The Orlando Magic try to shake off a rough third quarter and get a second crack at the San Antonio Spurs after losing their season opener to them.
Orlando Magic (2-7) vs. San Antonio Spurs (2-6)
Time/TV: 7 p.m./Bally Sports Florida
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Line: Spurs by 3.5
Tickets: $10-$228 on StubHub
2021 Season Series: Spurs 104, Magic 77 in San Antonio on March 12; Spurs 120, Magic 97 in Orlando on April 12
2022 Season Series: Spurs 123, Magic 97 in San Antonio on Oct. 20; Tonight in Orlando
| Pace | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% | FTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio | 102.1 | 106.4 | 106.4 | 52.6 | 25.6 | 13.8 | 17.8 |
| Orlando | 98.1 | 103.2 | 111.4 | 50.2 | 28.1 | 17.1 | 24.2 |
OMD Prediction
People who are into analytics tend to view net rating as a better indicator of how good a team is rather than their record. A team that tends to score more than their points per 100 possessions than they give up tend to be good. A team with a +0.0 net rating is supposed to be .500 essentially.
So the San Antonio Spurs’ record is a bit confusing. San Antonio has an even net rating early in the season but a poor 2-6 record. So what’s the deal? The San Antonio Spurs have a 26-point win over the Orlando Magic as a huge outlier on their record along with several close losses in the process. San Antonio has proven to be a pesky team but one that is still looking to get over the hump.
At the very least, San Antonio has shown the team will compete. That is where Orlando is. And the Magic are a different team than they were earlier in the season. San Antonio provides a lot of toughness and size defensively. It will be a challenge for Orlando.
3 Keys To Watch
Flipping the switch
Wendell Carter acknowledged after Wednesday’s loss to the Boston Celtics that the Orlando Magic struggle with switching defenses. The Celtics switched every screen (even off-ball screens) in the second half and suffocated the Magic’s offense. They could not get any separation and succumbed to the pressure in the third quarter.
Orlando will have a lot of work to do to figure out how to break down that defense. The Spurs also do a fair amount of switching and that bothered the team in the first matchup, especially when they turned it up in the third quarter. Orlando has lost a lot of games just after halftime for sure.
The Magic said they have to do a better job initiating second actions off the ball to make the defense work and miscommunicate beyond the action on the ball. They do not want teams to be able to load up on the ball.
How Orlando adjusts to the switching schemes will determine this game.
Rebounding… again
It feels like beating a dead horse here, but the Orlando Magic need to rebound better. The numbers are getting better on this front. But a big reason for the San Antonio Spurs’ big win on opening night was the rebounding.
San Antonio grabbed 13 offensive rebounds for 19 points in the game. The Magic ended up doing better in both stats for the game, but the Spurs got them when it mattered. And Jakob Poeltl grabbed eight offensive rebounds (he will miss the game while in health and safety protocols).
Orlando for the year is now 22nd in offensive rebound rate, giving up a 28.6-percent rate. The team gives up 14.3 second-chance points per game, the fourth-worst mark in the league. It all points to the Magic needing to be better at rebounding. It has to be a key focus for the team.
Clutch time testing
So far this season, the Orlando Magic have not played many clutch minutes — just two minutes in three clutch games. Their games have largely been decided before the fourth quarter. We think Cole Anthony is likely the guy finishing games — although Orlando has been willing to put the ball in Jalen Suggs’ hands.
We have not seen the Magic put in the crucible of close games. The loss to the Charlotte Hornets is the closest the team has come to having to win a game late. The New York Knicks game was close for a while, but the ball was already rolling downhill when the league activates its clutch stats. Orlando won that game with a great fourth quarter.
The San Antonio Spurs are the opposite. They have played 20 clutch minutes across six games. They are just 1-5 in those minutes. And San Antonio is looking for someone to be the closer or be more consistent in those closing moments.
Dejounte Murray is the best bet. But it has been an uphill climb for them. And this is more likely the reason the team’s record does not reflect their net rating.