The Orlando Magic are thinking a lot these days about the right way to rebuild.
In reality, it is impossible to predict the future or exactly the path the team might walk. It is impossible even to say whether this rebuild will work — or what exactly success is or how it should be measured beyond winning a championship.
Some rebuilds come together quickly, aided perhaps by the luck of winning the NBA Draft Lottery. Others have clear steps forward but lots of trouble and uncertainty about exactly where they go next.
Inevitably, many of these rebuilds turn on two things — finding the star to build around and picking the right moment to push their chips into the middle.
The Orlando Magic are starting their rebuild. They should look closely at why the Phoenix Suns were successful last year as a clear model for their rebuild ahead.
This year’s playoffs seemed to bring to the front the potential of rebuilds and how quickly they can coalesce. The Phoenix Suns and Atlanta Hawks’ sudden burst into the conference finals made a lot of teams believe they were merely one piece away from contention in this current NBA landscape.
That motivated a lot of the moves that occurred this offseason.
But both the Hawks and Suns were products of meticulous planning and building around their superstar players. They picked the right time to push their chips to the middle and build their team.
Atlanta’s move was certainly a bit riskier and nearly backfired on the team this season. Phoenix though had a bit more confidence they were at the right stage.
The way many teams are built these days is not through free agency. Players have done a good job under the new collective bargaining agreement maneuvering themselves to their desired team before their contract runs up — signing wher ethey want anyway with full Bird Rights.
Dwight Howard was one of the first players to do this when he dictated where the Magic would trade him in 2012. But players have since refined this method. Unless you are the Los Angeles Lakers or Brooklyn Nets, players are not flocking to move to these cities.
The Suns understood this. They knew they had Booker — and time running out to prove to him they could build a winner. They just needed proof of concept before going after the big fish.
Phoenix’s 8-0 run in the Bubble that nearly put the team into the Play-In Tournament and broke their decade without a playoff appearance. But that showed the Suns what they could do.
Like the Hawks, they felt this was the time to strike.
Think about how the Suns built their team.
They drafted Booker 13th overall in the 2015 Draft. Deandre Ayton was the first pick in 2018. Mikal Bridges was acquired in a draft night trade in 2018. Cameron Johnson was a surprise pick in 2019.
Phoenix Suns
Phoenix had drafted with only one high Lottery pick (Ayton) despite repeated trips to the Lottery a solid core of role players with Boooker stepping into true stardom. The team coalesced to make its run and knock on the door of the postseason.
Phoenix understood it needed the right veterans to go with the team’s coach to take that next step.
What Phoenix had was some big salary they were willing to move (Ricky Rubio and Kelly Oubre) and a willing trade partner looking to dump its own big salary. Going in on Chris Paul — without giving up any draft capital in this rare instance with the Oklahoma City Thunder — felt like the clear thing the Phoenix Suns needed to get over the top.
Nobody expected the Suns to become a championship contender. But everyone understood the Suns were good and they needed a leader and veteran like Chris Paul — and Jae Crowder, also signed last offseason — to return to the Playoffs and start getting the most out of Booker.
This proof of concept before acquiring the big star — whether it was in a trade or free agency — is a path that is far easier to replicate. It is a formula every rebuilding team can use.
The Magic are obviously a long way from this final step the Suns took. But maybe they are not so far from taking that step. The team is certainly already trying to amass the players and contracts they would need to make that final step.
For small markets like Orlando, the team has to be prepared to make that all-in move whenever the team appears ready. The first step is getting the team ready for this all-important final step.
The team is not even certain if they have the star to build around.
That is where their last rebuild failed as Victor Oladipo or any of their other draft picks emerged into a true centerpiece star. Orlando getting the most out of Nikola Vucevic got the team into the playoffs, but nobody saw the team inching beyond the first round with him as the team’s best player.
Drafting Jalen Suggs was an important first step. He has star potential and everyone is excited for what he can bring to the team. The Magic are still going to have to sort through what they have with other young players on the roster — especially Jonathan Isaac as he recovers from his injury.
Orlando Magic
It is also fairly clear the Magic are likely expecting to spend another year in the Lottery to add another key player to the team through the draft.
The task for this beginning stage of the rebuild is clear though: Continue to collect and develop talent so that Orlando has something workable that just needs that last player to get them over the top.
This was the plan in the previous iteration Jeff Weltman was building, the team’s young players just stagnated too much after picking up their rookie extensions. Orlando missed its window to push all in, perhaps, or could not duplicate its success from 2019 to find the right “all-in” deal.
The Suns essentially executed the exact rebuild the Magic have always been trying to do.
In order to do that then, Orlando needs proof of concept on its roster. The team needs to build a team that can function and make the playoffs — or just miss it with signs of clear improvement — before the team can even think about making an all-in move.
That may not be something that happens this year, but it is still important Orlando keeps this goal in mind or else become a constant Lottery-ringer team without hope of climbing up.
It is likely why the Magic are probably going to look to punt or rent the cap space they created for next offseason. It will be ar more important to be in positiont o make a trade rather than to make a splash in free agency anyway.
The Suns were a great example of team building. Their gamble on Paul paid off with him exceeding all their expectations and agreeing to stay and help continue the growth the team showed dating back to the bubble in 2020.
Orlando and every other rebuilding team hopes to follow that path. But it takes getting that first step right. It takes patience waiting for the right player to go all-in on.
Most importantly, it means creating proof of concept with homegrown stars before looking to the market to complete the picture. Teams that do things the other way around often do not make the progress they hope for.