Nikola Vucevic’s free agent market is getting trickier to determine for Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic are no guarantee to retain Nikola Vucevic in free agency this year. But his market is getting much more difficult to predict.

No matter how anyone wants to shake up or determine the Orlando Magic’s offseason and short-term future, it all seems to start with Nikola Vucevic.

The Magic’s starting center for the past seven years has drawn his share of criticism and praise throughout his tenure with the team. He was often cited as the reason the team had a ceiling on it because of his poor defense and inconsistent shooting or even his unwillingness to get physical. Yet he continued to produce counting stats and be a big reason the Magic could remain competitive in any shape it looked like.

But this year he seemed to turn everything on its head.

He proved himself to be a capable defender, improving his positioning and focus on that end to anchor a top-10 defense. And with the offense running through him, Nikola Vucevic thrived, averaging a career-high 20.8 points per game and earning his first All-Star selection.

The Magic made the playoffs largely on Vucevic’s consistency, something he provided offensively for much of the last seven years. His impact on the team was undeniable.

Whether the Toronto Raptors threw extra guys at him or not, their strategy was built on frustrating and stopping Vucevic. Cutting him off threw the Magic completely off. He was vital to the team’s breakthrough season and he was virtually absent from the postseason.

Still, Vucevic did enough to force the league to take some notice on him and perhaps change some of the calculus for the Magic.

His starring season came against the backdrop of his impending free agency. And that picture has always been complicated for the Magic.

Under normal circumstances, re-signing Vucevic would seem like a no-brainer. He was an All-Star and the most vital cog on the team. But this is no easy decision to bring him back, and it was assumed Vucevic might face a crowded market willing to bring him in.

Planning their future

The Magic have a potential starting center developing on the bench behind him. The team knows Vucevic’s shortcomings all too well. And it seemed increasingly unlikely for the Magic to offer Vucevic a long-term deal. Others would be lining up to do so.

Under whatever terms the Magic seek to keep Vucevic it still seemed like they would be hoping no other team would be willing to offer Vucevic more than they were. They could at least stay competitive with their offer and bring him back to help groom Mohamed Bamba behind him.

Free agency brings the opportunity for change for any player. They get to control where they play and decide what is important to them.

While Vucevic certainly has an affinity for Orlando, where he has spent the majority of his career, he also recognizes that at 29 years old, this could be his last chance at a big contract.

Especially considering he signed what many believed to be a sweetheart deal four years ago when he signed a four-year, $48 million extension. Orlando got Vucevic on a bargain even before his All-Star turn.

The thinning market

But that crowded market everyone anticipated does not seem to be as full as initially thought.

It has long been assumed the Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks would be among the chief teams to chase after Vucevic this offseason. At some point in the season, Marc Stein of The New York Times reported the Mavericks’ interest in Vucevic was overstated.

Now, it appears, the Kings’ interest might also be a bit overstated, according to James Ham of NBC Sports California.

It is unclear who else might chase after Vucevic — the LA Clippers, a team in need of a starter-caliber center — but the market seems to be as uncertain for him as it is for the Magic. And it seems for the teams with massive amount of cap room — like the Los Angeles Lakers, perhaps — Vucevic might be a secondary target.

Orlando is no cinch to bring him back, something that is odd for a player of his importance and impact. But the team will still do what it can to bring him back on a deal that works for them and their timeline.

Vucevic, for as solid as he is offensively and the stellar season he turned in 2019, was never considered the future.

The team drafted Mohamed Bamba with the sixth overall pick in 2018, envisioning his long wingspan anchoring the team’s defense and stepping out beyond the arc to shoot from the outside.

Even after Vucevic’s All-Star season and his importance to the team last year, it was still hard to see the team committing to him long term with that backdrop. The spot is getting groomed for Bamba and the team is not going to give up on him, even after an expectedly mediocre rookie season.

How to move forward

It seems unlikely the Magic would offer him a four-year max deal — not that any other team would either — but it seems harder to believe they would be willing to give him a four-year deal either without team-friendly terms. They are clearly keeping their spot open for Bamba.

This is all something Vucevic has to consider as he weighs his options.

But if some of those other options are off the table, then that changes some of the equation. If the Kings and Mavericks are not lining up to offer a big contract, all of a sudden Vucevic’s market looks very different.

It might be a situation where Vucevic is left waiting for the first tier guys to come off the board. That could either give the Magic more time to fish elsewhere or to wrap up Vucevic before anyone else sets the market.

Vucevic is certainly one of the best centers available on the market. Teams like the Kings and Clippers who need centers should be looking hard at him.

But there are now other centers on the market like Jonas Valanciunas who might depress Vucevic’s market. And Julius Randle, as expected, opted out of the final year of his two-year deal to enter free agency.

Teams might view both players as potentially cheaper options.

Vucevic was always going to command a contract north of $20 million. Some people might have thought he could get north of $25 million and approaching max room. It only takes one team offering that kind of a big contract, after all.

And perhaps the report — fairly open — the Kings are not as interested in Vucevic is an attempt to depress his market some publicly. Then again, that kind of a statement might also be an invitation for other teams to swoop in and join the market.

It seems the Magic probably understand the number and years they are not willing to surpass when it comes to Vucevic. Orlando will have to hold firm to that line if the team wants to retain him and begin working on plans to replace Vucevic if his market surpasses that number.

But at this point, it is hard to get a sense of just where Vucevic’s market is. It is hard to figure out who is willing to make the big investment in Vucevic that he is surely going to get come June 30.