The Orlando Magic know how important this draft was.
The team made it that when it pulled the plug on its playoff-level team, trading away its top three scorers to go all-in on the Draft. Even before then, the happenstance of their poor record made this year’s draft a critical moment to add cheap, young talent to the team to try to escape the lower rungs of the playoffs.
Ever since it was clear the Magic would have one of the top odds to win the NBA Draft Lottery, the team has been knee-deep in the draft process.
There was a palpable disappointment from the fan base when the Magic dropped to No. 5 in the NBA Draft Lottery and president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman’s face said it all on the broadcast.
The team still has to make the best of the situation and find the best player it can. Even if the Magic are not grabbing the consensus top-four players in this draft, there is still a really good player available to the team.
The Orlando Magic may not get a top prospect in this Draft. But either way the team should be focused on finding the player and person they want rather than sticking to convention.
The time before the draft is spent by media types like us reviewing every prospect we think is in the team’s range and put together big boards and mock drafts to try to get some context for what the draft might end up being.
At the end of the day, teams are not always picking on needs or anything the media can perceive. At the end of the day, teams are picking people and players they believe in.
The Magic are in a strong position in this draft despite falling on Draft Lottery day. They have two top-10 picks. But their strategy should remain the same.
The goal for this draft is not to follow conventional wisdom or go with what the “experts” say. The goal should be to pick their guy. The Magic need to pick the person they believe in, no matter who that is or what role that person might play.
And to some extent, fans need to trust management’s judgment. It is a decision they have to live with.
This is a draft that will be foundational to the team. And, yes, the Magic should be seeking the most talented player who might become a central star to the team. But, at the end of the day, the team needs a player and a person they are prepared to make that investment in.
It does not matter who that person is.
Meeting the consensus
The general consensus in mock drafts and big boards is the Orlando Magic will land on drafting G-League Ignite forward Jonathan Kuminga. Kuminga was considered a potential top pick in this draft — and a potential top overall pick in next year’s draft if he did not reclassify to the class of 2020 — before struggling some in the G-League bubble.
But that consensus is starting to waver. Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer reported the Magic are “high on Scottie Barnes” with the fifth pick. That could lead Kuminga to slip as low as No. 7 and perhaps even still be on the board when the Magic pick at No. 8. It would be hard to imagine the Magic taking both Scottie Barnes and Jonathan Kuminga — especially with Jonathan Isaac and Chuma Okeke already on the roster.
Orlando Magic
Picking solely on talent is not the way forward. The team needs to make sure their draft selection will play and fit into the future. That makes doing the background research and finding their person all the more important.
Orlando has already had Barnes in for a workout. There is no word yet on when the team will meet with Kuminga. But both the workout and interview process will be critical as the Magic seek their player. They need to figure out who these people are and how they fit into the team and whether they truly have the makeup to fit this rebuild.
Kuminga might be the better overall talent and the player with more star potential. But if the Magic do not see that in him, they should have no problem bucking trends. If Barnes is truly their guy as this report suggests, they should draft him and not think twice.
The same could be said if they believe someone else that no one is thinking of — like UConn’s James Bouknight or Tennessee’s Keon Johnson. If the Magic believe someone else is their guy they should take them too.
Bucking the trend
Orlando has done that already.
Nobody had the team selecting Chuma Okeke with the 16th pick in the 2019 Draft. Plenty gave him a first-round grade but thought his torn ACL would scare teams until later in the Draft. The going thought entering that draft would be to take Nickeil Alexander-Walker (who ended up going to the New Orleans Pelicans one pick later).
The Magic might have wanted to defer the pick anyway to preserve what little cap room they had that offseason. But they also had proprietary analytics that helped point them toward Okeke. And draft analysts all loved the Okeke pick, even if they thought he would go much later in the draft.
Okeke’s overall numbers when he finally made his debut last year were solid and the Magic appear to have found a solid role player at minimum with him. And it is easy to see Okeke is a high-character person willing to work and integrate into the team.
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He checked all the boxes for the Magic both on the court and off the court.
Orlando has had only one miss in Jeff Weltman’s draft history among its top picks — Mohamed Bamba has struggled through his first three seasons with the team with injuries and the shifting goals for the team. That was a pick that generally met convention.
That does not mean Bamba did not check boxes off the court as much as everyone could see the potential on the court. Nobody’s draft process is perfect. Everyone is guessing when it comes to the draft. Teams are just gathering as much information as they can as they learn about these players.
Best guesses
These mock draft and ranking exercises are valuable. They do provide a bit of perspective and spark discussion. Front offices do much of the same thing for the same purpose. They tier players into groups based on how good they are and play through different draft scenarios.
But they are ultimately always off base. Nobody gets a big board exactly right and mock drafts are often wildly incorrect — getting five or even six picks right in a 30-team mock draft is usually a pretty strong accomplishment. It only takes one team going off-board to throw the whole thing into chaos.
Teams are also notorious for putting out disinformation and smoke screens to the media to try to shape the draft in their favor. If teams are not doing, agents might be to get their client to a preferred location.
And we know the Orlando Magic are notoriously tight-lipped with any information. It is probably safe to say that anything coming out about the Magic is not coming from the Magic. Orlando plays things very close to the vest.
But the one thing everyone should be certain of is that Orlando will take the player and person it thinks fit the team best. That may not mean the Magic go the way everyone is thinking. It means the team is going to take the player it ranks highest.
That is ultimately all that matters.
Orlando’s draft-day decision may end up being a shocker. If the Magic are convinced James Bouknight or Keon Johnson or Moses Moody is their future star or the best player on their board instead of Jonathan Kuminga or Scottie Barnes, they should not risk losing him at No. 8 and just take him at No. 5.
It is far more important the Magic get the person they believe in than go with what the crowd says they should do.
In the end, history will determine whether they made the right pick or not. Draft day grades or expectations do not have the final say.