Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Volume 26: All is new again

The Orlando Magic season is set to begin Monday with the first preseason game. And even though everything is new, plenty of questions still linger.

The Orlando Magic season has finally arrived.

The team conducted its annual media day last Monday and went through a week of training camp at the Amway Center. The week began the formation of the team as they try to recover from last year’s disappointing season. Coach Frank Vogel said he was largely encouraged by the effort his team put in. Their familiarity seemed to help them get things together.

There is a level of cautious optimism for the upcoming season. Coaches and management seem excited for what this team can do. But they recognize the difficulties that might come.

After all, this is largely still the same roster from last year’s 29-win disappointment. How much better can the team be?

Orlando used its offseason to work on the margins. The starting lineup from last year remains intact. Maybe that is a good thing considering how well the group played last year to end the season. But everything seems up in the air. Everything feels very fluid and relatively uncertain.

Orlando Magic

The Magic are using camp to sort through their roster. Their management is also using this year to sort through and evaluate the roster. It means a lot of pressure for players on this team and a lot of pressure to perform.

But that is far from everyone’s mind right now. Right now the Magic are focused on making themselves better. They said they are putting the focus on getting better every day. They do not want to think about the bigger picture. Not quite yet, at least.

We are though. Magic fans have nowhere else to think. Not with the promise of the season in front of them. Orlando fans want a reason to believe in this team. That is very much a big task ahead for the Magic in the long-term.

In the short-term, they are 0-0. The chance for anything to happen this season is still in front of them. It is a beautiful opportunity.

It is the beginning of the season.

There are still plenty of questions to sort through this preseason. The Magic will do their part to sort through them before the season starts. And so will we in today’s mailbag.

The debate over who should take the last starting spot for the Orlando Magic usually revolves around Jonathon Simmons. A lot of Magic fans are high on him. I cannot blame them too much for that. Jonathon Simmons is a really intriguing player.

Sure, he averaged only 6.2 points per game last year for the San Antonio Spurs. But more people point to what he did in Kawhi Leonard‘s absence. He posted 10.5 points per game in the Playoffs and 15.4 points per game and 44.8 percent field goal shooting in the final seven games of the Playoffs. Fans are most excited about what Simmons brings to the table.

It is more about the defensive attitude he brings to the game. The Magic have already noted how he has brought up the intensity of the team’s defense in practice. Simmons is likely going to knock on the door to start at some point this season. I do not anticipate the Magic sticking to the same starting lineup.

But, until I see some action on the court, I am not ready to pull the trigger and say Simmons should start. Or to expect him to start.

I still think Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier are the team’s starting wings.

Most of that is not so much a need for the Magic to improve their offense — they need to improve both their offense and defense — it is a trust in something that already works.

The Magic’s starting lineup last year to end the season — Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic — posted a +1.4 net rating. It had a 112.0 offensive rating and a 110.6 defensive rating.

Somehow the Magic put together a lineup that was absolutely killer offensively. The defense . . . it needed a lot of work.

But, it would certainly seem the lineup had earned some faith and deserved some chance to explore. As the Magic emphasized throughout training camp, familiarity with each other was a good thing and helped them grasp concepts quickly. There simply is not the time to drill down a defensive mindset in the middle of the season or practice defensive principles to the extent needed to be good.

Not to mention, the Magic completely changed their whole lineup makeup. Everyone could have used some drilling and reworking defensively to make it work. The Magic were trying to do the best with what they had.

Training camp is really the first time the team can work through the fundamentals of Frank Vogel’s defensive scheme.

This is why I lean toward Ross to start over Simmons still. It is just unclear to me — again, without having seen the Magic in action yet — whether Simmons can make such a widespread defensive impact without hurting the offense a ton.

In fact, if the defense is the concern, I might consider putting Bismack Biyombo in over Nikola Vucevic. Take Nikola Vucevic out of that lineup for Bismack Biyombo and the Magic are still a solid +1.4 net rating (although the defense is slightly worse, giving up 111.1 points per 100 possessions).

Overall with this team, I am still less concerned about the defense. I think giving Vogel a training camp to re-implement his defense will help this team tremendously. The problem for the Magic, despite that lineup’s success, will still come offensively.

My concern with taking Ross out of the starting lineup (at least for now) is that it would greatly reduce the floor spacing and the shooting in the starting lineup. Orlando still lacks a ton of shooting. Can Jonathon Simmons adequately spread the floor for Elfrid Payton to drive and for Aaron Gordon to operate in the mid-post?

A lot of that may depend on whether Vucevic has added a 3-pointer to his game and just how much Gordon has improved his shot.

I suspect there will be a stretch where Simmons is the starter for the Magic this season. I think he will take a leap in his game with a larger role — and in a much more wide-open offense.

At this point, my leaning toward Ross has more to do with trust than anything else. The Magic need to improve everywhere. For now, I want to go with what I know seemingly works.

So this question flows naturally from the last question. How are the Magic going to construct their wing rotation?

There is definitely a solid group of players to fill those roles — Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, Arron Afflalo, Jonathon Simmons, Mario Hezonja and Wesley Iwundu. Undoubtedly there are going to be a few players who are squeezed out and not going to get their playing time.

I described in the previous question where I think the starting lineup is going to go. Fournier and  Ross are my picks to start at the wing, for now. Simmons is knocking on the door but still has to gain my trust as a player before I insert him in there.

I envision Simmons as more of the team’s sixth man this year. He can play either wing position. And he has never done more than play kind of rotation-based minutes. So I am a bit more conservative with my projections for him this year. This, of course, can change dramatically once the season gets started.

That likely means the Magic will have just one more position to fill. And this will be one of the big training camp battles to watch this year throughout the preseason.

I would imagine Arron Afflalo and Mario Hezonja are battling for that last spot. Afflalo provides consistency and veteran leadership. I would imagine coach Frank Vogel is leaning toward him receiving whatever minutes are left. Hezonja still has a talent advantage. If he can click things into place, he certainly should push for minutes.

This battle will come down to production and who wins the battle in camp. The Magic are trying to win, after all.

Hezonja is still recovering from the injury that slowed him down all year last season. He said he is still working on regaining strength in his leg and feeling more and more comfortable. That puts him a bit behind in camp. I suspect, Afflalo will start the year as the backup small forward.

But Hezonja will be there. And if he can continue to get an opportunity in practice and continue to work and get healthy, he could crack the rotation. His job this year in camp is to be part of that competition — and ultimately win it by the end of the season.

For now, I still lean toward Afflalo. But Hezonja is definitely in the mix.

Nikola Vucevic and Elfrid Payton are going to be at the center of a lot of trade discussions for Orlando Magic fans all season. I am not surprised that I get a few questions about them even at this early stage of the season. And this will be something to follow throughout the season.

The place to start in dealing with both Vucevic and Payton is with management itself.

Right now, president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman and general manager John Hammond have given every public indication they are using this year to evaluate their roster. They want to get a feel for what they have first and see how they perform together before making any moves to change things up.

In other words, they probably have some pre-conceived notions about the talent on this roster but want to confirm it by getting in the weeds with them first. Also, they may not be in a position of bargaining power with any of these players yet so they have to get the team playing — and playing well — to increase their value.

It is both a reality the Magic are facing from a market value perspective and a bit of salesmanship to the fans.

At this point, then, there is no sense of whether the Magic intend to shop Vucevic or Payton or anyone aggressively. At this point, the Magic’s management is in evaluation mode. They just want to get a better feel for what they have.

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The instinct here is correct, though. Vucevic will become a very valuable trade asset as the season goes on. Especially if he is fairly productive. Vucevic has two years left on his team-friendly deal — $25 million total left. He could become valuable in a trade.

But for now, the Magic are likely to keep Vucevic as their starting center. They trust him there and his defense greatly improved last year. There is not a rush for a change. The only way a deal happens is if it improves the Magic — including Bismack Biyombo taking a step up in his game.

As for Payton, his situation is a little bit more dire for his place both on the Magic and the league.

I think it is unfair to characterize Scott Skiles‘ resignation on the showdown between him and Elfrid Payton. It was probably one of the many factors — including disagreements between Skiles and general manager Rob Hennigan and likely Scott Skiles’ ultimate lack of desire to go through the grind of a NBA season with a wholly new generation of basketball players.

The Magic ran with Payton last year. After freeing him up to play his game, they found a lot of success with him.

If anything, the Magic are using this year to confirm the way Payton played to end last season is what they can get from Payton full time. As a reminder, Payton averaged 13.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game while shooting 50.8 percent from the floor. Those are stellar numbers. Payton was a driving force for the team playing better.

The Magic are not likely to offer him an extension before the deadline this month. So he will be entering a contract year. But they can still use some time to figure out if he is part of the team’s future.

I would not call it a last chance. The Magic might be willing to bring him back or do a bit of an overpay to keep him if he performs well like he did to end last season. More than anything, they want to see some consistency from him.

It is still a bit too early to give up on him completely. His poor defensive progression has been concerning. But every contract year is a bit audition period. Payton is no different.

These questions are flowing nicely into each other, I like this.

As I noted in the previous question, it is really hard to put a good value on Elfrid Payton. He has not played consistently throughout his career. And so, like a lot of other players, he has to prove himself this year. A contract year makes it even more urgent.

I think it is safe to say I do not believe Payton will get an extension before the deadline for that reason.

If I were to offer him one, I would probably try to get a deal like the one Nikola Vucevic or Terrence Ross has. I think a four-year deal starting at $12 million per year is probably the range for Payton.

But, at this point, I am not signing him to that deal either. There are just too many questions about him and how he fits. It is not even clear if he can be a starting point guard. He needs a full year where he establishes himself clearly as the starter, something he has yet to do in a Magic uniform.

Aaron Gordon is a little bit more of a certainty, but also as big of a mystery. I am not ready to commit a ton of money to him either. And, like Payton, the number I probably want to sign him for now, I probably do not want to pull the trigger fully quite yet.

Gordon, like Payton, had his best run after the All-Star Break when he averaged 16.4 points per game seemed as close as we have seen to what Gordon might ultimately become. It is easy to forget because he has been in the league for three years that he is still just 22 years old. It feels like he is just scratching the surface.

And that makes it even more difficult to put a value on him.

If I were at the negotiating table as the Magic, I would probably start with an offer that starts at $18 million per year. If I am Aaron Gordon’s agent, I let the Magic know that we think Gordon is going to grow a ton this year and we would like to stay, but want to play the year out. The $20 million threshold is where I might start asking Gordon if he wants to accept and just have the security.

There just seems to be no reason for either the team or the player to get a commitment unless it is an incredibly team-friendly deal. And even then, especially with Payton, how much are the Magic willing to lock up long term? Especially on players who have such an uncertain fit.

I think the decision is easier with Gordon to extend him. But I fully admit, I think Gordon is going to be a really good player. I am really excited to see how he develops this year. That is more reason for Gordon to bet on himself and wait until the summer to deal with his contract.

So I do not anticipate either signing an extension before this season.

This is the great philosophical question many Orlando Magic fans are going to battle over throughout this season. Should this team just be as good as it can be until they can clear the decks (or clear the decks in the process) or tank and try to keep chasing championship dreams?

It is safe to say, even at Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac‘s best version of themselves, that neither is the kind of transcendental player to win a championship with. So the “championship-or-bust” people will argue tanking is the best way to go.

In fairness to the other side, the Magic just tried that for the last five years and you can see what kind of chaos it wreaks.

But the Magic need a plan. They are kind of caught in a strange in-between world. They are too talented and too good to tank fully. But they may not be good enough to compete for a Playoff spot. Or probably not good enough to do much even if they made the Playoffs.

This is a team with a low ceiling and a not-tanking-low floor. That is not the place any team wants to be. And the Magic are kind of stuck with their roster for now.

That makes it really hard to say what the long-term plan is for this team. It is hard to say what direction Jeff Weltman wants to take this team. It honestly might depend on how this season goes.

I have spent the whole offseason describing this season as a “no-lose season.” If the team wins, their players are a little more valuable and players like Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton likely took a step forward in their careers.

In this scenario, it likely means the Magic are content for a few years to make the Playoffs and try to use their players and team to attract free agents. That likely puts them in the middle of the Eastern Conference for a while.

If the team struggles again this year, then they get a high draft pick and their rebuild looks a little more focused around a young core that features Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac and their draft pick. Maybe that is a reason to cheer for that.

I do not think either scenario is bad. Both hold their risks. And it is still about developing young talent, making good draft picks and taking advantage of opportunities when they come.

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I think the immediate goal with this roster is to end the Playoff drought. The Magic are kind of at a dead end with this group and there is little chance they can move on from some of their players. It will take longer to get out from some of these bad contracts if they lose again.

Plus, from a business standpoint, I think the Magic are hungry to get back into the Playoffs and try to reignite the fan base. There is a lot of apathy, and I am sure ownership and management understand this. Something to prove the team has some hope and a reason to show up is paramount for the team. Even as they temper expectations.

I cannot really answer the question though. I have little clue what direction the team wants to head. My guess is they are going to try to make due with what they have. Orlando is not looking for another complete rebuild. They are going to take challenges as they come, not be married to players who do not fit what they want anymore and be opportunistic.

Will that work? I have no clue. The path forward with the assets and players the Magic have is just too uncertain.

Next: Orlando Magic's continuity not taken for granted

Thanks everyone for the mailbag questions. I will be back once the season starts for a new round of mailbag questions. Feel free to drop any questions you want me to answer on Twitter @omagicdaily or send an e-mail to me at omagicdaily@gmail.com. Until next time…