The Orlando Magic are waiting in limbo it feels right now.
They need a new coach and they are seeking a foundation for the rebuild. And none of that is really determined until the Magic have their draft pick in hand.
Everyone has the percentages memorized by now: the team has a 14.0-percent chance of winning the NBA Draft Lottery and a 52.1-percent of landing in the top four. The team also has a 79.7-percent chance of landing the Chicago Bulls’ pick, it conveys if it is outside the top four, and a 70.7-percent chance of that pick landing at pick eight or nine.
Those odds suggest the Magic have a coin flip’s chance of landing in the top four and a fairly good chance of getting a second top-10 pick in this year’s draft.
But who that pick will be and who will be available to the Magic is completely up in the air at the moment.
The Orlando Magic are refining their draft board and list as they prepare for the NBA Draft Combine and the NBA Draft Lottery. So are we in an update of our Big Board from March.
At this point, and concurrently with the team’s coaching search, the team is refining its draft list. It is checking in on players they are actually interested in and sorting the players into tiers to figure out who they would pick where and who they actually value.
Much of the Magic’s draft work is close to done. They undoubtedly have extensive scouting reports from film review. The last step will be to get them in person and test them out in individual workouts and interviews. But that is only a small piece of the puzzle.
The bigger piece is the work that is already done. And sorting out who goes where.
We did a Big Board, a ranking of the prospects as the Magic might prefer them, back in March when it was clear the season was heading south. This was also before the Magic completely changed their outlook with the trade deadline deals.
Much of the analysis then has changed now. The Magic’s needs have completely changed. They need everything. And they will be looking at this Draft as adding a central piece to their puzzle — along with a healthy Jonathan Isaac. Anyone else is still a bit of a mystery.
So we put together our big board and look at who the Magic are going to be focusing on for this draft.
Orlando Magic Big Board Tier I
The Cream of the Crop
1
Cade Cunningham G
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There is very little debate in draft circles about who the top prospect in this draft is. Cade Cunningham combines a strong mix of scoring and playmaking ability.
He played like a freshman for a lot of his lone year at Oklahoma State in deferring to older players, but when he took over games, he played like a true superstar. There are draft experts who believe he grades as well as any point guard they have seen come through the draft in some time. Although they will stop short of calling him a surefire Hall of Fame prospect.
The Orlando Magic since the trade deadline have added several point guards to their team — loading up with young under-25 guards in Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony and R.J. Hampton. Adding another young guard to the mix will create some problems.
But in the modern NBA, you can play multiple ball handlers at the same time. And Cunningham is a good enough shooter that he should be able to work off the ball as the Magic sort through their options.
At the end of the day, talent should win. And Cunningham is the top prize.
2
Jalen Green SG
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If the Orlando Magic do not get Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green is a pretty good consolation prize.
Green is perhaps the best player off the dribble and creating his own shot. He does a really good job getting to the basket and has great athleticism to finish around the basket. His shot needs a bit of work, but the fundamentals are all there for him to be a strong shooter.
Green took over games in the G-League for the Ignite this season, a really impressive showing for an 18-year-old playing in an American professional league. And there is plenty of room to grow.
As the Playoffs show every year, the difference between nice regular season teams and teams that can go far are players who can create their own shot, especially off the dribble. When defenses can load up on you, can you get a shot and make it?
That has been the biggest thing the Magic have been missing. It is hard to find guys who can play this way and play efficiently — thus other scorers on this list like Ziaire Williams or Keon Johnson are falling on our list. A player has to be able to do something off the ball in this situation.
That is where Green has differentiated himself. And he is at the top of the food chain.
3
Evan Mobley C
UP 1
Evan Mobley is the biggest mover perhaps among this top group. Mobley averaged 16.4 points, 8.7 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game for USC. During the NCAA Tournament, he turned in 13.5 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game in helping the Trojans reach the Elite Eight.
Plus, since our last big board, the Orlando Magic traded All-Star center Nikola Vucevic. While the team has Wendell Carter and Mohamed Bamba, neither is a sure thing to re-sign with the team beyond this season. Orlando is not settled at the center position.
Mobley is an athletic modern center. He can protect the paint and rim. He has good mobility as a rim-runner and pick and roller. His jumper is also coming along with some speed too. Mobley is a promising player for that reason.
There will be a fair debate about Green or Mobley for a long time as we lead into the draft.
Orlando Magic Big Board Tier II
The Best of the Rest
4
Jalen Suggs G
UP 1
Jalen Suggs perhaps had the best run in the NCAA Tournament of anyone. He had the huge moment when he hit the half-court shot that sent then-undefeated Gonzaga to the national championship game of the NCAA Tournament. There is certainly a fair argument — the emphasis this league puts on wings chief among them — that Suggs should go ahead of Mobley.
Suggs averaged 14.4 points per game and dished 4.5 assists per game last season. In the NCAA Tournament, he averaged 14.5 points per game and 4.7 assists per game. The big games can color how consistent Suggs was in the entire tournament compared to his season.
The reason why there is some caution with Suggs is that he is not a true point guard. Suggs is a gifted scorer off the dribble and can finish at the basket well. But his shooting and distributing are questionable in the big picture. Or at least, questionable enough to get him knocked below a few of these elite prospects.
Do not get it wrong, Suggs is a very good player. Even if he is not a surefire All-Star or All-Star talent, Suggs is going to be very good in this league. No one should be upset about him.
5
Jonathan Kuminga F
DOWN 2
Jonathan Kuminga appears to have fallen behind his peers in this widely considered consensus top-five.
Kuminga had a solid season with the G-League Ignite, but it was not stellar by any means. He even missed the last few games with an injury. Others just looked a whole lot better. And the Orlando Magic’s needs have changed some with Jonathan Isaac, Chuma Okeke and a second top-10 pick with a likely wing player or bigger forward also in the running.
The Magic should not turn away from Kuminga if he is available to them. Kuminga has an NBA-ready body and is already looking like a strong defender. He had some impressive showings in the G-League bubble nonetheless. A lot of that because he physically could handle it.
Kuminga is especially good at using that strength to get downhill and to the basket. He is a freight train going to the rim.
But his jumper needs a lot more consistency. And the time in the G-League bubble did not dissuade that inconsistency. Proponents for Kuminga would say that his fundamentals are fine and that with more practice and work, he can be a skilled shooter. If that is the case, he should pass Jalen Suggs with his physicality and talent.
That will be something he has to prove in individual workouts (which he is reportedly spending a lot of time in Orlando doing as he prepares for the next phase of the draft process).
Orlando Magic Big Board Tier III
Consolation Prizes
The addition of a second pick for the Orlando Magic to this draft should not affect who the Magic take with their first pick. But they are going to dig in and look at some of these players in the next tier. Because the next group of players are all very similar and could very well go in any order.
And the Magic, even if they land at six, could find two players they really like at eight or nine. Even if neither of those players looks like potential stars. There are still a lot of good players available.
6
Scottie Barnes F
UP 1
A lot of these guys in this tier especially are going to splitting hairs. Your view will be just as good as mine.
I have slide Scottie Barnes up a spot from our last big board because of how unique his skill set is (and how much Moses Moody struggled in the NCAA Tournament).
Barnes essentially played like Florida State’s point guard in their egalitarian system. The 6-foot-9 forward averaged 10.3 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game in 24.8 minutes per game. Barnes has a good defensive body and plenty of versatility to spare.
The question for him is what happens when he scales his minutes up — Florida State usually is so locked in as a team and so full of talent that a lot of guys are sort of pushed to the side in the mix to be a better team. The same happened to Jonathan Isaac when he was clearly the most talented player on that team. And then whether he can improve enough as a shooter.
A situation like Orlando would be good for Barnes. They have other similar forwards he can play behind and get some experience as the team builds itself back up.
What the Magic should be looking for in this group are players who either have a specialized skill already developed with a ceiling to grow or players with unique versatility and attributes. That is why I have Barnes ahead of the rest.
7
Moses Moody G/F
DOWN 1
I might be a bit higher on Moses Moody than some others. I think among the scorers in this Draft that are not considered surefire All-Stars, Moody’s game will translate best to the next level. A lot of that is because I believe he can play without the ball.
The going belief is that Moody is the best 3-and-D prospect in the Draft. There might be something to that. His plus wingspan projects him as a strong defender. He shot 35.8-percent on 3-pointers and 81.2-percent from the foul line. The belief is that if he is on the ball less, his shooting percentage will spike.
There could be something to that. While Moody probably will not be a top scorer, his ability to score off the dribble and create some space should be considered a plus. He will have a game where he scores at that level. If his career tracks a player like Will Barton as a 3-and-D player, he will be very valuable.
His poor NCAA Tournament was only a sign that he probably is not a future primary scorer. So fitting him into the right role will be a key to his success. But there is a lot to like.
8
Corey Kispert F
UP 3
Corey Kispert might well be the best shooter in the NBA Draft. He did a good job working off the ball and off cuts especially for the Gonzaga juggernaut. He shot 44.0-percent from beyond the arc in averaging 18.6 points per game. His percentages went up as his role increased too — also a product of the increased talent on the Gonzaga team.
Kispert is a bit contained in what his role could be. He is a shooter first and foremost. And it is hard to imagine him doing a lot more. He can work some pick and roll and simple dribble moves.
But the Magic need shooting above everything else. And Kispert is the best in this draft at providing that.
Orlando Magic Big Board Tier IV
Keep an eye on
9
James Bouknight G
UP 1
The Orlando Magic need pure scorers and that should be a premium with the players they are looking to select in this draft. Guys who can create their own shot and put the ball in the basket is the biggest need on the roster. And that is what James Bouknight is simply good at.
The 6-foot-5 guard averaged 18.5 points per game last season before injury cut it short. He was a high-volume shooter (14.6 field goal ttempts per game). That would account for his low field goal percentage — including a sub-30-percent 3-point field goal percentage.
He slips because of that inefficiency. But the hope is that in a lesser role and with NBA spacing, he can unlock that scoring potential.
10
Keon Johnson G/F
DOWN 2
Keon Johnson is similarly rated in this draft as Moses Moody because of his scoring and driving ability. Johnson averaged 11.3 points per game. But he showed plenty of athleticism and the ability to finish around the rim.
Johnson’s biggest detraction right now is his poor shooting. He made only 27.1-percent of his 3-pointers and 70.3-percent from the foul line. Where Moody shows some potential as a shooter, previewing a move off the ball. The question is whether Johnson can take all that talent and work off the ball too.
This is why Johnson is probably rated a bit lower. Even if he seems to have more overall talent.
11
Josh Giddey SF
NR
Josh Giddey started to turn heads as the NBL season in Australia came to a close. He ended up leading the league in assists with 7.5 per game. Again, very impressive for an 18-year-old in a growing and competitive league like the NBL. Going back to back with LaMelo Ball and Josh Giddey leading that league in assists is impressive. Clearly Ball, who had a similar stat profile as Giddey, translated well to the league.
At a certain point, too, unique skill sets should get some value. There are few players at 6-foot-8 with these kinds of passing and playmaking skills. Point forward seems like a passe phrase at this point. But nobody should be so moored to positions anymore. It is about skills. And Giddey has them. He just needs to add the shooting.
Still, the Magic have a penchant for seeking length. A guard with his size is someone that is absolutely on the Magic’s radar. His poor shooting is what will keep him from climbing into the next tier or surpassing a similar player in Scottie Barnes.
12
Jalen Johnson F
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The more you think about Jalen Johnson, the more his physical gifts and potential seem to fit the NBA more than they would in college. And certainly enough to look past any skills gap he still has to make.
The brief flashes of athleticism and his 6-foot-9 frame are more than enough to keep NBA folks interested. He was fine when he did play at Duke too with 11.2 points per game.
The lingering questions are more about his injuries and how he recovers from the ailment that had him leaving Duke before the season ended. Johnson will get his opportunity at the NBA level. The question is which team will be patient enough to give him time to develop.
13
Alperen Sengun C
NR
There are not many centers available in this draft. Those who want one better hope they land high enough to get Evan Mobley. But there is increasing buzz over Turkish star Alperen Sengun.
Sengun averaged 19.2 points and 9.4 rebounds per game for Besiktas in Turkey. He added 1.7 blocks per game for good measure.
The 6-foot-9, 18-year-old is turning heads with his play to finish the season in Turkey. But he is a paint-bound center who will not venture too far outside. But Sengun is extremely talented and will help just about any team that gives him the chance.
Orlando Magic Big Board Tier V
The Best of the Rest
14
Davion Mitchell SG
NR
Davion Mitchell made the biggest name for himself in leading Baylor to the NCAA title. Mitchell is a tough-nosed defender and heady scorer. The reputation he created in the NCAA Tournament has him climbing draft boards at this part of the process.
15
Franz Wagner SF
NR
Franz Wagner is perhaps the best individual defender in this draft. That is not where his skills stop. He has to continue improving as a shooter, but he can hit from the outside effectively too. Wagner does not seem to have much more upside beyond that — and the Orlando Magic are already pretty loaded at forward unless that player is significantly talented.
16
Ziaire Williams SF
DOWN 7
Ziaire Williams is a capable scorer after averaging 10.7 point sper game at Stanford. His sub-30-percent shooting is the reason why we have him sliding down the board. Williams just does not seem to fit what the Magic are trying to build right now.
17
Kai Jones C
NR
Kai Jones was a big energy boost for the Texas Longhorns. If he got starter’s minutes, he might have averaged a double-double. In a center-starved draft, Jones is likely to go higher than he might otherwise. Jones is athletic and can finish with force around the basket.
18
Isaiah Jackson PF
NR
Kentucky for Isaiah Jackson is the kind of athlete that NBA teams tend to love. He averaged 8.4 points per game and 6.6 rebounds per game in 20.8 minutes per game. Jackson does not have much range outside the paint right now.
19
Tre Mann PG
NR
Tre Mann is quickly gaining some momentum as one of the better shooters in this draft. The Florida Gators guard averaged 16.0 points per game and shot 40.2-percent from beyond the arc. That will make him valuable to teams in the long run. The question is whether he has the point guard skills and the NBA athleticism to make it.
20
Usman Garuba F
NR
Usman Garuba has played for Real Madrid since 2019 but is still seeking consistent playing time, as is often the case for young players on elite international teams in Europe. He posted 5.6 points and 5.3 rebounds per game in Liga ACB and 4.0 points and 4.1 rebounds per game in EuroLeague. Garuba has good size. But he may need some time to get his legs under him.
21
Ayo Dosunmu SG
DOWN 8
Ayo Dosunmu was part of an Illinois team that was one of the best offenses in the nation. But the Illini’s surprisingly quick exit from the tournament, and the terrible effort in the loss to Loyola Chicago, leaves a lot of questions for the players on that team. Dosunmu should still be a tough guard who can score and get into the paint and space the floor a bit.
22
Chris Duarte SG
NR
Chris Duarte may not spend this long down on this list. He averaged 17.1 points per game and shot 42.4-percent from beyond the arc last year at Oregon. Duarte is 6-foot-6 and has good size to attack the paint and basket. But his ultimate success will come because of his 3-point shot. And as someone likely going later in the draft, he could be a steal.
We will be back with another big board before the draft process after the Magic’s draft order is set. We will also have another staff mock draft after the Lottery takes place.