The most valuable piece of real estate for any cap-ologist or executive planning is the rookie contract.
When players enter the league as first-round picks, every player is on intentionally deflated contracts. Future stars taken with the first overall pick are limited to a $12-million salary. Fifth overall pick Jalen Suggs will eat up only $6.6 million in cap room and top off at $9.2 million in the final year of his contract.
The Magic, just like most teams at the top of the draft, are going to extract a whole lot more value from Suggs.
The same goes for the other side of the coin. With only two years guaranteed and team options on the final two years, there is an escape from these contracts if players do not pan out or reach their potential. Even if they stay on the roster, for the most part, they are light weights on the team’s cap room.
The challenge when it comes to rookie players is figuring out how much to pay them when their contracts expire. And this is where the real art takes place.
The Orlando Magic have questions with two young centers who are set to enter restricted free agency. The risk is nobody knows how to value them as they hit the market.
At the end of that rookie contract, a player is no longer purely potential. They have some years of information and play behind them. With salary next to their name, they are expected to produce at a new level.
Former Magic general manager Rob Hennigan said at one point in his tenure he believed a player is essentially who they are going to be in this league — a star, a starter, a bench player or hanging on — by the end of that rookie contract. After four years, he seemed to feel a team can evaluate and value its players.
Getting that valuation right is critical to any team. Overpay a player coming off their rookie contract, and it ties a lock around a team’s neck and makes it harder to maneuver and improve the team.
These are still at least partially investments in the future — players do not stop growing at restricted free agency with players entering the league at younger ages. But getting that valuation right is critical.
This is part of where the Magic find themselves now with two potential restricted free agents due up at the end of the season.
It was reported earlier in the year that executives believe the Magic will re-sign Wendell Carter before the extension deadline in October at a contract worth somewhere near $17 million per year. There was nothing too concrete about the report.
Orlando Magic
But the idea brought up questions about how the Magic should appropriately value their still relatively new center. And it may be one of the most consequential decisions the Magic make this offseason and throughout this season.
With two centers about to hit restricted free agency with uncertain track records under their belt, the Magic are on the verge of making a major investment with incomplete information. It could well be a situation that ties up their cap room and either bring a massive return or an albatross around their neck.
Typically, three years into a career, a team has an idea of how their rookies are progressing. But for both Wendell Carter and Mohamed Bamba, there is only uncertainty.
Neither has quite lived up to his billing.
While Carter has shown some consistent defensive level, injuries and an inconsistent offensive output have slowed his development. Bamba has dealt with injuries, but his talent and raw physical attributes still could make him a game-changing center.
The question is when will they turn the corner? And how much is any team willing to invest in that growth?
These are some of the big questions facing both of these young players as they graduate out of their rookie contracts and into the wider world.
As we have been doing with the Magic’s young players, we are going to look to statistics to answer some of these questions before the season begins. By looking at player comparisons, perhaps, the Magic can get a better understanding of how to value these players.