Jaren Jackson Jr. has all the skills of a modern NBA center. That potential has him among the top prospects in the Draft. Someone will bet on his future.
Every Draft, there is inevitably the one prospect that wows purely on his potential and athleticism alone. The production is there. As is the wow factor on the court. But not always consistently. The dream is to see what they can become. Especially when they are so young.
That is where Jaren Jackson Jr. fits in.
His play is impressive in the short bursts he actually gets consistent playing time. If Marvin Bagley III’s problem is he has too much offense and not enough defense and Mohamed Bamba’s problem is he has too much defense without enough offense, Jaren Jackson Jr. should lie somewhere in the middle.
But that middle is full of potential and very good.
Jackson’s per 40-minute numbers stand out more than anything else. He averaged 20.0 points per 40 minutes, 10.6 rebounds per 40 minutes and an astounding 5.5 blocks per 40 minutes. That all pops off the page and showed what kind of impact Jackson could have.
Jackson is a great shot blocker and a smart defender. He was not afraid to mix things up and make his presence felt in the paint.
And that athleticism translated to the offensive end too. He could put the ball on the floor and make some rudimentary moves, using his raw skill to get past defenders and to the basket. If that did not work, he was comfortable shooting from the perimeter.
With his length, it is easy to get wrapped up in all the potential he has inside. There is a lot to like about Jackson’s game. His potential burst out.
But, of course, no one plays 40 minutes per game. And Jackson certainly did not — settling in at 21.8 per game. Jackson, one of the youngest players in this Draft, was often an overeager defender. He fouled a lot, possibly by design, the Michigan State Spartans allowing him to use his energy to mix things up.
Whether Jackson can gain control will be the big question facing him as he enters the league. But everyone seems to believe the upside of him doing so is great. If he can reign in his youthful exuberance, then almost certainly he is a center that fits the modern age. He is a center who can step out and hit jumpers, defend the perimeter, defend the post and protect the rim.
What more could anyone want from a center?
The Good
Jaren Jackson Jr.’s raw counting stats (10.9 points, 5.8 rebounds per game) are not likely to jump off the page. He played a little more than half a game. Stretching them out to per 40 minutes or any length of regular playing time makes them look a little better.
He is the picture of a player who flies around the lane for blocks and protects the rim. Someone whose length and athleticism allows him to stick with guards on the perimeter.
It is on defense where Jackson will have his most immediate value.
Jackson is good at using his size to get rebounds and position himself on that end. And his presence on a college court was noticeable. He was someone opponents had to respect and watch out for.
He does not have the supreme length of Mohamed Bamba. But after Bamba, Jackson had the most impressive measurements for any big. At least among those likely to get drafted. Jackson is an impressive athlete in that way.
What sets him apart though is his burgeoning offensive skill.
Jackson is not a traditional back-to-the-basket big. He is comfortable working out of the high post and can put the ball on the floor and finish at the rim. His moves are still based mostly on his athleticism. He usually goes in a straight line to the rim. But his burst and control are impressive for a guy his size.
As Jackson gets more comfortable and gains more skill, he could become a dangerous weapon from anywhere on the floor. Whether that is working out of the high post or on the block.
But the modern NBA game is asking its bigs to do more. It wants them to shoot.
And Jackson can do that. He made 39.6 percent of his 3-pointers on 96 attempts. A small, but not insignificant sample size. This is the part of his game that might prove the most tantalizing.
Bigs who can protect the rim and hit 3-pointers are exceedingly rare. But that is the direction most teams are heading. Being able not only to spread the floor with five shooters but also have players who can defend all five positions. Jackson has that potential and it is why so many are so high on him.
The Bad
While there are a lot of signs Jaren Jackson Jr. could be one of the best players in this Draft and his potential is great, it is all potential at this point. His college stats and college play were something of a grab bag — moments of brilliance followed by moments of frustration.
Was some of that his role? Did Tom Izzo ask Jaren Jackson Jr. to play a certain style or a certain way to benefit his team? Jackson certainly was a not a featured player offensively. On the usually senior-laden Michigan State team, the offense ran through other players. It made sense for Izzo to use Jackson’s other skills more prominently.
Still, it is hard to ignore some concerning statistics.
Izzo only played him about 20 minutes per game. He was hardly getting the usual minutes for a starter. A big reason for that was some freshman inconsistency (remember he is one of the youngest players in this Draft overall). There is always a bit of youthful exuberance.
Still, 3.2 fouls per game in just more than 20 minutes per game is a little much. That projects out to just less than six fouls per 40 minutes. Essentially, Jackson would have fouled out if left to play major minutes.
Maybe this was part of the strategy. Izzo may have told Jackson to play with reckless abandon and just be a presence in the paint. Maybe Jackson is just overeager.
Regardless, Jackson could not stay on the floor. And shot blockers who do not understand positioning, get themselves into trouble quickly. Not just with fouls, but also with the very purpose they are in there for.
Jackson will have to learn how to gain control and discipline with his shot blocking to stay on the floor. And that is obviously the most important thing, he has to stay on the floor.
That control will come on the offensive end too. His game is still very raw. And he is prone to wild forays to the basket. It is all so inconsistent.
And his rebounding was not impressive. He posted fewer than 10 rebounds per 40 minutes. His slight frame still had him getting pushed around on the block.
And discipline here is also a big problem. Jackson has great length but is not overly explosive attacking the basket or leaping. That could hurt him as a rebounder in the NBA.
Control will be the key to Jackson unlocking his potential fully. If he can do that, he has a lot of positive tools.
Draft Sites Say
Jonathan Givony, ESPN
"The youngest player projected to be drafted, Jackson might have the highest ceiling in terms of his ability to affect the game on both ends of the floor. He has enviable physical tools, including a 7-foot-4 wingspan and tremendous mobility. Jackson’s ability to space the floor (40 percent from 3 and 80 percent from the line), block shots (5.7 per 40 minutes), switch on every screen and, increasingly, put the ball on the floor from the perimeter makes him an ideal fit for the modern NBA."
Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer
"Ambidextrous shot blocker with superb timing and closing speed. Effective when switching ball screens onto guards and wings. Glue-guy skills; cuts well, runs the floor hard, finishes with either hand. . . . Inconsistent rebounder who lacks physicality boxing out; he isn’t the quickest leaper from a standstill position. His lack of mass and strength means that he doesn’t deter opponents from driving the lane. Bites on too many shot fakes. Predictable when asked to create; handle gets too loose in traffic, and he tends to drive left."
Cole Zwicker, The Stepien
"Jackson Jr. is one of the youngest players in his class, and has a ton of momentum right now with his athletic and strength improvement as a late bloomer. He looks to be capable of almost every task you’d ask from a modern big, with playmaking, shooting and two-level defensive upside. A legitimate candidate to break the top five come draft time, Jackson Jr’s rise will be contingent on the degree of his performance he is in these respective areas of course while keeping in mind there is untapped potential here with his age."
Evan Tomes, NBADraft.net
"“6-foot-10 athletic big man with great length (7-foot-4 wingspan and 9-foot-1 standing reach) … Good athleticism, energy, and activity … Mobile, well-coordinated, and fluid. . . . Low release on his shot, could use more arc … Sometimes rushes it and pushes it from his chest without getting it into the shooting pocket … Shoots quick at times from three and looks off balance.”"
Final Word
Jaren Jackson Jr. is a really interesting and promising prospect. He has all the athleticism and talent that a team could want. And all the skills of a modern center.
His shot blocking is most impressive. This is a player who takes pride in his defense and has great skill in the paint and on the perimeter. That versatility from the center position is in vogue right now, but also vital to competing at the highest levels.
Jackson fits this modern mold.
And it is not just his defense. He has shown an ability to shoot from the perimeter, possibly expanding to the 3-point line. Jackson can also drive and put the ball on the floor, although at a very basic level at the moment.
It all puts together an intriguing potential package. He may take some time to develop into a true impact player, but he can do the things a team needs in the short-term until he reaches that point.
That is if he can keep everything in check.
That was something Jackson struggled with in his time with Michigan State. He was foul prone and did not play major minutes. It is hard to get a complete picture of him.
Young players — especially shot blockers — are often too eager to go for blocks. This puts them out of position at times. And that makes it difficult to judge them completely.
Jackson fall s into that trap and you might expect with a young player. That does not mean he cannot be reigned in or learn how to channel his timing and shot blocking better. He absolutely should.
But Jackson is one of the bigger potential plays in this Draft. He has all the skills a team might want in a center prospect. Especially with the way the league is trending. He can protect the rim and shot from the outside. That is plenty to build from with Jackson.
The question will be how he develops and how he will gain that control over his athletic ability.
Next: 2018 NBA Draft Preview: Who is Donte DiVincenzo
The potential is tantalizing.