The Orlando Magic’s first quarters matter, their starts are meaningful

The Orlando Magic have their struggles at the end of games. Those are well noted. But it is their starts that matter more in setting a tone for the game.

Critics of the NBA have long said that no one has to watch the games until the final two minutes. That is where the good stuff is and games are decided when that time pressure is growing.

Looking at the Orlando Magic, it might be easy to fall into this trap. The team is 18-25 in games within five points in the final five minutes. The 43 close games the Magic have played this year are a league-high. It would probably be easy to say this is where the Magic struggle most and where their games are decided.

No one would likely argue that is incorrect. The Magic have to close games better. Their -8.8 net rating in close games is the fifth-worst in the league. Orlando struggles to create good shots and can find itself quickly collapsing. Close games are literal nail-biters for the team where every game matters.

Coach Steve Clifford would dispute some of this at least. After recent losses, he said he liked the team’s late-game execution and the losses largely came down to missing those opportunities.

He would argue instead that much of the Magic’s issues stem from a moment much earlier. Really any team’s struggles come much earlier.

The old golf adage applies: No tournament can be won in the first quarter, but it certainly can be lost.

Clifford said in the league today, the first quarter is a better indicator of whether a team is going to win or not than late-game numbers. It is truly a lot easier to play from ahead than behind.

At least, that is how the theory goes. The Magic have their own troubles holding onto leads throughout the season with several notable mid-game collapses and lost double-digit leads.

But nothing has mattered more to the Magic lately than their first-quarter play. With the Magic’s offensive issues, they will struggle to make up ground because they do not have the firepower offensively. Playing with a bit of a cushion has always suited this team.

And that is at least part of why the Magic have found some success this season.

Orlando has a 107.9 offensive rating and 100.6 defensive rating in first quarters this season. The team’s +7.3 net rating in first quarters is the fifth-best first-quarter mark in the league. The defensive rating is the best in the league.

It is safe to say the Magic come out ready to play more often than not. Orlando does not shirk those first 12 minutes. That helps stake a lead for the team.

It makes sense, of course. The Magic’s starting lineup has been one of their best lineups this season — a +4.6 net rating this season. But the tone they set usually gives the Magic some cushion to work with.

Since the All-Star Break, the first quarter has truly been a make-or-break quarter in a lot of ways.

In Orlando’s six wins since the All-Star Break, the team has a massive +30.6 net rating in the first quarter (115.3/84.8 offense/defensive rating split). But in losses, that number falls to -2.0 (112.4 offensive rating/114.4 defensive rating split). That is not enough to bury a team, but it is enough to put the Magic behind and give the bench a lot more responsibility.

Again, it is clear the Magic rarely play themselves out of games with poor first quarters, just like it is clear the Magic do not win games in the first quarter.

There are plenty of examples since the All-Star Break of strong first quarters the Magic have let slip away. The game at the New York Knicks, for example, was one of the best first quarters the Orlando Magic had played all year. But their focus defensively and shot-making in the fourth quarter waned and the Knicks stole the victory.

Orlando certainly can fall into traps later in the game. Especially as their bench filters in.

According to HoopsStats, the Magic’s reserves have a -3.2 net efficiency, 23rd in the league. That is up from an earlier point in the year. After the All-Star Break, that number is up to -0.5 net rating (15th in the league).

Orlando is certainly better off the bench and more consistent. That is thanks in part to a rebalancing of the rotation and Isaiah Briscoe‘s emergence. But the Magic know they do not have a lot of depth to rely on.

Really what is important for the Magic is that they set a good defensive tone early on in the game. It is usually pretty clear to see what kind of game the Magic will have by how they defend early on.

Against the Cleveland Cavaliers in Cleveland on March 3, the Orlando Magic struggled to contain dribble penetration from the start of the game and they were chasing the Cavaliers or in a battle. Cleveland outscored Orlando 29-24 with a 120.8 defensive rating for Orlando. The tone for that game was set and the Magic could never get their defense back on track.

That turned out to be the only loss for the Magic by more than 10 points since January.

Against that same Cavaliers team on March 14, the Magic opened with a 36-20 first quarter and never looked back. It was a blowout from the beginning and the Magic set the tone defensively.

It is clear to see what a difference a strong first quarter can make. Especially against a team like the Cavaliers that has little to play for. Putting in a strong first quarter and setting that tone to carry throughout the game can make a big difference.

Orlando Magic

Needing to play catch up throughout the game can lead to a lot of trouble.

Take the loss to the Washington Wizards from last week as another example. The Magic trailed the Wizards only 29-28 after one quarter. But the team’s poor defensive tone was set, giving up 120.8 points per 100 possessions in the first 12 minutes.

Orlando would recover with a stellar defensive effort in the second half. But the game came down to making shots at the end and the Magic could not make shots. A better first quarter might have changed the whole tenor of the game and led to a comfortable win.

Plenty of games will come down to the end of games still. Even when the Magic have strong first quarters. But Orlando is a considerably better team when it wins the first quarter — 21-15 when leading after the first quarter overall and 9-21 when trailing.

There is a difference.

The biggest difference is the tone the Magic set. When they start the game off on the right foot, they are more resilient and can use that cushion better. More importantly, they simply play better.

The biggest lesson is to tune in early because the Magic often tell you how they will play in the first 12 minutes.