The Orlando Magic are in one of the more interesting and precarious spots in the entire NBA Draft.
They hold two top 10 picks with the fifth and eighth selections. But their need to find a star and their placement just outside this celebrated group of four at the top of the draft has them looking everywhere to find the central piece to this growing roster.
It is hard to begin rebuilding without that foundation in place. Jamahl Mosley can be the best coach in the world, but the team needs players.
That is why so much seems to be riding on this draft. The Magic put a lot of eggs into it with the trades they made. They bet big. And they sort of lost.
While the team certainly did not get the main prize in winning the Lottery, the Magic still got two top-10 picks and the chance to add two quality players to a solid young core. Orlando could end up taking one home run swing to find their star, but they have two bites at the apple to add a piece to the puzzle for this team.
Still, everyone wants to see the team add the central piece. Orlando’s biggest need is to find a star that can lead them into deep playoff series and win games when the stakes are the highest. That is what every team is looking for in the end.
The Orlando Magic are desperate for a star and a player to ground their rebuild. As they consider who to draft and make their big board a focus on what the team actually needs should take precedent.
Whether the Magic can get one or not will be the mystery. After all, the NBA Finals is being competed between two teams with stars drafted in the teens in Devin Booker and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Stars can be found anywhere.
We have done plenty of big boards so far. And it is time to update our traditional big board after looking at positional fits in our last board.
With our last board, we focused on the tiers players would fall in and how to sort players into groups. On this board, we want to focus a bit more on need, building off our positional fit board. While we are considering tiers and player talent in this board, the focus on this board will be on where those players might fit into the Magic ecosystem.
Looking at things this way adds an important layer to the conversation as we get two weeks away from the NBA Draft.
Orlando Magic Daily Big Board: The top guys
The same four as always
There is no change at the very top of this board. Cade Cunningham is still by far the class of this draft and a player who can do it all. He is the kind of player that a team makes fit to their roster. He has great control of the game and a scorer’s mentality with the willingness to pass and get others involved. Cunningham may not be a generational talent, but he is clearly at the top of this class.
For Orlando Magic fans, no prospect has garnered more attention or more eyes than Jalen Green. And for good reason. Green is a fantastic scorer and an efficient one at that. At least at the G-League level. Still super impressive for an 18-year-old.
More than anything else, though, the Magic need a bucket-getter. This will be a theme throughout this big board. Orlando has to put a focus on finding someone who can score. Preferably off the dribble, but if not that way then as a shooter. They need to create space for all the players on their roster somehow.
Green though fits the Magic’s current lineup best of any player in this draft. He is a shooting guard for a team that has a clear gap at that position. Gary Harris right now is slotted as the starting 2-guard. But it does not feel likely he will be on the team past his contract’s expiration.
Green fits a positional need as much as a skill need. And this is the star the Magic should covet. If they can move up, this is their target.
Evan Mobley’s talent and fit in the modern NBA are going to be hard to ignore for any team. Even in a world that is more focused on perimeter-oriented players than traditional post players, centers still have their place in the world.
Two centers, after all, finished first and second in MVP voting this year. And Deandre Ayton has made the Phoenix Suns look good for taking him No. 1 overall in that celebrated 2018 draft.
Mobley has all the mobility and versatility that modern centers have to have. That makes him an attractive player. Adding a third young center to the Orlando Magic would be difficult. But is the team really married to Wendell Carter or Mohamed Bamba long-term? That would be the question the Magic would ask if they were targeting Mobley.
It is hard not to answer that Mobley is the right choice if that is how the draft plays out. Whether that means Orlando would be willing to trade up for him is another matter. It feels like there are more important needs to fill on the roster.
Jalen Suggs still slots in here as his talent and skill are just too developed to pass up. The Orlando Magic have shown a clear liking toward having multiple ball handlers available to play at the same time.
There should be no qualms about pairing Jalen Suggs with Markelle Fultz or Cole Anthony. Suggs though has great leadership qualities and seems to know exactly what his team needs at all times.
Orlando Magic Daily Big Board: The Big Decision
Jonathan Kuminga or Scottie Barnes?
From a talent perspective, Jonathan Kuminga and Scottie Barnes have clearly separated themselves from everyone else in this class below them.
What was once a five-person class has become a four-plus-one class and increasingly a four-plus-two class. Scottie Barnes has gained that much momentum.
Kuminga or Barnes could easily go before the Orlando Magic select at No. 5 but the conventional wisdom will have the Magic selecting between these two players when it is their turn to pick. And it will be a very difficult decision.
On the one hand, there is the supreme potential that Kuminga could become a star scorer. He already feels comfortable shooting off the dribble and has the body ready to enter the NBA. If he will accept coaching and continues to work to improve his shot, he has a chance to be a really special player.
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On the other hand, Scottie Barnes is a more versatile player. He has the ability to defend every position 1 through 4 and is a smart attacker and playmaker from the forward spot.
Deciphering between these two players will be a difficult task. The positional fit might be awkward with Jonathan Isaac and Chuma Okeke occupying the forward spots, but they both would help the team tremendously in a number of areas.
So where do the Magic land?
I have been wavering in my belief that Kuminga is still the right pick. Plenty of draft analysts believe Kuminga’s shot can be fixed, but they are concerned about his shot selection in the bubble and his disinterest on defense despite having all the physical tools to be a great defender.
Kuminga has a lot of questions to answer during the interview process. And I do wonder how much his knee injury from inside the bubble played a role in some of his poor statistics.
But he edges out Barnes for me because offense and scoring are the biggest needs for the Magic. And with this high of a pick, the Magic should be willing to err on taking a home run swing.
Barnes is a great defender and playmaker. He is by no means a negative on offense. But his poor shooting outside the paint and the sometimes awkward nature of his game, despite his aggression going to the basket, give me pause in trying to find a guy this roster can build around.
Neither player would be a bad pick. And nothing would surprise me if the Magic went off-board and took something they felt surer about as they rebuild this team.
Orlando Magic Daily Big Board: The Secret Stars
Who emerges as the surprise?
Inevitably in every draft, the pre-draft big boards do not reflect either how the draft actually shakes out or who becomes the best players in the draft. This is all just guessing.
What should be clear from the way I have broken down prospects at this point of the big board, I think the biggest needs for the team are scoring and shooting. Pretty simple, right?
But more than that, the Orlando Magic need star power. The team needs a player who it can truly build around. And that is the big thing the Magic were hoping to get in lining up for a top pick in the draft. Thus the ultimate disappointment of falling to No. 5.
Now, the team has to do the difficult task of trying to find that star where others do not see one.
Throughout the draft process, I have always said the team should go after whomever Jeff Weltman identifies as a top star. If that means trading up, trade up to get him. If that means bucking the convention of the “big board” passed around the media to take that player at No. 5, take that player at No. 5.
What is clear from looking at this draft class is that there are talented players who could prove to be stars that nobody is thinking about right now. They comprise our next group on the big board.
The groundswell for James Bouknight among the fan base is certainly a real thing. Fans are very eager to add a player like Bouknight, who was a straight scorer for the UConn Huskies before an elbow injury sidelined him after 15 games.
Bouknight’s shooting numbers do not look good for that reason. He often had to force offense too for an undermanned and struggling UConn team. But his scoring numbers are pretty prolific. If there is a player who could sneakily be an All-Star out of this class, Bouknight is certainly the guy.
He is an excellent scorer at all three levels with the athleticism to finish above the rim too (although he is not an otherworldly athlete).
Drafting Bouknight would be picking a player who is a clear scorer and someone the Magic believe can fit in as an on-ball attacker.
When it comes to finding players with star potential, it is about finding players with unique and exceptional skills. Players with elite skills. This is the biggest thing the Orlando Magic are missing right now. Jonathan Isaac is a potential all-defensive team player. R.J. Hampton has had some flashes as a speedster.
But it is hard to find players with elite talent or skill levels.
In steps Keon Johnson. The man who set the NBA Draft Combine record with a 48-inch max vertical leap and is one of the fastest players in the Draft. Johnson is going to demand people notice him just by that end-to-end speed and athleticism.
When he gets to the basket and is able to hang in the air, he looks as good as any player in the draft class. The speed and athleticism he displays are as good as anything.
But the game is not played in transition all the time. The game slows down in the half-court. And this is where Johnson struggles. His shooting is a major concern as a sub-30-percent 3-point shooter and about a 70-percent free-throw shooter.
That might be what gives a team like the Magic pause in drafting someone like Johnson even if he fits in well as a shooting guard in the lineup. But Orlando needs more shooting than anything.
Moses Moody has long been a favorite prospect of mine. He has good size to play defense and he is already a knock-down shooter. For many, he is the perfect 3-and-D prospect in this draft. His long wingspan means he can grow into becoming a strong defensive player and his ability to shoot in multiple ways makes him valuable.
His issue is that his ceiling seems low — although it certainly could be better than being a simple 3-and-D player. Moody is not going to be a top option offensively.
In college, when defenses closed in on him off the dribble, he tended to struggle. His best role will be coming around screens and doing simple one- or two-dribble pull-ups against close-outs.
Moody may not ever become a starring player. But he is a really solid role player to have in hand. And for an Orlando Magic team without shooting, he would desperately fill a need.
Similar to the argument for drafting Keon Johnson, the argument for drafting Josh Giddey is about the uniqueness of his talent. Giddey is a 6-foot-10 point forward who has had a lot of success at the pro level already, leading the NBL in Australia in assists last year.
Josh Giddey is very much like Ben Simmons, although not nearly as good in any area. Giddey is solid at getting into the lane, in transition and in running a team. He is a point guard in a forward’s body.
The rest of the equation for Giddey is still a mystery though. He is not a great jump shooter at this point (although there are hints he is getting better). And the main thing with Giddey is the uniqueness of his passing ability at his size.
The Orlando Magic already have a guard who struggles to shoot in Markelle Fultz and Josh Giddey’s lack of shooting is a major concern. It would be hard to bring in a player like Josh Giddey with that and without a secondary skill as Scottie Barnes has.
There have not been a lot of centers listed on this big board. After Evan Mobley, the number of big men starts to thin out in this class. But Alperen Sengun deserves a closer look.
He is not as versatile as a player like Mobley, but he has all the understanding to be a modern center. He is very good at using space in pick and rolls and timing his rolls and short rolls to get himself open. Sengun is also a really skilled low-post player and offensive rebounder.
Sengun has to develop his jump shot more to earn a starting spot. But he is a solid player and a good option at center.
Alperen Sengun may not be enough to displace players like Wendell Carter or Mohamed Bamba from the Magic’s rotation. And it would not make sense to grab a third young center without getting rid of one of the two ahead of him.
Orlando Magic Daily Big Board: Interesting Options
Who else is in the running?
Corey Kispert might well be the best shooter in the entire NBA Draft. He is good on the move and in spot-ups and he can attack more off the dribble. But Kispert is not going to confuse anyone as a potential star. He will be a great role player and a shooter when he enters the league. And every good team needs one of those.
Davion Mitchell has become a bit more of a darling among mock drafts and big boards as the draft process has continued on. Teams like the Golden State Warriors would rather have a veteran guard they can slide into their lineups quickly rather than a project that would take time to develop.
Everyone has gone to describing Mitchell as a winner. And that national championship he helped lead Baylor to this season certainly suggests that. He is a great defender and a solid scorer and driver. Mithcell is going to make a lot of good plays.
There just is not a lot of upside. Mitchell may end up becoming something like Marcus Smart in the end. That is a good player and Mithcell can get to that level. But he is not going to be a star or be a specialist in anything other than grit.
That is valuable, but not necessarily what the Orlando Magic are looking for at this stage of their rebuild.
Franz Wagner will have a lot of the same issues as the other players on this slide. He is a good player, but a somewhat limited one.
Wagner might be the best defensive player in the draft. And he is a capable outside shooter. Wagner will make a team happy as a role player for their team. But it is hard to see him becoming a high-level starter.
For an Orlando Magic team that has major holes to fill, taking a player with a bit more upside than a 3-and-D guy is valuable. And Wagner’s defense is good but not good enough to guarantee him a starting spot long-term.
Jalen Johnson is an incredible talent and was one of the more interesting players to watch at Klutch’s Pro Day on Tuesday. That was as much because no one has seen him play very much after he withdrew from Duke mid-season.
Johnson’s season was filled with injuries. But Johnson does have star potential. He is an incredible athlete who has good defensive instincts and can finish above the rim in the open floor.
Johnson’s shooting remains a big concern and that is what drops him in the big board for the Orlando Magic, even below players with more upside. The Magic are set at forward and Johnson’s skills do not move the needle for this team at the moment.
Orlando Magic Daily Big Bard: Deep draft considerations
Filling out the first round
Sharife Cooper has been generating buzz in the pre-draft process for his athleticism and speed numbers. He was a solid point guard at Auburn, averaging 20.2 points per game and 8.1 assists per game on a 42.7-percent effective field goal percentage while carrying a 33.1-percent usage rate.
Kai Jones is a raw center prospect who has shown an ability to hit from the outside. At this point, everything about him is uncertain and whoever drafts him is going to have to be patient as he continues to learn the game and to define his skills.
Usman Garuba is an intriguing international prospect as a traditional power forward. He is a solid rebounder and defender. At 6-foot-8, he is undersized to play center. Despite a willingness to shoot, there is still work for him to do beyond playing around the basket in the paint.
The big attraction of Chris Duarte is his 40-plus-percent shooting from beyond the arc. The senior guard is a solid scorer, but shooting will be his calling card when he hits the NBA.
Tre Mann showed tremendous growth in his time at Florida, becoming a better shooter in each of his years as his role expanded. He finished last year scoring 16.0 points per game and shooting better than 40-percent from deep.
JT Thor is a 6-foot-10 forward who averaged 9.4 points and 5.0 rebounds per game. He is a good athlete and showed a lot of signs of the kinds of things NBA teams like to see. But he was a really poor shooter, making less than than 50-percent from the field, and he is not much of a jump shooter. Plus he averaged 1.5 turnovers per game. He is a major project.
Jared Butler completed a solid junior year where he averaged 16.7 points per game and 4.8 assists per game while hitting on 41.6-percent of his 3-pointers. Butler though plateaued off his sophomore year. And he is not a natural point guard, despite splitting point guard duties with Davion Mitchell.
Cameron Thomas was a strong scorer at LSU, averaging 23.0 points per game as the Tigers surprised many with a strong run in the SEC Tournament. Thomas was not overly efficient but he had to carry LSU.
Ziaire Williams has a lot of strong scoring attributes. He can attack the paint and finish around the basket. But his poor shooting will lead to questions about how he fits in when he is not the center of the offense. And thus a big red flag on him as he gets looked at just outside the Lottery.
Trey Murphy had a strong two-year run at Rice before confirming his talent at Virginia last year. He averaged 11.3 points per game and shot 43.3-percent from beyond the arc. Those numbers were slightly down from his big sophomore year at Rice. But still solid. And coming from Virginia, teams should be able to trust he can defend and has sound fundamentals.
Keon Johnson’s backcourt running mate, Jaden Springer, put up similar numbers with 12.5 points per game but a more refined outside shot. Springer is nowhere near the athlete that Johnson is (who is?) but his shooting ability will help him find a place in the league. Although our pals at FanSided probably think a little too highly of him.
Isaiah Jackson is the Kentucky representative for the Draft in a down year. He is a good athlete but does not have much of a game outside the paint yet.
The real reason Anfernee Hardaway was in Chicago for the NBA Draft Combine was to work out and help Frank Grimes. He put on a great showing as the best player who played in the five-on-five games during the event. Grimes is a solid player with the ability to put the ball on the floor and hit from the outside. After four years in college, his upside is low, but he could be this draft’s Courtney Lee as a contributor on a winning team.
Joshua Primo served as Alabama’s sixth man for much of the season, averaging 8.8 points per game and shooting 38.1-percent from the field. In 19 games as a starter, Primo posted 9.0 points per game and made 40.8-percent of his 3-pointers. Primo is still a young player seeking consistency as he earned the start job and then lost it as the season wore on.
Ayo Dosunmu is a tough player with a still-developing shot. But his lack of size and poor control over the game makes him a questionable pick at point guard.
Just two weeks to go until the NBA Draft. We still have a community mock draft coming out next week and then a final mock draft due out before the Draft. Feel free to leave your thoughts and draft questions in the comments below or online @omagicdaily on Twitter.