still maintains the shot-blocking and rim protection that comes with a center. It is astounding to watch — especially in a league where centers are making a comeback with Nikola Jokic winning MVP last year and in line to compete for this year’s award against Joel Embiid.
Holmgren averaged 14.2 points per game and 9.6 rebounds per game for the Gonzaga juggernaut this season. He added 3.6 blocks per game. And did this while shooting 41.2-percent from beyond the arc and 75.3-percent from the foul line.
Holmgren is a fascinating prospect for sure for that combination of size and inside-outside game. He is the crystallization of all the unicorn talk that got slapped on every semi-mobile big man in the early late-2010s.
Of course, there is the big warning sign that is going to be the debate of the draft. Holmgren is listed at only 190 pounds and he barely looks it. There is the concern of how he will match up with bigger and stronger players in the league. Not to mention, Holmgren essentially plays power forward next to Drew Timme.
Gonzaga does a good job hiding its players’ weaknesses with those big lineups. So Holmgren will enter with some of those positional questions and where he fits best. The Magic have been spending all season testing Wendell Carter alongside another lanky, shooting big man.
The difference between Chet Holmgren and Mo Bamba, however, is Holmgren is not afraid of contact. That is at least a start. But it does not quiet any of the team’s doubts about him.
Holmgren though has the highest ceiling. He could well be a once-in-a-generation player if all the pieces fit for him.
NCAA Tournament First Round: vs. Cal State Fullerton (Fri., 7:10 p.m.)
The Orlando Magic are short on players who simply can create their own shot. They need someone who can isolate and get a good shot when the clock ticks down. They need someone who knows how to manipulate space with his dribble and get a clean shot.
This skill is part of why Cole Anthony is still the one closing games, even if he is inefficient as an isolation scorer. And this is the biggest attractor for Paolo Banchero.
The Duke forward averaged 17.0 points per game and 7.8 rebounds per game. He was scoring at a good clip until a slowdown late in the season. But Banchero has all the tools to be a solid scorer.
The first thing that stands out is his fluidity for his size. He is 6-foot-10 and 250 pounds. He stands out on the college floor. Yet, he is the one who is scoring off the dribble and like a guard.
The concern with Banchero is his poor shooting. He made only 30.6-percent of his 3-pointers and 72.9-percent of his free throws. That suggests his outside shooting will not translate to the NBA and does not have a ton of room to grow. At least as he is currently constructed.
Banchero is a scorer for sure. And a good one at his size. But he may be limited to inside the 3-point line and may need good spacing to take full advantage of his size and talent.
Orlando Magic 2022 NBA Draft Big Board
Tier 2 Players
NCAA Tournament First Round: vs. Yale (Fri., 2 p.m.)
The biggest star to emerge this year has been Ja Morant. He seemingly creates a new NBA Top Shot moment every single night and has turned the Memphis Grizzlies into must-see TV. Why the NBA has not put him on TV as much as possible is beyond me. That will get corrected next year.
Morant is the kind of dynamo guard who immediately turned the Grizzlies from rebuilding team to contender within three years. It is really impressive how much Morant changed the game. And now everyone is going to be looking for an explosive guard with point guard skills to push them over the top.
In this draft, Jaden Ivey is the guy who will get that unfair comparison. But some of it is earned.
Ivey is indeed a dynamic athlete who can finish with creativity above and below the rim at 6-foot-4. He is an impressive playmaker at times too, able to move between both guard positions. And then he can take over games when he has to.
Ivey averaged 17.4 points per game and shot 46.2-percent from the floor on high volume (12.4 field goal attempts per game). He can put the ball in the basket. That is his best skill. And Purdue feels like it has a good shot at winning the whole thing. Ivey will get plenty of time to show off.
He will have to show in that time that he can fill in some of his weaknesses. Namely, his 3-point shooting. Ivey made only 35.6-percent of his 3-pointers and 73.5-percent of his free throws. That 3-point shooting was a marked improvement from his freshman year. But his shot remains inconsistent.
As does his playmaking. it is not clear whether he is a point guard. And Ivey, despite his dynamic athleticism, can be an at-the-rim-or-bust player.
NCAA Tournament First Round: vs. Richmond (Thurs., 3:10 p.m.)
Keegan Murray is the fastest riser among the public draft boards out there. He was not completely off the radar at the beginning of the season, but he was not considered one of the top guys in the draft in total.
That has completely changed now that we are in March.
Murray played his way up here and a fantastic Big Ten Tournament that ended in a Big Ten Championship.
Murray finished the season averaging 23.6 points per game (up from 7.2 last year in his freshman year). He shot 62.0-percent from the floor overall and 40.5-percent from three.
Murray is a forward who plays like a guard. He can move off screens and hit on the move just as well as he can hit from beyond the arc. He can also finish at the rim with athleticism. He may not be great off the dribble to be a primary option, but Murray will fit in anywhere.
During the Big Ten Tournament, he averaged 25.8 points per game and made 53.8-percent of his threes.
That is impressive no matter how you cut it. He put those numbers up in pressure games. That stands out for something.
So too the other parts of his game — and, yes, his measurables. He is 6-foot-8 with a plus wingspan. There is a reason the Orlando Magic have reportedly scouted him already (Magic general manager John Hammond said he missed Markelle Fultz’s return because he was scouting Iowa’s game against Northwestern).
If there is a candidate to surprise his way into the top group on Draft night, keep an eye on Murray.
Orlando Magic 2022 NBA Draft Big Board
Still some questions
NCAA Tournament First Round: vs. Wright State (Fri., 7:27 p.m.)
Bennedict Mathurin was a completely different player his freshman year last year. He was a reportedly quite guy who was still trying to find his way in a new environment and gain confidence on the court.
Every scout loves to see how players grow and change as they mature. They love to see players improve. And that is what Mathurin has done in his sophomore year, blossoming into a solid scoring guard who can do all the dirty work on both ends of the floor.
Mathurin averaged 17.4 points per game and 5.6 rebounds per game. His real value is on the defensive end where he has been a catalyst for Arizona’s run back to a one-seed.
Mathurin is still probably seeking some consistency as he builds his skill-based work. He is still fairly new to the game. But the way he has grown this year is extremely encouraging.
There are still a few big mysteries in this NBA Draft. And none is bigger and could have a bigger effect on the Draft order than Shaedon Sharpe.
Sharpe is at Kentucky, having graduated in the fall and enrolling early. But the Wildcats opted to hold him out this year since it is unclear if the NCAA would clear him. They did not want that uncertainty hanging over their season.
Sharpe was the top prospect in the high school class of 2022 before he reclassified and joined Kentucky. Scouts just do not have a ton of tape on him right now and it is hard to judge guys against high schoolers.
If Sharpe enters the NBA Draft Combine or does workouts, there will be a lot of people flocking to see him. More likely, Sharpe is going to head back to college next year.
NCAA Tournament First Round: vs. Cal State Fullerton (Fri., 7:10 p.m.)
As the Duke Blue Devils hit the doldrums of the season and Paolo Banchero struggled a bit to close the year, A.J. Griffin seemed to emerge as a potential star from the Blue Devils. Duke is a really good bet to win the national championship. At least from a talent perspective.
Griffin averaged 10.4 points per game and shot 46.7-percent from beyond the arc. But in Duke’s final 13 games, he averaged 12.5 points per game and shot 43.5-percent from three. That included a 27-point game at North Carolina and 21-point game in the ACC Tournament semifinal vs. Miami.
Griffin is a shooter. He may not be someone who can create a ton off the dribble. But this is a good draft at this stage to find some shooters. And that is something a team like the Orlando Magic desperately needs.
Orlando Magic 2022 NBA Draft Big Board
Rounding out the Lottery
NCAA Tournament First Round: vs. Boise State (Thur., 1:45 p.m.)
The Memphis Tigers sort of flamed out this year despite a really talented recruiting class. But Anfernee Hardaway got his team right to end the season and center Jalen Duren was a big part of that.
Duren is still a bit limited beyond finishing around the rim. But he does that really well. He is solid in pick and rolls and will be good crashing the lane. If he had more consistent guard play, he might play a whole lot better — he averaged 12.2 points and 8.1 rebounds per game for the season.
Duren is good around the basket and while he may not have a ton of versatility, he plays well for a traditional center.
NCAA Tournament First Round: vs. Saint Peter’s (Thurs., 7:10 p.m.)
The Kentucky Wildcats are not the juggernaut they were early on in John Calipari’s tenure as head coach. But they quickly found themselves this year and a dark horse favorite to win the whole thing. A lot of that comes from veteran big man Oscar Tshiebwe. But if this team is going to go deep in the tournament, it will be because of Tyty Washington.
Washington averaged 12.8 points per game and 4.0 assists per game. He is a dynamic athlete but a still-improving shooter. Washington needs a good tournament to solidify his place in the Draft.
NCAA Tournament First Round: vs. Colgate (Fri., 9:50 p.m.)
There was a point in this draft process that Wisconsin’s Johnny Davis looked like the guy who would be pushing to get inside that consensus top four. He made a major step up in his scoring from 7.0 points per game as a freshman to 19.0 points per game. There is a real smoothness to his game when it is working and he can score effortlessly, piling up points even when it seems like he is not.
Then something happened. His efficiency dropped, ending with an 11-point, 3-for-19 shooting performance in Wisconsin’s conference tournament loss to Michigan State. The Big Ten’s player of the year lost his spark.
Davis is not an effective outside shooter yet. And when defenses started to close down his space and make it tough for him to get separation, Davis had to start forcing things for the offensively challenged Badgers.
Davis is dealing with an ankle injury entering the tournament and so there are more questions than answers for him.
NCAA Tournament First Round: vs. Texas Southern (Thurs., 9:57 p.m.)
It is rare for seniors to get much attention from the NBA, certainly not at the upper echelons. But there are far too many examples of overlooked senior players and upperclassmen making immediate impacts at the NBA level — think Malcolm Brogdon or Chris Duarte. Someone is going to get a solid player in Ochai Agbaji.
Agbaji averaged 19.7 points per game as his scoring increased in all four of his seasons at Kansas. He finished this year shooting a career-high 47.7-percent from the floor and 40.5-percent from beyond the arc. That arc of improvement is important as scouts hope to wring out a bit more from an older player.
Agbaji is an improving 3-point shooter and he has the defensive tools to make a quick impact in the NBA.
The second year of the G-League Ignite did not entice the same kind of talent that the first year did in Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga. It ultimately put its best prospect, Jaden Hardy, in a really tough spot. He was pigeonholed quickly as the team’s top offensive option and even as a lead guard way before he was ready.
Stats are harder to come by right now for the G-League Ignite (unlike last year, they are not eligible for the G-League playoffs). But after struggling early on, Hardy has shown some of the explosive scoring ability that made him a top prospect entering the season.
NCAA Tournament First Round: vs. Iowa State (Fri., 7:20 p.m.)
Tari Eason quickly gained attention at LSU for his ball-hawking skills and defense. He averaged 6.7 rebounds per game and 3.1 “stocks” per game. He is an active defender able to hold his own in the paint and get out on the perimeter.
What is perhaps most impressive is how he jumped from Cincinnati to embracing a sixth man role at LSU. He averaged 16.9 points per game off the bench for the Tigers this year after averaging 7.3 with the Bearcats last year.
He is not much of a shooter yet. but his defensive activity will give him a fair look in the NBA.
We will be back to update our big board as we get closer to the NBA Draft. Until then, enjoy the NCAA Tournament!