The NBA Playoffs are eating up most of the attention of the NBA world right now — as they should. And every basketball fan, even ones of teams not participating in the playoffs, should be watching and learning what they can from these first set of games. This is where the Orlando Magic hope to be next year.
This week though also marked a monumental moment for the NBA Draft. All the top prospects made it official that they would enter the NBA Draft.
Auburn forward (and likely top overall pick) Jabari Smith declared a few weeks ago. Duke forward Paolo Banchero joined him Wednesday with an announcement video. Gonzaga center Chet Holmgren announced he will enter his name into the NBA Draft. Kentucky guard Shaedon Sharpe also announced he was entering the draft Thursday.
All this is academic. Those players are considered the best prospects in the draft class and seem likely to go in the top six. The Orlando Magic should be very comfortable with the options they will have in this year’s draft.
They will have to wait until May 17 to see where they ultimately land in the NBA Draft Lottery. But they do know they will have at least that top-six pick. Orlando has a 52.1-percent chance of winning a top-four pick and a 14.0-percent chance of landing the top pick.
There will be a lot more clarity for who the Magic will be targeting and who they will take after that date. But the draft class has started to take shape.
So it is time to take a closer look at how the draft actually will shake out.
We have previously released our big board — which is a Magic-centered ranking of the prospects. That does not take into account the draft order and the quirks of team needs.
This mock draft is not going to run a full Lottery (that may come in our second version of this mock draft). We are going to assume the Lottery plays out to chalk for this mock draft. What this run through the draft will look at is both the team needs and how the draft might play out. It will also look at who the Magic would take in these situations too.
There is going to be a lot of debate about the number one pick in the draft. It is not set like it is most years. There are clearly three guys in the top group of players.
I have had Auburn forward Jabari Smith at the top of my board for a
The Houston Rockets are at the beginning stage of their rebuild and need several more pieces to get where they want. But they have the one thing every rebuilding team needs (more on that in a bit). Jalen Green’s stellar run to end the season shows the Rockets might have a bona fide star.
That may affect their draft board and who they go after. Would they want another ball-dominant forward to share the limelight with Green? Would they go after the 7-foot unicorn to pair with their young center in Alperen Sengun?
This is definitely not anything set in stone. But the simplest answer is probably the best answer.
Jabari Smith is a great defender (something the Rockets definitely need) and can hit from the outside. He is the perfect complement to someone like Smith, even if he does not hit his upper bounds.
The top overall pick is perhaps not the place to play anything safe. But this is not a safe pick, by any means. Smith is a really good player.
Who the Orlando Magic pick: Paolo Banchero
I have been weighing this for a while. Jabari Smith is still the top guy on my board. I think he has solid upside and will provide something no matter how he develops.
But that is not what the Orlando Magic need.
They need a big swing. They need a guy who is going to be a primary scorer and drive the offense. The Magic lacked someone who could break down teams and make teams pay for switching on them. That was the main way teams attacked and neutralized Cole Anthony.
The Magic need a go-to scorer. That is what Banchero is. And while I am not ready to change my board quite yet, I think Banchero has the skills this Magic team is missing that could possibly put the team over the top.
Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft Version 1.0
I probably telegraphed this pick above. So it is time to go a bit deeper on why Banchero is my favored pick at this juncture.
Banchero averaged 17.2 points per game and 7.8 rebounds per game while shooting 47.8-percent from the floor overall at Duke. They used him in the post a lot as he was just simply bigger than every other player on the court. That is honestly the biggest thing that stood out about his time at Duke. He just towered over everyone on the court.
Banchero though has a pretty diverse game. He can work off the dribble and hit pull-up jumpers in the mid-range. He can hit the low post. He is a solid passer — 3.2 assists per game. And his 3-point shot took some major strides throughout the season — he finished the year shooting 33.8-percent from beyond the arc, but finished the last 15 games shooting 35.8-percent.
There are clear areas where Banchero can improve. He is not some runaway prospect. This is not a draft with that surefire prospect.
So you look for the indicators of future stardom. And you look for the best bet to get there.
Things turned for me during the NCAA Tournament. Banchero averaged 18.8 points per game and 7.6 rebounds per game while shooting 50.0-percent from the floor and 52.6-percent from deep. He displayed all the skills that make him a top pick candidate.
But the standout moment to me came against Arkansas in the Sweet Sixteen.
The Razorbacks had cut a large deficit down to five points. On two straight possessions, the Blue Devils gave Banchero the ball in an isolation and trusted him to get two critical baskets to extend the lead. He made them with ease.
His footwork and basketball sense to score are probably the best in this draft. For a Magic team that desperately needs a top scorer, this is the guy I think the Magic should be targeting if they land a top pick.
Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft Version 1.0
The biggest question in this NBA Draft will be what the league does with Chet Holmgren.
On one hand, he is probably the one prospect in this draft who has truly generational talent. He is an expert shot blocker and solid defender with guard skills at 7-feet tall. The age of the unicorn came with Kristaps Porzingis and Chet Holmgren is really an extension of that.
He plays like New York Knicks Porzingis. He can step out and hit threes, finish above the rim, run in transition, block shots. The whole thing.
But then comes the questions about his weight and durability.
Holmgren is rail-thin — listed at less than 200 pounds. Certainly, being in an NBA weight training program will help him put on some muscle. He will fill out his body. But he still has a thin frame and there are plenty of questions about how he can handle the physicality and pounding of the NBA.
If Porzingis’ career is any indication, the injury concerns should be real. And while Porzingis is still an effective player today — he averaged 22.1 points per game with a 53.1-percent effective field goal percentage in his 17 games with the Washington Wizards after the trade deadline — he is not the player he was in New York.
That should raise some concern for Holmgren, but it should not scare them off completely. Holmgren is still a really solid player even with the questions surrounding him.
People are going to see what they want to see with him.
For the Detroit Pistons, they are set on the wing with Cade Cunningham. They need a bigger player to complement him (and Saddiq Bey). Holmgren is perfect for that as a shot-blocker and as a floor spacer. He would come into the Detroit ecosystem with little pressure to lead the team and he could do that with a bruising center in Isaiah Stewart to take on the bigger players in the league.
The Pistons would be a perfect fit for a team like the Pistons.
Who the Orlando Magic Pick: Chet Holmgren
The Orlando Magic should not be afraid to select Chet Holmgren at any stage of the draft. He is a potentially game-changing and defense-warping player. And that is the biggest thing the Orlando Magic need to chase in this draft.
Someone who is going to make defenses focus on that player and create space for others. Holmgren, like Banchero, can be that guy. Probably more than any other player in this draft class.
The Magic have Wendell Carter to provide that defensive backstop that Chet Holmgren will need. Both can spread out to the 3-point line too and that should help with spacing offensively, especially if Carter continues to improve.
The Magic played Wendell Carter and Mo Bamba together to some moderate success — especially with their other starting players. There is at least some proof of concept that both can survive in that ecosystem.
Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft Version 1.0
If you are a bit confused as to who Shaedon Sharpe is, no one would blame you. Sharpe has been kept behind lock and key for the whole year.
He was never declared ineligible for the season, but Kentucky kept Shaedon Sharpe out for the season out of fears the NCAA would declare him ineligible for the season after he enrolled a year early.
If he had played, he might have been considered the best prospect in this draft. At least, that is what the draft experts might tell you. With Sharpe officially declaring he is in this year’s NBA Draft with the intention of staying in, everyone is going to be trying to get some more information on him.
Sharpe has good size for a guard and good athleticism for someone his size. He can be crafty around the rim.
Sharpe also has decent 3-point range. He was taking NBA 3-pointers at the high school level. Which is as much a sign of how much more talent he had than his competition.
That is ultimately the big question for someone like Sharpe. He has not played competitive basketball during a critical year of his life.
The Oklahoma City Thunder certainly need everything. And while they seem like they love the long-armed potential of someone like Chet Holmgren, if he is not on the board they need some guard help with plenty of young bigs they are trying to fit in.
A backcourt of Shaedon Sharper, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey has a lot of size and playmaking chops. The Thunder are still trying to collect stars. That is the Sam Presti way.
Who the Orlando Magic Pick: Keegan Murray
The Orlando Magic are hunting for a star. That might well be guys like Shaedon Sharpe or Jaden Ivey. But those guys offer a lot more risk than the guys at the very top. And the Magic should be looking for contributors too.
I have the feeling they are very high on Iowa forward Keegan Murray. He is older than other players in the Draft, but I do not think that is necessarily a detriment — look at Mikal Bridges and Desmond Bane.
He is a great shooter and a great athlete. He gets a bonus for checking all the usual boxes this front office likes.
It is hard not to like Murray, even if his upside to becoming a star is less.
Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft Version 1.0
There is a lot of Jaden Ivey slander going on — including from me — and I think Ivey is going to become the biggest victim of the NBA Draft talk that tends to look at players’ flaws than their successes. His success in this draft might also be tied to how far the Memphis Grizzlies go since Ja Morant seems to be the popular player comp.
Ivey is very good. Let’s make that clear. He is not the player Morant is, but the comparison is apt.
Ivey is averaging 17.3 points per game and 3.1 assists per game while shooting 46.0-percent from the floor and 35.8-percent from beyond the arc. It was an impressive run.
He is as good off the dribble as any player in this draft. And for a player his size, he has great explosion and burst to get to the basket and finish at the rim.
Ivey still has a lot he can offer a team.
The big question is his shooting. He will need to become a better 3-point shooter. And even though he was on the ball a lot, he disappeared a lot of times for Purdue. Especially in big moments.
For the Indiana Pacers, they are set with Tyrese Haliburton and even to some extent with Buddy Hield. Another guard may not be the right play completely. But they have reportedly been open to trading Malcolm Brogdon and they should take the best player to complement Haliburton a bit more.
The Pacers could easily take a Keegan Murray here instead. But going for the upside is still the play at this point.
Who the Orlando Magic Should Pick: Keegan Murray
Having said that, I would still stick with Keegan Murray for the reasons I stated above. Murray gives the Magic a sure shooter and someone who can step in and contribute theoretically pretty quickly.
I think Murray could very well be a sleeper. But the upside is definitely lower than players like Shaedon Sharpe or Jaden Ivey.
I am just very bullish on Ivey because of his poor shooting. If he is not dominating the ball or becomes a team’s best scorer, he reminds me of guys like Dennis Smith Jr. who had all the talent and athleticism but could not find the secondary skills to make it in the NBA.
Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft Version 1.0
The Portland Trail Blazers might be the perfect place for someone like Keegan Murray to land. He is a veteran player with a good 3-point stroke and defensive instincts.
Portland certainly has to hope this is a pit stop out of the playoffs and not something permanent. They have Damian Lillard set to come back from injury. And Anfernee Simons coming off a breakout year. They should still be a team with playoff aspirations.
Murray with his experience and shooting should be able to give them the support they need.
Murray averaged 23.5 points per game while shooting 39.8-percent from beyond the arc in his sophomore year. He was a stellar shooter as part of Iowa’s high-powered offense. Murray should slot in wherever the Blazers need him.
The Blazers could use his defensive length too after trading away Norman Powell. This feels like a perfect fit for them.
Who the Orlando Magic should pick: Bennedict Mathurin
Bennedict Mathurin is going to be an interesting player to watch in this draft. He has the size and length to be a great defender, as he was at Arizona. And he has shown a ton of improvement as a 3-point shooter in his sophomore year with the Wildcats.
Mathurin checks a lot of boxes for the Magic. He has length and defensive instincts. He very well could be a player who shoots up the board.
The question for Mathurin is just how much better is he going to be. Can he be more than a 3-and-D player or is he just going to be a role player. Everyone feels pretty confident he is at least that. But there are definitely a few people who think Mathurin can take a further step up in the near future.
Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft Version 1.0
Just spoke about Bennedict Mathurin in the last slide. But this is a guy who averaged 17.7 points per game while shooting 36.9-percent from beyond the arc. That is a good bump for a player who is coming into his own and showed he could do a lot in the NCAA Tournament.
A.J. Griffin is probably the most solid prospect who can do a lot of different things. He is a decent shooter and solid defender. But Griffin is not likely to do a whole lot more than that. This is the extremely safe pick of this draft without a ton more upside. Entering a strong ecosystem will help.
Ochai Ogbaji won the NCAA Tournament’s most outstanding player. While he might be a senior, he is a solid player who knows exactly what he is good at. That is the exact kind of player the San Antonio Spurs have always gravitated toward.
Jalen Duren is a solid center who will provide energy whether he is starting or coming off the bench. He is a big body who can defend and rebound well. Just do not expect a ton more offensively out of him.
Johnny Davis is a solid scorer. But he had a big downturn in January and February that slowed his momentum.
Tari Eason is a do-everything forward who is going to shoot up draft boards for his versatility and rebounding.
Nikola Jovic is perhaps the best international prospect. You will see him go all the way up and down draft boards. He is an incredibly gifted offensive player. But not much for defense.
Jeremy Sochan is a solid defender and decent offensive player. He should fit right in with a team that has playoff aspirations.
We will be back for another mock draft and big board as we get closer to the draft.