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Orlando Magic’s struggle to hold onto leads holding team back

By Seth Arora

The Orlando Magic have looked better throughout the season, but have also struggled it seems more to close games out and hold onto big leads.(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
The Orlando Magic have looked better throughout the season, but have also struggled it seems more to close games out and hold onto big leads.(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /
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Omari Spellman, Golden State Warriors, Gary Clark, Orlando Magic
The Golden State Warriors erased a 13-point deficit off the tip to take a 13-point lead of their own in their win. (Photo by Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images) /

Behind the Numbers

The general numbers tell us the Orlando Magic do not handle big leads particularly well, but more detailed numbers expand on the troubling issue.

First, the comebacks happen fast.

This is especially true for Magic advantages of 10-14 points, which are far more likely to turn into a Magic deficit than an expanded lead. As eye-opening as it is to realize that a 13-point lead is conceivably unsafe even if only 3:00 remain, what is even more unnerving is if you remove the extended comeback by the Toronto Raptors on November 29, the average duration of a comeback from a 10-14 point deficit is 2:29.

Translation: if the Magic have a 14-point lead and the opponent scores, it might be a good time to take the dog for a walk if you are the type to pull their hair out over a blown lead. That lead tends to disappear fairly quickly.

A more detailed look into these lost leads also shows for the most part, the Magic lose these leads in the second half, often in the third quarter.

It is likely not a coincidence that the Magic boast the third-worst second-half 3-point percentage defense in the league. This is also consistent with the zany fluctuations in the Magic’s net rating from quarter-to-quarter (spoiler alert: No other team is as up-and-down from quarter-to-quarter, throughout a game more than the Magic).

More from Analysis

A deeper dive into the numbers also shows these comebacks are not necessarily authored by the league’s big dogs.

The Magic have allowed the New York Knicks, Atlanta Hawks, Golden State Warriors (twice), Washington Wizards (twice) and Cleveland Cavaliers (twice) to fight their way back into ball games on an almost routine basis. If the Magic build a 13-point lead over the Knicks on Feb. 6, please keep the victory cigar sealed.

It is not all doom and gloom, though.

In recent games, blown leads have not translated to losses as much as earlier in the season.

Despite the Golden State game on Jan. 18, Orlando has held sizable leads over teams in seven games since we rang in the New Year. Of those seven games, Orlando lost only one (Saturday’s loss vs. Golden State). In all others, the Magic either fought to secure the victory or cruised to an easy W (the latter happened twice against the Wizards).

In the previous 20 games where the Magic held a big lead of any kind, they wound up surrendering eight losses.

Thus, as frustrating as it is to watch — even in January — the team’s advantages dwindle to dust time and time again, being able to fight through that adversity and secure the victory despite giving up the lead (see Jan. 16 against the Lakers) shows signs of maturity and growth that hopefully remains through the end of the season.